Passing Peak Trump?

hgc said:
First of all, yes this topic needs its own thread. This is about the long-term trend in Donald Trump's position in this race relative to the competition for the GOP nomination.

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage. The purpose of this thread is to track Trump's progress in poll standings and speculate on his evolving chances of being the nominee.

I'm not saying that Trump is definitely not going to win this nomination. But if he's not going to win it, then we will see a slide somewhere, sometime. Has that slide started now? Trump is a creature of the obsessive coverage by the political and entertainment media, which is a milieu where he generally is the most capable exploiter of the features of the landscape. But when the media coverage starts to slacken, if for no other reason than that the entertainment gets stale, he's probably going to suffer in his popularity.

Thoughts?
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applecorped said:
Have we passed Peak Trump yet?
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IMO no.

He will be President for another six and a half years and his legacy, in terms of the way in which the US electorate look at facts and lies and the trust (or otherwise) that they have in their representatives will pervade for decades.

If "Trumpism" becomes the new norm and the two major parties become mirrors of each other, disregarding basic facts, brazenly lying in the face of irrefutable proof and retreating to the support of their own echo-chambers then Peak Trump is years, decades even, away.

If the US electorate reject this kind of politics and instead returns to business as usual, where politicians have the common decency to at least look a little shifty when caught out in a lie, then Peak Trump will have occurred at some point during President Trump's second term.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Impeachment aside, you still believe Trump will win re-election?

No way.
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I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:

  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
 
The Don said:
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:

  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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And the constants: (1) No change in major party donors, their motives, and the singular passion for money absent all other criteria. (2) Rapidly increasing sophistication of the means and methods for spreading propaganda. (3) The ongoing shift in demographics concentrating educated voters in few voting districts, denying an informed citizenry access to power and elevating would-be prophets and saviors. (4) The Protestant Taliban, preaching the Utopian Freedom Gospel (Whites only, shhh).
 
The Don said:
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:

  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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He is a useful idiot. They just can't believe how much of an idiot.
 
The Don said:
Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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If 'not Trump' isn't good enough, then I think the US is, not to put to fine a point on it, **********.
 
The Don said:
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:

  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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Agree with the above, or there could be a major SNAFU shortly before election time that could hurt his chances.

As bad as the Stinky in Helsinki was, I think it will pass soon with the speed at which the news cycle moves these days.

Barring any of that, I think he stands a pretty decent chance in 2020.
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
Agree with the above, or there could be major SNAFU shortly before election time that could hurt his chances.
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I genuinely cannot think of anything the man could do that would make any difference.

Even the most egregious acts will have the more simple members of the US voting public respond with 'Well, I'll show you!', and voting for him - These people are probably very susceptible to reverse psychology*. Might help his turn out, in fact.
 
The Don said:
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:

  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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Isn't there also the possiblity of Mueller or others digging up something so incriminating that he loses popularity or is even impeached?
 
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