Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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Darat said:
Yeah - I know he should be trying to get the money the NHS England needs but this is rather silly.

I've listened to him in the past and he seems quite a sensible person so I'm assuming this is an act of desperation, tying to leverage political embarrassment to get the required increase in funding.

(Plus of course the £350 wouldn't just be for NHS England - there are other NHSs in the UK that have a claim to some of that money if it is going to be dished out.)
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Given the number of things that UK's EU contributions would have to cover, I think this figure is closer to the mark as regards the additional amount the NHS can expect annually :p
 
The Don said:
Given the number of things that UK's EU contributions would have to cover, I think this figure is closer to the mark as regards the additional amount the NHS can expect annually :p
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As much as that? You are being optimistic.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
The remain side were quite clear what it could mean, and the leave side denied that was true. Now that it is becoming reality the leave side insist that was what people voted for.

A rather bizarre claim to make that somehow those who voted to leave were voting not for what the leave side were proposing and championing but rather voting for the worst case scenario their opponents were warning against.
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Well the position is now "no one could possibly have been dumb enough to believe us".
 
LondonJohn said:
No: there's very good reason to believe that the EU (or the EC and European Parliament, to be more precise) would want the UK to remain members of the EU even under exactly the same conditions that existed prior to the referendum.

And there are two major factors underpinning this: 1) the UK is a very strong component of the EU (the second largest economy in the EU after Germany, a major contributor to the EU budget, and a major draw in any EU trade negotiations), and thus the UK leaving the EU would be a big economic blow to the EU; and 2) the UK leaving the EU would deal a massive blow to the integrity and (potential) viability of the whole "European Project", as well as acting as a philosophical and practical template for other nations whose populations might be more easily tempted to vote to leave as a result.

And that's why I think the EC/European Parliament would most likely jump on the opportunity to revoke Article 50 and allow the UK to remain in the EU as if nothing had ever happened. I don't think they will push for Euro membership or any other UK "concessions" or stipulations as some sort of price to pay for revoking A50.


On a wider related issue.... my personal view (and one which I've held for many months now) is that May and other senior pro-remain Conservative grandees met with EU/EC leaders post-referendum and had an off-the-record discussion along the following lines: "We don't want to leave the EU, and you don't want us to leave the EU. But we need to give the strong impression that we are diligently and faithfully enacting the will of the people. However, we will ensure that there will be a UK parliamentary vote on the final deal, and you and we will also ensure that the only deal the UK can obtain will be a very poor outcome for the UK. We will then be confident of three things: 1) the UK parliament will vote against ratification of the deal; 2) the UK public will be able to be convinced that in light of the above events, a second referendum is appropriate and fair; and 3) the outcome of such a second referendum will be a "remain" majority. You will then be able to revoke Article 50."

I realise that this has more than a whiff of "conspiracy theory" about it, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that this is the long game here. Of course, I could be miles off-base. Time will tell.
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That might be sensible, but it ignores the emotional component, these people will want the UK to be visibly shown to have been wrong and merge more fully into the EU, and adopting the euro would be a very effective demonstration of that. At this point the UK has to convince them to take them back, as they will be out regardless of if they accept the deal or not. So I think there would need to be some concessions on the UK special status to get back in.
 
The Don said:
Stupidity from the NHS Chief:

The health service should get the cash boost it was promised during the EU referendum, the head of the NHS in England is expected to say later.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-41908302

I'm virulently anti-Leave but even I know enough to accept that any money wouldn't become available until after payments to the EU cease......
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I think he's perfectly aware of that, and is being anything other than stupid. It's a way of embarrassing the government that is restricting NHS funding by citing something that very senior members of that government were happy to stand in front of. Basically it forces their hand to either openly admit it was a lie/unachievable, or look bad for trying to dodge admitting it.
 
ponderingturtle said:
That might be sensible, but it ignores the emotional component, these people will want the UK to be visibly shown to have been wrong and merge more fully into the EU, and adopting the euro would be a very effective demonstration of that. At this point the UK has to convince them to take them back, as they will be out regardless of if they accept the deal or not. So I think there would need to be some concessions on the UK special status to get back in.
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The UK's leaving is a massive blow to the EU though (while obviously its going to have a massive negative impact on the the UK also).

The UK was/is the EU's financial hub, second largest economy, fourth largest manufacturer, fifth largest exporter, and third largest net contributor to the EU.

The UK represents one of only two nuclear powers in the EU and holds one of only two of the EU's permanent seats in the UNSC.

