Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[dann]

Why is remain remote?
I may be a simpleton but what I understand is
1. Britain is part of the EU
2. A solid majority of currently registered voters like it that way.
I never believed there would be Brexit, and still don't just looking on from down under.

The majority seems to be much more solid if you are talking about staying or leaving in general, but about "leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated."

For most of this year, polls have shown remain ahead of leave, typically by four to six points. But in a referendum between staying in the EU and leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated, staying enjoys an 18-point lead: 59-41%.
The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed (Guardian, Dec. 20, 2018)

 

[Garrison]

It is bizarre. The majority in Parliament seems to know Brexit is a bad idea, but are afraid to say so. There's a strong possibility that a majority of the public has concluded its a bad idea, but asking them is apparently unacceptable. So we blunder towards a Brexit that a handful of little-Englanders think will turn back the clock to make Britain a great power again. The worst part is that a few years down the line we will be going cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in and we won't be getting any of the special treatment we enjoy now.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

The fundamental mistake UK negotiators have appeared to make is in thinking that the EU could or would simply ignore its own rules in order to make a bespoke deal for the UK because... BMW.

As a german living in germany, I find it extremely hard to understand where this delusion comes from. Or rather I don't understand why the british press is so utterly useless. Or even more to the point why the british people put up with such a useless press.

A few days ago the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) published a survey of german business. Membership is mandatory by law.

Almost 1800 businesses were polled. Among the questions was whether they agree with this statement:

"Der Zusammenhalt der EU und damit des Binnenmarktes darf durch einen Brexit-Deal nicht gefährdet werden, auch wenn der Handel mit dem Vereinigten Königreich Schaden nimmt."

The cohesion of the EU and thereby the single market must not be endangered by a brexit-deal, even if the trade with the united kingdom is damaged.

85% agreed. The same questions was posed in 2017 before the negotations started and the responses were the same. The DIHK has been saying that since before the referendum.

The german stance is not going to change. It was never going to. There was never any reason to believe it would be different.

 

[IanS]

I would say Remain is also always possible (up to deadline day) because I don’t think it is a given that we are leaving the EU. I admit the possibility of Remain is looking pretty remote at the moment, but it is a way out that satisfies all of the legal constraints, if not the political constraints.

I'm far from sure that “Remain” is a distant hope. E.g., apart from the fact that a majority of MPs probably did not vote to leave the EU in the first place, and that most of them would probably still prefer to remain in the EU, and apart from the fact that there was a protest march in London yesterday that drew around 1 million people calling for us to remain by revoking Article-50 … there is also an on-line petition to Revoke Article-50 (ie to remain in the EU), that has been running since Thursday 21st March, and that now (as of 1:45pm UK time) over 4.985 million signatures (to enter a vote you have to provide a valid email, and get email cross-confirmation … ie as a measure to reduce the possibility of fake voting ... so that near 5 million number is probably real/accurate).

Also, the list of 6 or so options that is expected to be put before MP's this week (ie from tomorrow), is expected to include an option to vote for revoking Article-50 and remaining in the UK.

Of course I would agree it's a significant problem that most MPs appear to think that on balance they should nevertheless accept the result of the referendum and leave the EU no matter how damaging they expect that to be to the UK economy and jobs etc. So that may persuade them against voting to revoke Article-50 even if they would really prefer to do that.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

The majority seems to be much more solid if you are talking about staying or leaving in general, but about "leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated."

I suspect that if you were to conduct separate polls for May's Deal/Remain and No Deal/Remain and then conduct an entirely separate poll on simply Leave/Remain you'd get a result on the last incompatible with the first two. This is, of course the result of the last referendum being based on reality vs unrestrained conjecture.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

5 million!

 

[BobTheCoward]

5 million!

But we never established the criteria for what number would represent something significant.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Actually, the number of solutions is at least 1. No Deal is always possible because the red lines will mean nothing if we hit the deadline and we haven’t agreed a deal. I would say Remain is also always possible (up to deadline day) because I don’t think it is a given that we are leaving the EU. I admit the possibility of Remain is looking pretty remote at the moment, but it is a way out that satisfies all of the legal constraints, if not the political constraints.

