Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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I'm sure you could certainly find anything you want by arbitrarily deciding to use a subset of the population. But residents of Scotland are a very special subset. They are the subset that in 2014 was told that the only way they could ensure continued membership of the EU was by voting No in the Indyref. This they did.

Then they were asked if they wanted to remain in the EU. Every electoral division of the country said yes. But they are to be taken out against their will and contrary to the assurances given to them.
The subset of the UK population which has had these experiences comprises the population of Scotland, not anywhere else. That subset is not an "arbitrary" subset of the UK.

I believe over 30% of those that voted in Scotland voted to leave? Aren't "they" also a "they"?
 
The UK voted on whether or not to stay or leave. They never voted for the subsequent detail that they weren't told about, the detail that is now becoming apparent. The detail is now is not good, and as a consequence there is now a majority to stay, at least according to reputable polls recently taken. A50 can legally be withdrawn, and any government worth it sort and with leadership and guts, would now do the best thing for the UK, and abandon the negotiations, withdraw the A50, and get on with running the country in the best interests of the population as whole.

Well you would say that.....



As would I.
 
This same old nonsense again! The referendum question was clear as crystal.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

The losing side (remain supporters) were perfectly clear what a leave vote would mean right up until the point they lost - and before the vote they constantly harped on about what (in their opinion) the dire consequences of making the wrong choice from these two polar opposites would be. As soon as they lost they suddenly changed their tune and began to claim that the people didn't really know what they were voting for and that there are lots of different ways of "leaving" most of which are very close to "not leaving really."

That was part of the what many of us who were on the side of remain were saying throughout the campaign and what the leave campaigners studiously ignored.
 
That was part of the what many of us who were on the side of remain were saying throughout the campaign and what the leave campaigners studiously ignored.

Absolutely. I can remember saying that even if we leave we should should still retain access to the single market, and the leave campaign website was arguing for exactly the same thing, no doubt in order to maximise their vote. Quite a different story now eighteen months on.
 
This same old nonsense again! The referendum question was clear as crystal.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

The losing side (remain supporters) were perfectly clear what a leave vote would mean right up until the point they lost - and before the vote they constantly harped on about what (in their opinion) the dire consequences of making the wrong choice from these two polar opposites would be. As soon as they lost they suddenly changed their tune and began to claim that the people didn't really know what they were voting for and that there are lots of different ways of "leaving" most of which are very close to "not leaving really."

The remain side were quite clear what it could mean, and the leave side denied that was true. Now that it is becoming reality the leave side insist that was what people voted for.

A rather bizarre claim to make that somehow those who voted to leave were voting not for what the leave side were proposing and championing but rather voting for the worst case scenario their opponents were warning against.
 
From Badscience

dyqik said:
Those 58 impact papers on the effect of Brexit that ministers are supposed to turn over to parliament? It seems they don't actually exist.

https://tttthreads.com/thread/927877152397197315

Publicising the impact assessments will weaken their negotiating position because they will show that they haven't been assessed?

“it is not the case that 58 sectoral impact assessments exist” (David Davis)
 
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I believe over 30% of those that voted in Scotland voted to leave? Aren't "they" also a "they"?

Yes, just over a million of them. If they had voted Remain along with the 1.7 million who did, the UK-wide result would have been pretty much reversed. Mind you, the same can be said about the 1.5 million Londoners who voted Leave, compared to the 2.3 million who voted Remain. And, of course, for every Scottish Remain voter, eight English voters made the same choice.
 
Absolutely. I can remember saying that even if we leave we should should still retain access to the single market, and the leave campaign website was arguing for exactly the same thing, no doubt in order to maximise their vote. Quite a different story now eighteen months on.

Yeah they basically promised the voters every advantage of EU membership with none of the drawbacks. In fairly short order they were talking about a hard brexit, the very thing the remain campaign had been accused of scaremongering for bringing up during the campaign.
 
I think that the EU would have to agree, and they might well want certain concessions to remain. Going to the euro would seem a basic start.


No: there's very good reason to believe that the EU (or the EC and European Parliament, to be more precise) would want the UK to remain members of the EU even under exactly the same conditions that existed prior to the referendum.

