Cont: The Trump Presidency X: 10-10 'til we do it again

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Like I said earlier all the old time political cats are panicking because Trump is the one thing they can't deal with, uncertainty.

So right now everybody is keeping one foot in a lifeboat while rearranging the deck chairs because nobody knows where the ship is going to be in a few hours.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
https://twitter.com/etuckerAP/status/1050028432300609536
(AP) _ Sen. Mitch McConnell is warning Democrats to think carefully about "presidential harassment" if they win majority of the House. The Kentucky Republican told AP that threats to investigate Trump's finances and businesses would "help the president get re-elected" in 2020.
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You see how generous McConnell is? So many people see him as a partisan hack who is willing thrown the country under a bus, commit treason, and use every dirty trick possible, all to advance his agenda (which apparently includes getting rapists appointed to the supreme court).

But here he is, showing his friendliness by giving free election advice to the Democrats. I guess he's trying to show some bipartisanship. Brings a tear to my eye. Really.
 
A little good news from the polling front:

From: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-dropped-1158786
President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped in every state since he was inaugurated, and in three states it fell from at least 50 percent to majority disapproval, according to a new poll.

Granted, its still a long way off before the 2020 elections, and the Democrats don't have a clear challenger yet. But, you would figure with unemployment so low, and the supposed 'victory' of getting a rapist appointed to the supreme court that the Republicans would be enjoying some polling success. The fact that Trump's approval ratings are falling is a good sign that maybe some of the 'deplorables' may be having second thoughts.
 
Segnosaur said:
A little good news from the polling front:
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Yep. Start listening to the polls again. That worked so well last time.

From your article: "In New Mexico, Trump's 52 percent approval rating in January 2017 sunk to 41 percent in September 2018 and his disapproval rating sat at 55 percent. In Arizona, the president's 55 percent approval rating when he entered office fell to 47 percent last month and his disapproval rating was at 50 percent."

He polled at 37.5 favorable and 58.5 unfavorable the day before that election he was all but guaranteed to lose.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yep. Start listening to the polls again. That worked so well last time.

From your article: "In New Mexico, Trump's 52 percent approval rating in January 2017 sunk to 41 percent in September 2018 and his disapproval rating sat at 55 percent. In Arizona, the president's 55 percent approval rating when he entered office fell to 47 percent last month and his disapproval rating was at 50 percent."

He polled at 37.5 favorable and 58.5 unfavorable the day before that election he was all but guaranteed to lose.
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I think 538 put him at 30% chance of victory in 2016. Not "all but guaranteed to lose."
 
acbytesla said:
I don't actually think he has the economy on his side and I think it's about to get worse for everyday people. Jobs are plentiful, livable incomes are not.
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We currently have a little boom going due to a combination of the ongoing recovery from the 2008 disaster and the temporary effects of Trump's tax cut. I suspect that it won't last until 2020. There will likely be a downturn (if not another total collapse like in 2008) by then. The deficit will continue to grow at record rates (though whether anybody will care remains to be seen).

I also think Trump's Katrina moment, the point at which it finally become clear even to his supporters, that he really doesn't know what he is doing, will come eventually. I'm not sure what it will take, as there has been ample evidence of this already, but that was also the case for G.W. Bush. However, for whatever reason, Katrina did it even though Iran didn't. I think it is very likely that Trump will lose in a landslide in 2020, and perhaps even fail to get the Republican nomination.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yeah and they were widely trounced for being so "Pro-Trump."
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The point is that they weren't "wrong" about his chances. He had significant odds of winning and he won.

It's like if you tell someone they have very little odds of winning the powerball and they win. That doesn't mean your claim was wrong.
 
acbytesla said:
Now I could easily be wrong, but it wouldn't shock me if he didn't run again. If it wasn't the adrenaline rush he gets from the rallies he'd want out of there.
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I think it's a possibility that he won't run for re-election, but I think it's more likely that he will run again to satisfy his ego.
 
Belz... said:
The point is that they weren't "wrong" about his chances. He had significant odds of winning and he won.

It's like if you tell someone they have very little odds of winning the powerball and they win. That doesn't mean your claim was wrong.
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And I'm not talking math on the raw literal level, I'm talking public perception.

Everybody woke up on November 6th, myself included, thinking that we were gonna go to bed that night with Hillary as President.

It's not a matter of one poll saying Trump has a 1 in 10 chance. It was that every poll, from side pretty much, was giving him practically no chance.
 
Craig4 said:
Now that we've confirmed that his father gave him a substantial fortune we know he's not a great businessman. The average Edward Jones broker in a strip mall could do better than Trump did with that $413 million.
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Well, he managed not to lose it all, which is better than a lot of people have done with inherited wealth, but it's a lot less impressive than Trump would like everybody to think it is.
 
JoeMorgue said:
A little good news from the polling front
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Yep. Start listening to the polls again. That worked so well last time.
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First of all, I have already admitted that it is fairly early in the election cycle (so that poll numbers can change quite a bit) between now and the election.

Secondly, as others have pointed out, the 'polls' weren't necessarily wrong. While he wasn't the front runner, Trump still had a significant chance to win. (And the polls themselves were not necessarily inaccurate... they showed Clinton ahead, and she ended up winning the popular vote by almost the predicted margin. The only big mistake was that they didn't delve deeply enough into the polling numbers in a couple of key states.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Oh the claim that they were paid wasn't a joke. Calling protesters paid has a long, proud history going back to the civil rights movement, of course.

No, the joke was that some were unhappy that they hadn't been paid, despite being promised payment. Trump repeated this uncritically, then people on The_Donald decided it was an incredibly clever tactic on his behalf - because if the protesters say nothing then it's out there that Soros reneges on his agreements and demonstrates the moral failings of the Dimms, but if they dispute it and show their payslips then they're proving that the protesters are paid.

Seems they didn't understand that it was a joke, either.
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My guess would be that Trump knows better than to actually believe the "paid protesters" meme- but I don't think it really matters, because I don't think he really cares whether it's true or not. He's never struck me as being a particularly bright man, but that doesn't exclude a certain shrewdness on his part. He's appealing to people in his base who sincerely do believe that the protesters are paid- they, like him, have no evidence for this belief beyond the necessity for it, and being unable to understand why anyone would disagree with their chosen position to the point of protesting against it. But they're sincere, I think; and while that sort of sincerity can be an obstacle to truth, at least truth is still an issue and its realization of it by them a possibility. Trump doesn't even have the sincerity and the truth isn't a goal- in fact, it's an obstacle he eliminates by making it irrelevant for them. These are people who think Trump is representing them when all he's really doing is preying on them.


Someone said somewhere here on this forum (don't remember who or in what thread) something to the effect of Sarah Palin probably feeling a certain resentment over not being able to do what Trump has done- one moron is as good as another, so why not her? IMO, the single worst effect of the Trump presidency is the fact that it's made her point a valid one. For many generations (certainly mine growing up), it's been said that a feature of the American political system is that any kid can hope to grow up to be President. But the implication was always that the hope would be based on growing up to be qualified to be President. Trump has turned that feature of the American system into its bug.
 
CORed said:
I think it's a possibility that he won't run for re-election, but I think it's more likely that he will run again to satisfy his ego.
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It's all about ego with him. But ego may very well be the reason he doesn't run. Imagine his reaction if he was trounced which I don't think is unreasonable. If he doesn't run, he can walk away without having lost. But know one could possibly know what is going on inside that pumpkin.
 
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