As for your point about BMW sand EU rules, I agree. In conversations I have with Brexiteers, they often claim “the EU will do a deal with us because of BMW (it’s always BMW, not Volkswagen, or Peugeot or Fiat) and Prosecco. However, they ignore the EU’s past history which has often prioritized policy ahead of economics.

I would class both eventualities you mention above as failures to find a solution rather than solutions.

No deal means the negotiation failed and revoking means the entire project failed.

Reality will always beat any amount of wishful thinking

 

[The Don]

It is bizarre. The majority in Parliament seems to know Brexit is a bad idea, but are afraid to say so. There's a strong possibility that a majority of the public has concluded its a bad idea, but asking them is apparently unacceptable. So we blunder towards a Brexit that a handful of little-Englanders think will turn back the clock to make Britain a great power again. The worst part is that a few years down the line we will be going cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in and we won't be getting any of the special treatment we enjoy now.

It's not so bizarre when you consider that the membership of the single largest party in parliament (and one which very nearly has an overall majority) are overwhelmingly in favour of leaving and even have a solid majority in favour of a no-deal Brexit. Any Conservative MP who goes out on a limb to oppose Brexit risks deselection at the next election.

You also have a the second largest party where the leader is very popular within the party but whose Brexit views are in complete opposition to the majority of members and supporters of the party. He is in absolutely no risk of losing the leadership but until and unless that were to happen, Labour policy towards the EU (leaving on unicorns and rainbows customs union terms but opposing anything that runs counter to that whether it's a second referendum, leaving on softer or harder terms - but that's what you get when your leader hasn't changed his mind on anything of note since he left the 6th form over half a century ago) will be the same.

 

[The Don]

I'm far from sure that “Remain” is a distant hope. E.g., apart from the fact that a majority of MPs probably did not vote to leave the EU in the first place, and that most of them would probably still prefer to remain in the EU, and apart from the fact that there was a protest march in London yesterday that drew around 1 million people calling for us to remain by revoking Article-50 … there is also an on-line petition to Revoke Article-50 (ie to remain in the EU), that has been running since Thursday 21st March, and that now (as of 1:45pm UK time) over 4.985 million signatures (to enter a vote you have to provide a valid email, and get email cross-confirmation … ie as a measure to reduce the possibility of fake voting ... so that near 5 million number is probably real/accurate).

Also, the list of 6 or so options that is expected to be put before MP's this week (ie from tomorrow), is expected to include an option to vote for revoking Article-50 and remaining in the UK.

Of course I would agree it's a significant problem that most MPs appear to think that on balance they should nevertheless accept the result of the referendum and leave the EU no matter how damaging they expect that to be to the UK economy and jobs etc. So that may persuade them against voting to revoke Article-50 even if they would really prefer to do that.

The problem is that both major parties are ideologically attached to Brexit.

The decision making process isn't a rational one.

 

[IanS]

Actually, the number of solutions is at least 1. No Deal is always possible because the red lines will mean nothing if we hit the deadline and we haven’t agreed a deal.

One other thing (re the above), and I'm largely agreeing with you of course (so my posts are not really disputing anything) -

- if MPs reject Mrs May's deal again next week, and if as expected the MP's are then presented with a list of options and asked to simply tick the one which they would be most likely to vote for (see footnote), then they do not have to agree a "Deal" on that at all ... all the EU wants to see is that a majority of UK MPs can agree on one preferred option (or possibly 2 options) ...

... after that, the EU are offering up to a year for the UK parliament to thrash out the specific details of that preferred option, providing that the UK does take part in the EU elections that begin on 23rd May.



Footnote - as I understand it from yesterdays BBC news website, MPs would not be asked to have separate votes on as many as 6 so-called "way forward" options, instead they would just be required to put a tick against their most preferred option from the list ... the point of doing it that way is (apparently) to avoid what happened in that series of separate bills that were debated and voted on 10 days ago, where after MPs knew the result of the first bill that was voted on that day, many of them then voted tactically on the remaining bills (which lead to some quite false numbers where the votes for some bills were surprisingly close and for others the votes gave a surprisingly wide margin).

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

As a german living in germany, I find it extremely hard to understand where this delusion comes from. Or rather I don't understand why the british press is so utterly useless. Or even more to the point why the british people put up with such a useless press.

