Bitcoin - Part 2

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Craig B said:
In other words, may I take it that your 21 months is a limit, and if it doesn't happen by then it's not going to, in your opinion?
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No.

If the Dec 2013 - Dec 2017 cycle is repeated then the price of bitcoin should bottom out by about September 2019 and peak again by December 2021.

Of course, even though it has started out the same, there is no reason to believe that this cycle will be the same all the way through. The cycle may have a different length entirely. The peak may or may not exceed $19,000. There may not even be a cycle at all. Anybody who thinks that they can foretell what the future will bring is talking through their - er - hat.
 
psionl0 said:
The cycle may have a different length entirely. The peak may or may not exceed $19,000. There may not even be a cycle at all. Anybody who thinks that they can foretell what the future will bring is talking through their - er - hat.
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You make it sound like no prediction at all is possible, but that's not true. The Universe doesn't operate totally randomly. Given sufficient information and knowledge of a phenomenon's behavior it is possible to predict what it will do in the future - with a certain degree of confidence. That is the basis of Science, but even non-scientists can often make quite accurate predictions when they know and understand the subject.

You are right to reject out of hand any predictions made by bare assertion, but not those which have supporting evidence and a sound methodology. Numerous experts who have studied the economics of bubbles are saying the same thing - the current bubble is it for Bitcoin. Others point out that Bitcoin's fundamentals are too weak for it to thrive in its present form. The people making these predictions are not Bitcoin evangelists or industry shills - they really know what they are talking about! For sure they could all be wrong (and Global Warming could be a myth, and we could living in the Matrix) but it's a pretty safe bet they are right.

You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me.
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Actually I didn't have to search at all, that was simply the leading article on coindesk.com when I went there to check the price.

Interestingly the proportion of 'negative' articles seems to be increasing, even on sites that openly promote bitcoin. Is this a reflection of the current sentiment, an attempt to manipulate the price, or simply because there really is more bad news out there? Whatever the motive, at least bitcoiners are now being exposed to the 'other side of the coin' which might help to dampen unrealistic expectations.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
Actually I didn't have to search at all, that was simply the leading article on coindesk.com when I went there to check the price.
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Give it up. That coindesk article was a massive FAIL.

When it comes to how long bitcoin will last and how many price bubbles it will go through, you know about as much as our family dog.
 
Samson said:
Happy days for the bears. Is this the end? 6177
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No idea :confused:

The one thing I have demonstrated repeatedly in this and other threads is that I cannot pick markets in general (though I've never claimed to be able to) and my track record on bitcoin is particularly bad :o

I've never properly understood how resilient its value is and the mechanisms that support it.

The only thing I can confidently say is that the value of bitcoin will rise, fall or stay the same over the coming weeks or months and that statement is useless.
 
One Fifth of Bitcoin Permanently Lost

One Fifth of Bitcoin is Permanently Lost, Real Supply of BTC is Very Low
According to an article in the The Wall Street Journal 20% of all the Bitcoin in circulation is actually lost, existing in limbo, either forgotten about or inaccessible to its owner. Bitcoin is stored in a digital wallet which can only be accessed with the owner’s personal identification number. Unlike the PIN from a bank issued ATM card, a digital wallet PIN address is much longer and considered to be virtually unhackable.
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Or is it?

Going low tech Jason Miller of South Carolina has tuned his skills as a hypnotist to manipulating his client’s memories in order to reveal the repressed information knocking around in their sub-conscious.

“Everybody has a photographic memory. With skilled hypnotic regression, you can access that photograph.” Miller says about his services, that have so far had a 50% success rate, he charges .5 Bitcoin up front and 5% fee of whatever is recovered.
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"When I click my fingers you will wake up not remembering anything you said while under hypnosis. CLICK. I'm sorry Mr. smith, apparently you don't have a photographic memory after all." Later... "All your bitcoins mysteriously moved to someone else's wallet? How peculiar!".
 
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psionl0 said:
:sdl: :sdl: :sdl: You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane! :sdl: :sdl: :sdl:

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
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Also, this isn't winning or losing, it is just a price. A high price.doesnt "win".
 
BobTheCoward said:
Also, this isn't winning or losing, it is just a price. A high price.doesnt "win".
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Actually it does.

Win/Loss Ratio
What is the 'Win/Loss Ratio'

The win/loss ratio is the ratio of the total number of winning trades to the number of losing trades. It does not take into account how much was won or lost, but simply if they were winners or losers.

The win/loss ratio is used to calculate the risk/reward ratio, which is the profit potential of a trade relative to its loss potential. The profit potential of a trade is determined by the difference between the entry price and the target price at which a profit will be made.
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For sellers that means a high(er) price 'wins'.

But for hardcore bitcoiners it's much more than that. They aren't just investing in bitcoin financially - they are also emotionally invested in its success. By design bitcoin should continually increase in price as more people adopt it. If it does then it is 'winning' against fiat currencies. But if the price continually goes down (like it is doing now) then it is perceived as 'losing'.

