Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[Wudang]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/liam-fox-trade-secretary-britain-brexit

Yesterday's Guardian on Fox's love for the TPP and surrendering the UK government to the authority of private tribunals of lawyers.

 

[Belgian thought]

There was an age related element to the Brexit vote but the main influence, I recall, was education, or more specifically the lack of it amongst Brexit voters.

A mixture of the two - source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/06/24/britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu

"A striking amount of the variation in the vote can be explained by demographics. According to an exit poll by Lord Ashcroft, 73% of voters aged 18-24 voted for Remain, while 60% of voters aged 65 and over voted for Leave. Similar divisions were apparent across education levels: 57% of degree-holders voted to stay in the European Union, while most of those with only secondary-school educations wanted to leave."

ETA: In addition, those without a passport also made up a large proportion of leavers.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Even if they realise that "they've been had" (and I think most Brexiteers would accept almost literally anything as a price worth paying to be out of the EU), we've had the referendum, Brexit means Brexit and there's nothing more to say.

WP has a lengthy article on the subject. Do not make the mistake to interpret this as a defect specific to brexiteers.

Escalation of commitment​

Escalation of commitment is a human behavior pattern in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from some decision, action, or investment nevertheless continues the same behavior rather than alter course. The actor maintains behaviors that are irrational, but align with previous decisions and actions.

Economists and behavioral scientists use a related term, sunk-cost fallacy, to describe the justification of increased investment of money, time, lives, etc. in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment ("sunk cost"); despite new evidence suggesting that the cost, beginning immediately, of continuing the decision outweighs the expected benefit.

In sociology, irrational escalation of commitment or commitment bias describe similar behaviours. The phenomenon and the sentiment underlying it are reflected in such proverbial images as "throwing good money after bad", "in for a penny, in for a pound", and "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again".

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Well apparently you will need a boat since Ireland is threatening to ground flights from the UK, despite the fact that the RAF provides air defence for Ireland!

What's being said here? That Ireland should accept UK supremacy because military might?

Also over flight rights are a non EU issue, and international agreements pre-date the EU. Mr Varadkar seems to be turning a bit Trumpish.

It's hardly news that aviation is the sector hardest hit by losing EU regulation. I am not really sure what's wrong with what Varadkar said.

 

[Lothian]

What's being said here? That Ireland should accept UK supremacy because military might?


It's hardly news that aviation is the sector hardest hit by losing EU regulation. I am not really sure what's wrong with what Varadkar said.

Given a hard Brexit will lose our access to the EU system that stops planes flying into each other, it should not be an issue. Any airline based here will relocate to Europe.

Briutisselsh airways

 

[The Don]

Given a hard Brexit will lose our access to the EU system that stops planes flying into each other, it should not be an issue. Any airline based here will relocate to Europe.

Briutisselsh airways

BA is already part of IAG. They can relocate to Spain at a drop of a hat.

 

[The Don]

It's hardly news that aviation is the sector hardest hit by losing EU regulation. I am not really sure what's wrong with what Varadkar said.

It's pointing out the flaws in Brexit and the lack of foresight in consideration of the Brexit process. This is not popular among Brexiteers for a variety of reasons.

 

[ceptimus]

A mixture of the two - source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/06/24/britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu

"A striking amount of the variation in the vote can be explained by demographics. According to an exit poll by Lord Ashcroft, 73% of voters aged 18-24 voted for Remain, while 60% of voters aged 65 and over voted for Leave. Similar divisions were apparent across education levels: 57% of degree-holders voted to stay in the European Union, while most of those with only secondary-school educations wanted to leave."

ETA: In addition, those without a passport also made up a large proportion of leavers.

You should remember that a much smaller proportion of the population went into further education in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, so counting 'degree-holders' gives an automatic bias towards counting younger people.

 

[Information Analyst]

You should remember that a much smaller proportion of the population went into further education in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, so counting 'degree-holders' gives an automatic bias towards counting younger people.

No, that just raises the question whether it was youth or education that made so many young and educated people support Remain.

 

[ceptimus]

You don't understand how the correlation between youth and percentage of the population taking degree courses biases the results when counting 'degree-holders'?

Your use of 'educated' would imply that there weren't any educated people before academic degrees were invented. If you want to count the proportion of the 'educated' population of a given age, you need to choose a measure that hasn't steadily increased over time - or at least compensate for how the proportion of the population eligible for that measure has changed.