And there are two major factors underpinning this: 1) the UK is a very strong component of the EU (the second largest economy in the EU after Germany, a major contributor to the EU budget, and a major draw in any EU trade negotiations), and thus the UK leaving the EU would be a big economic blow to the EU; and 2) the UK leaving the EU would deal a massive blow to the integrity and (potential) viability of the whole "European Project", as well as acting as a philosophical and practical template for other nations whose populations might be more easily tempted to vote to leave as a result.

And that's why I think the EC/European Parliament would most likely jump on the opportunity to revoke Article 50 and allow the UK to remain in the EU as if nothing had ever happened. I don't think they will push for Euro membership or any other UK "concessions" or stipulations as some sort of price to pay for revoking A50.


On a wider related issue.... my personal view (and one which I've held for many months now) is that May and other senior pro-remain Conservative grandees met with EU/EC leaders post-referendum and had an off-the-record discussion along the following lines: "We don't want to leave the EU, and you don't want us to leave the EU. But we need to give the strong impression that we are diligently and faithfully enacting the will of the people. However, we will ensure that there will be a UK parliamentary vote on the final deal, and you and we will also ensure that the only deal the UK can obtain will be a very poor outcome for the UK. We will then be confident of three things: 1) the UK parliament will vote against ratification of the deal; 2) the UK public will be able to be convinced that in light of the above events, a second referendum is appropriate and fair; and 3) the outcome of such a second referendum will be a "remain" majority. You will then be able to revoke Article 50."

I realise that this has more than a whiff of "conspiracy theory" about it, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that this is the long game here. Of course, I could be miles off-base. Time will tell.
 
The UK voted on whether or not to stay or leave. They never voted for the subsequent detail that they weren't told about, the detail that is now becoming apparent. The detail is now is not good, and as a consequence there is now a majority to stay, at least according to reputable polls recently taken. A50 can legally be withdrawn, and any government worth it sort and with leadership and guts, would now do the best thing for the UK, and abandon the negotiations, withdraw the A50, and get on with running the country in the best interests of the population as whole.


There is IMO zero chance that the UK government would seek the revocation of A50 without at the very least a) the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations and the understanding of the deal that was on the table, and b) the rejection of that deal in a UK parliamentary vote. I also believe that even with those two conditions, the UK government would not seek A50 revocation without also c) a second UK referendum whose outcome was a majority for "remain".

On the pre-referendum campaigning issue, it's important to remember that actually neither "side" in the debate ("Remain" and "Leave") really knew what a Brexit future would look like in practice. And in that context, it was always inevitable that the "Leave" side would make Brexit look as rosy as possible, and the "Remain" side would make Brexit look as apocalyptic as possible. I believe it's also a truism that a large majority of "Leave" voters really had no idea what they were actually voting for, and did not have the information or the understanding to figure out the true ramifications. I think a sizeable proportion of "Leave" voters did so out of a combination of the superficial attraction of the "take back control from faceless Eurocrats who are seizing loads of our money and loads of our capacity to make our own political decisions" mantra, the insular (and ignorant) immigration issue, and some form of a prevailing desire to reject the authority of "establishment" political parties (and remember, the official position of the Conservatives, Labour, LibDem and SNP was for "Remain") in favour of "outsider" agitators (funnily enough, I think a very similar psychology drove the rise of Corbyn to become Labour leader, and in turn the better-than-expected performance of Labour under Corbyn in the last General Election).

I think that the decision to hold the referendum was a disastrous mistake by Cameron and his advisers - a mistake for himself, for his party/Government, for the country, and for the EU. I think he (wrongly) bargained that he would go to the EU with the threat of a "Leave" result, use that as a device to radically alter (i.e. improve) the UK's deal with Europe, return to Westminster triumphantly waving his metaphorical Neville Chamberlain "piece of paper", ride to a "Remain" outcome in the referendum as a result of his renegotiation, and cement his place in UK political history as a result (in addition to strengthening his position within his own party, and his party's position among the electorate). I also suspect that the original 1970s referendum on entering the EEC was probably a significant factor in the decision to put the "Leave"/"Remain" decision to a referendum, rather than (as should have been the case) leave it entirely in the hands of parliament (whose lower house is, after all, elected to represent the population....).