Of course you could say that the price itself is just a number and therefore cannot 'win', but that would be like saying that the number 1 in a race is just a place. The terms 'winning streak' and 'losing streak' are commonly applied to stock markets when prices are going up and down, so it is entirely appropriate to use the same terms for bitcoin.
 
Price is only one indicator

No doubt many bitcoiners are feeling quite depressed with the current price slide, but price is only part of the picture. Looking at the graph below (from data.biycoinity.org) it is obvious that trading volume is even more depressed. This is not a good sign for a product which is supposed to replace all fiat currency within a few short years. but what does it mean?

Is the low volume caused by HOLDLers waiting for the price to go up again, and if so how long before they lose patience? Or is it just that bitcoin was previously in a massive bubble, and trading volumes are now returning to normal? If so, are the predictions of $1M per bitcoin (a mathematical certainty if bitcoin becomes widely adopted) still on track?

Some nihilists say that nothing is certain, therefore predicting the future is impossible. That's nonsense of course (even my dog knows better) but just what do we need to make a prediction which is better than a random coin toss? Firstly we can look at the fundamentals - what does bitcoin offer that could give it lasting value? Secondly, will enough people take it up to hold that value? And lastly, can it actually achieve that status in practice? If we can answer these questions then we should have a reasonable idea of where it might go - and where it won't.

One thing we do know is that with current technology it's impossible for bitcoin to overtake (or even equal) the transaction volumes of fiat currencies. This may be why numerous banking and finance experts are saying that bitcoin is toast. The numbers just don't add up.

But that doesn't mean it can't carve a niche for itself as 'digital gold' or 'anonymous money'. If so then it may still go to the moon! If volumes start going up again it indicates people are using bitcoin more, so it probably has a future even if the price doesn't change much. OTOH if they don't...
 

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Why GPU Pricing Is About to Drop Even Further

Cryptocurrency Demand Dwindled
By all accounts, the GPU pricing crisis was a result of the cryptocurrency mining boom. It started with AMD graphics cards (they were better suited for the algorithms used for various cryptocurrencies), and Nvidia pricing soon followed suit as Ethereum (which could be mined exceptionally well on 10-series GPUs) exploded. As the value of cryptocurrencies started to decline in Q1, the demand for the GPUs dwindled, and the arrival of new ASIC miners that were more efficient than consumer-grade GPUs further decreased the need for commercial miners to dip into gaming markets for capable mining hardware. However, it took a while for pricing to drop back to (or close to) original MSRPs as we see them today. With cryptocurrency miners sated, gamers now have plenty of in-stock graphics card options at different price points, and the price tags will continue to get chopped down over time.
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https://www.tomshardware.com/news/why-gpu-pricing-will-drop-further,37444.html

Looks like I'll finally be building a decent video-editing PC with my daughter.
 
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Bitcoin: helping to change our world - and not in a good way...

How Russian Spies Hid Behind Bitcoin in Hacking Campaign
In early 2016, Russian intelligence officers obtained a new pool of the virtual currency Bitcoin. They quickly put the digital money to work.

The Russian spies used some of the Bitcoins to pay for the registration of a website, dcleaks.com, where they would later post emails that had been stolen from Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. When the operatives needed a computer server to host the dcleaks site, they paid for that with Bitcoins as well.

Bitcoin, the indictment added, “allowed the conspirators to avoid direct relations with traditional financial institutions, allowing them to evade greater scrutiny of their identities and sources of funds.”

The Russians took several steps to obscure their Bitcoin transactions, according to the indictment. They bought some Bitcoins on so-called peer-to-peer exchanges, where buyers and sellers can interact directly without exchanges collecting details on either side.
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All those libertarians who thought 'anonymous money' was such a good idea must be proud of what they created. As well as being useful for buying illegal drugs and hiring hitmen, it can also help you influence voters in foreign countries and soften them up for invasion!
 
Roger Ramjets said:
How Russian Spies Hid Behind Bitcoin in Hacking Campaign


All those libertarians who thought 'anonymous money' was such a good idea must be proud of what they created. As well as being useful for buying illegal drugs and hiring hitmen, it can also help you influence voters in foreign countries and soften them up for invasion!
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You can blame the war on drugs for the emergence of crypto-currencies. Trampling all over individual rights -especially in regard to privacy - was bound to produce a backlash sooner or later.

If "Russian spies" find bitcoin useful then your "death to bitcoin" cries are going to go unheard of for a while yet.
 
Ka-Boing! Bitcoin's Price Shoots Up $600 in 30 Minutes

Above $7K: Bitcoin's Price Shoots Up $600 in 30 Minutes
Bitcoin's price shot well above $7,000 Tuesday in a dramatic move that took the cryptocurrency to a level it hasn't seen in more than a month.

As of press time, the world's most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at $7,368.22, up more than $600 from the day's open at $6,726.40. Indeed, the market moved quickly, posting the gains over the course of 45 minutes.
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I predicted this 3 weeks ago...
Roger Ramjets said:
Fools! The price has bottomed out and will be back up to $7000~8000 within a few weeks. This dead cat still has a few bounces left in it...
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This short squeeze is an ugly sight.


it has a long way to go, maybe 8800.

Rat poison.
 
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