 

[ceptimus]

If you were to count the percentage of voters who learned to use the internet before they were 20 years old, I'm sure you'd find that a large proportion of them voted Remain. But this is just the same as measuring the proportion of younger people that voted remain, as no older voter stood any chance of internet use before the age of 20 - for the simple reason that the internet wasn't invented then.

Counting degree-holders shows the same sort of bias - though not to such an obvious extent as the internet example.

 

[Lothian]

You don't understand how the correlation between youth and percentage of the population taking degree courses biases the results when counting 'degree-holders'?

Your use of 'educated' would imply that there weren't any educated people before academic degrees were invented. If you want to count the proportion of the 'educated' population of a given age, you need to choose a measure that hasn't steadily increased over time - or at least compensate for how the proportion of the population eligible for that measure has changed.

You are missing the point.

More young people reach a higher level of education and young people voted to remain rather that leave. I think we all agree with that.

The question I.A. posed is why did young people vote to remain. Was it because they are young or because they generally have reached a higher level of education?

 

[The Don]

You are missing the point.

More young people reach a higher level of education and young people voted to remain rather that leave. I think we all agree with that.

The question I.A. posed is why did young people vote to remain. Was it because they are young or because they generally have reached a higher level of education?

As I understood it, there is a correlation between being older and voting Leave i.e. a higher proportion of people of those people without a degree over 60 voted leave than those people without a degree under 25.

I also understand there is a correlation with having a higher degree of education and voting Remain i.e. a higher proportion of people of those people with a degree over 60 voted Remain than those people without a degree over 60.

So the answer appears to be "both".

 

[ceptimus]

I'm arguing that 'higher level of education' is the wrong term for degree-holders.

In the past, when fewer people took degrees, they might be just as educated, but their education took the form of reading books, serving apprenticeships, and so on.

Just because about 50% of the younger population now take higher education courses doesn't really correlate with the percentage of the population that is 'smart' or 'educated'.

 

[ceptimus]

The question I.A. posed is why did young people vote to remain. Was it because they are young or because they generally have reached a higher level of education?

They've never experienced life outside the EU, so they are voting for the devil they know.

Older people can compare life outside and inside the EU, so they're making a more informed choice. In that respect (knowledge about the EU) they are 'more educated' than the youngsters.

 

[Degeneve]

Given a hard Brexit will lose our access to the EU system that stops planes flying into each other, it should not be an issue. Any airline based here will relocate to Europe.

Briutisselsh airways

The Brexit should prevent the UK to keep its membership in the EASA which is an EU agency dealing with civil aviation safety.

This should however remain without incidence on the UK membership in Eurocontrol, which is established according to another treaty, and is in charge of air traffic management in Europe. Nevertheless, since the EU is Member of Eurocontrol too, there might be an impact on how the relations between the UK and Eurocontrol will be organized post Brexit.

 

[The Don]

They've never experienced life outside the EU, so they are voting for the devil they know.

Older people can compare life outside and inside the EU, so they're making a more informed choice. In that respect (knowledge about the EU) they are 'more educated' than the youngsters.

Not really. Life outside the EU was in the 1970s and thus is subject to the vagaries of nostalgia and the fragility of human memory.

The world is also a very different place than it was 45 years ago. Just being out of the EU won't result in an immediate return to where the UK was in 1970 or 1960.

 

[ceptimus]

Not really. Life outside the EU was in the 1970s and thus is subject to the vagaries of nostalgia and the fragility of human memory.

The world is also a very different place than it was 45 years ago. Just being out of the EU won't result in an immediate return to where the UK was in 1970 or 1960.

Many things have changed since the 70s. But it remains a FACT that younger voters have never experienced life outside the EU, whereas older voters have.

 

[The Don]

Many things have changed since the 70s. But it remains a FACT that younger voters have never experienced life outside the EU, whereas older voters have.

It's also a FACT that they're more likely to have had mumps - so what ?

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Young and old people have different interests. Take FoM. While you are young, the world is your oyster. You can do anything. FoM means that you can just pack your bags and go live in Berlin or Paris or wherever.
Losing FoM means losing personal freedom.

When you are old, you know (if) you are never going to leave your area.