A few days ago the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) published a survey of german business. Membership is mandatory by law.

Almost 1800 businesses were polled. Among the questions was whether they agree with this statement:

"Der Zusammenhalt der EU und damit des Binnenmarktes darf durch einen Brexit-Deal nicht gefährdet werden, auch wenn der Handel mit dem Vereinigten Königreich Schaden nimmt."

The cohesion of the EU and thereby the single market must not be endangered by a brexit-deal, even if the trade with the united kingdom is damaged.

85% agreed. The same questions was posed in 2017 before the negotations started and the responses were the same. The DIHK has been saying that since before the referendum.

The german stance is not going to change. It was never going to. There was never any reason to believe it would be different.

There is a video of David Davis talking about this. The narrative amongst leavers is that the EU isn't really democratic but just a mechanism for France and Germany to control everyone. That the EU has no real power and just dances to the tune of Angela Merkel and that if you can persuade her that Germany will lose out on car exports she can magically make fantasy a reality.

It really is an insidious little englander myth that the EU is simply a German invention to subjugate the UK because they couldn't beat us in the war. Even to the point of accusing the EU leadership of being secret Nazis.

Its pathetic really

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I don't think a majority of Torries is for Leaving.
A majority of them is for blaming the EU for everything - which leaves them in a corner they can't escape, now that they have a chance to actually leave.
But that would be catastrophic, as they would no longer get to pass the buck to Brussels.

 

[The Don]

I don't think a majority of Torries is for Leaving.

If you're talking about MPs then a narrow majority supported Remain but a number of the Remain MPs have pivoted to Leave following the vote and in response to pressure from the parliamentary party and Conservative members.

If you're talking about Conservative Party members, they are overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit (support in recent polls is in the 70%-80% range) with a significant majority in favour of a no-deal Brexit.

I think the majority of these members genuinely believe that England (I've chosen that deliberately) is better off out of the EU and fully expect great trade deals and an export boom.

 

[IanS]

The problem is that both major parties are ideologically attached to Brexit.

The decision making process isn't a rational one.

I'm not at all sure Labour are ideologically attached to Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn voted to "Remain" in the referendum, and he's being far from clear about what he wants to see as the overall Labour vote on any Brexit plan. Afaik, he's always voted for closer ties with the EU (and afaik the majority of Labour MPs also voted "Remain" in the referendum?).



Afaik - What Corbyn really wants is a General Election, and if that happens I think he's made clear that he would push for a new referendum (a so-called Peoples Vote)

 

[Darat]

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1109558407844020226







Video embedded in tweet.



When I heard the figure of a million people there I saw sceptical. It's self-reported, for a start. But after seeing this footage I can believe it. That's a lot of people.

Amazing, who knew Nigel would manage to get such a turnout of Brexiters?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

If you're talking about MPs then a narrow majority supported Remain but a number of the Remain MPs have pivoted to Leave following the vote and in response to pressure from the parliamentary party and Conservative members.

If you're talking about Conservative Party members, they are overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit (support in recent polls is in the 70%-80% range) with a significant majority in favour of a no-deal Brexit.

I think the majority of these members genuinely believe that England (I've chosen that deliberately) is better off out of the EU and fully expect great trade deals and an export boom.

Let me correct myself:

I agree that Conservatives are for leaving .... eventually.
But they are more interested in the prosperity of the UK than its level of independence. If they admit to themselves the price at which a no-deal leave would come, they might prefer to stay ...

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Of course "Conservative Party Members" is a tiny subset of "Conservative Voters" which complicates things further (true for all parties of course but it's particularly noticeable with the Tories as the subgroup is quite distinct from much of the larger group).

 

[ohms]

Let me correct myself:

I agree that Conservatives are for leaving .... eventually.
But they are more interested in the prosperity of the UK than its level of independence. If they admit to themselves the price at which a no-deal leave would come, they might prefer to stay ...

That may be the case among Tory MPs but, according to Vince Cable, May now believes that the people voted for pain and that's what we will all get:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109052365850714113

 

[catsmate]

Bob why don't you go and make your own thread where you can spout contrarian nonsense to your hearts content rather than constantly trying to make threads on real issues all about you?

Well said.