Disclaimer: I was (and still am) a strong proponent of "Remain", albeit under different terms and under a significant reorganisation of the EU as a whole.
 
No: there's very good reason to believe that the EU (or the EC and European Parliament, to be more precise) would want the UK to remain members of the EU even under exactly the same conditions that existed prior to the referendum.

And there are two major factors underpinning this: 1) the UK is a very strong component of the EU (the second largest economy in the EU after Germany, a major contributor to the EU budget, and a major draw in any EU trade negotiations), and thus the UK leaving the EU would be a big economic blow to the EU; and 2) the UK leaving the EU would deal a massive blow to the integrity and (potential) viability of the whole "European Project", as well as acting as a philosophical and practical template for other nations whose populations might be more easily tempted to vote to leave as a result.

And that's why I think the EC/European Parliament would most likely jump on the opportunity to revoke Article 50 and allow the UK to remain in the EU as if nothing had ever happened. I don't think they will push for Euro membership or any other UK "concessions" or stipulations as some sort of price to pay for revoking A50.


On a wider related issue.... my personal view (and one which I've held for many months now) is that May and other senior pro-remain Conservative grandees met with EU/EC leaders post-referendum and had an off-the-record discussion along the following lines: "We don't want to leave the EU, and you don't want us to leave the EU. But we need to give the strong impression that we are diligently and faithfully enacting the will of the people. However, we will ensure that there will be a UK parliamentary vote on the final deal, and you and we will also ensure that the only deal the UK can obtain will be a very poor outcome for the UK. We will then be confident of three things: 1) the UK parliament will vote against ratification of the deal; 2) the UK public will be able to be convinced that in light of the above events, a second referendum is appropriate and fair; and 3) the outcome of such a second referendum will be a "remain" majority. You will then be able to revoke Article 50."

I realise that this has more than a whiff of "conspiracy theory" about it, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that this is the long game here. Of course, I could be miles off-base. Time will tell.

Sorry, but you are vastly overestimating your standing, your value and such.

There is fair resentment towards Britain and all of those extremely special exceptions you got and nobody else. They will be for most part gone. You won't be getting old stuff back.

In fact, Britain's value for EU is now mostly in Brexit. You are doing such perfect job at it, that it is killing most of exiters elsewhere or outright turning them into sort of supporters of EU.
 
I believe over 30% of those that voted in Scotland voted to leave? Aren't "they" also a "they"?
How can anyone reasonably tell us that a tiny majority in the U.K. is the will of the people of the UK but a substantial majority in Scotland is not the will of the people of Scotland?
 
How can anyone reasonably tell us that a tiny majority in the U.K. is the will of the people of the UK but a substantial majority in Scotland is not the will of the people of Scotland?
I've no idea, maybe ask someone who has claimed that?
 
From Badscience



Publicising the impact assessments will weaken their negotiating position because they will show that they haven't been assessed?

“it is not the case that 58 sectoral impact assessments exist” (David Davis)

Well the poor man only works 3 days a week, how can you expect him to do every little thing ? :p :D

Extremely well managed, the Brexit process would have, IMO, had a pretty bad impact on the UK economy and hence on the UK as a whole.

At the moment, omnishambles doesn't even begin to cover it. My Brexit-supporting mates down the pub are getting increasingly worried that things aren't going to turn out as rosy as they would have hoped and that David Davis isn't really on top of things.
 
Stupidity from the NHS Chief:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-41908302

I'm virulently anti-Leave but even I know enough to accept that any money wouldn't become available until after payments to the EU cease......

Yeah - I know he should be trying to get the money the NHS England needs but this is rather silly.

I've listened to him in the past and he seems quite a sensible person so I'm assuming this is an act of desperation, tying to leverage political embarrassment to get the required increase in funding.

(Plus of course the £350 wouldn't just be for NHS England - there are other NHSs in the UK that have a claim to some of that money if it is going to be dished out.)
 
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