Anybody know what's going on? My mind has shut down, Brexit-wise; blown a fuse maybe. Any advice much appreciated.
What is “going on”, is that firstly -
(1) the PM will again try to present her “Deal” to the House next week. However, last night (Friday 22nd March) she gave a press statement saying that she may not bring that Bill back if she cannot find enough support over the next few days. That sounds like “political-speak” for admitting that so far she has not got enough MP's to back her deal. Also of course, the Speaker (John Bercow) has ruled that she will not be able to bring that deal back anyway unless the substance of the deal has significantly changed (and that “substance change” also seems unlikely).
However, if she
is allowed to present that same Bill again, and if MP's
do vote to accept it this time, then the UK would leave the EU on 22nd May (the revised date replacing 29th March).
Alternatively -
(2) if MP's vote against her returned Bil (or if the Speaker blocks it ... or if she herself decides not to present it), then Mrs May must return to the EU before 12th April with what the EU just described as a new plan that “indicates the way forward”, and that can be either (a) a new Exit plan that has the backing of the majority of UK MP's, or (b) a decision to hold a new referendum, or (c) a decision to hold a General Election, or (d) a decision to “Revoke Article-50” (which means the UK simply agrees to stay in the EU after all), or (e) something else entirely that nobody has thought of yet! And that all has to happen by 12th April, in which case if the EU agrees that the new “way forward” is acceptable, then the EU will grant a much longer delay for the UK to get that new “way forward” into action … that new delay could be for 6 months or even up to a whole year.
If that happens, ie if Mrs May cannot get her Deal heard or passed at the third attempt, so that she is forced to return to the EU by 12th April with an acceptable new “way forward”, then the EU expects the UK to take part in the EU elections that are taking place from 23rd to 26th May. What happens if the UK declines to take part in those elections is, afaik, unknown. Of course it's also technically possible that Mrs May will refuse to return to the EU on 12th April, or she may not have any agreed new "way foreward" to put to the EU by 12th April ... in which case we crash out of the EU (on 22nd May, I think) with a "No Deal Brexit"
Basically what all that means is that if we don't leave on 22nd May (due to the PM winning her Bill at it's third attempt), then the most likely option is that the party leaders collectively take charge of finding a new “way forward” (ie it's taken out of the sole hands of the PM), and that the UK will either agree an entirely new Deal to Exit the EU (and the EU will grant up to a year to sort that out), or else if a new “way forward” cannot be agreed amongst all the MPs, then the most likely options are either a new referendum or stay in the EU (ie “revoke” Article-50).
Last bit of news – a public on-line petition to Revoke Article-50 (ie just cancel plans for any Brexit and remain in the EU) was started on Thursday (21st March), and that now has 4 million signatures (which is probably a record, and in record quick time, for any public UK protest). And latest polls show that a new referendum would probably return a victory for ”Remain in EU” by a fairly sizeable margin of as much as up to 55% Remain vs 45% Leave (but of course the polls have proved spectacularly wrong in recent UK elections).