The UK's military was/is, by some metrics but not all, the most effective in the EU and has access to a global network of military bases including Cyprus, Gibraltar, the Falklands, Belize, Bermuda, and has the potential ability to utilise other overseas territories for these purposes if needed.

The UK has soft power and diplomatic that any other EU member (with the possible but unlikely exception of France) can only dream of.

Now of course its possible that the EU might still say "nerr nerrny nerr nerr can't come back in" to all that, but I doubt it :)
 
Hubert Cumberdale said:
The UK's leaving is a massive blow to the EU though (while obviously its going to have a massive negative impact on the the UK also).

The UK was/is the EU's financial hub, second largest economy, fourth largest manufacturer, fifth largest exporter, and third largest net contributor to the EU.

The UK represents one of only two nuclear powers in the EU and holds one of only two of the EU's permanent seats in the UNSC.

The UK's military was/is, by some metrics but not all, the most effective in the EU and has access to a global network of military bases including Cyprus, Gibraltar, the Falklands, Belize, Bermuda, and has the potential ability to utilise other overseas territories for these purposes if needed.

The UK has soft power and diplomatic that any other EU member (with the possible but unlikely exception of France) can only dream of.

Now of course its possible that the EU might still say "nerr nerrny nerr nerr can't come back in" to all that, but I doubt it :)
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You were permitted to be financial hub. But you are also not the only hub in EU. (One of exceptions)

What diplomatic power? Yes, were are seeing it in action all the time...

Sorry, but you are not really exceptional case nor really that important. You are way overestimating GB standing in EU.

You might be able to cancel Brexit, but you will not keep all those crappy exceptions you extracted over years. You will lose most of them.
 
Klimax said:
You were permitted to be financial hub. But you are also not the only hub in EU. (One of exceptions)

What diplomatic power? Yes, were are seeing it in action all the time...

Sorry, but you are not really exceptional case nor really that important. You are way overestimating GB standing in EU.

You might be able to cancel Brexit, but you will not keep all those crappy exceptions you extracted over years. You will lose most of them.
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No I'm not, the EU is going to lose a huge amount of power and influence when it loses the UK.

Glad that you think that's a good thing, but I don't.
 
3point14 said:
The ability to use Boris Johnson as a European envoy to foreign nations when subtle understanding and a light touch while respecting local laws and customs is required?
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Or maybe Priti Patel's influence with the Israeli's?
 
Hubert Cumberdale said:
The UK's leaving is a massive blow to the EU though (while obviously its going to have a massive negative impact on the the UK also).

The UK was/is the EU's financial hub
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It will definitely be 'was' given the number of jobs in the finance sector expected to disappear to Dublin, Frankfurt, etc. after Brexit.
 
Garrison said:
Or maybe Priti Patel's influence with the Israeli's?
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Well, you can't fault her work ethic, unlike the Brexit Secretary. Can you imagine David Davis taking histhe Foreign Secretary's work on holiday?
 
Hubert Cumberdale said:
There's also the £625million the UK pays to subsidise EU healthcare schemes
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In this case 'subsidize' apparently means 'pay for the healthcare of British citizens who fall ill in EU countries.' I think Brexiteers just can't help being misleading when it comes to money.
 
Garrison said:
In this case 'subsidize' apparently means 'pay for the healthcare of British citizens who fall ill in EU countries.' I think Brexiteers just can't help being misleading when it comes to money.
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There's roughly three times as many EU citizens living in the UK compared to the number of Brits living in other EU countries - so assuming that both groups need approximately the same amount of healthcare per head, there should be about three times as much money (£1.875 billion) paid by the EU to subsidize the British NHS.

I don't know whether or not that money does flow; maybe someone posting here will know how it works and post the figures.
 
ceptimus said:
There's roughly three times as many EU citizens living in the UK compared to the number of Brits living in other EU countries - so assuming that both groups need approximately the same amount of healthcare per head, there should be about three times as much money (£1.875 billion) paid by the EU to subsidize the British NHS.

I don't know whether or not that money does flow; maybe someone posting here will know how it works and post the figures.
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Mathematically true - taking into account the ages of said residents, algebraically, not.

ETA: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...living-in-spain-more-than-doubles-in-10-years
 
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There are around 247,000 British citizens aged 65 and over living in other EU countries (excluding Ireland), and 85,000 people aged 65 and over from other EU countries (excluding Ireland) living in the UK.

https://visual.ons.gov.uk/pensioners-in-the-eu-and-uk/

Of the EU residents in the UK - 80.8% (in bold below) are working - source ONS

Table EMP06: Employment rates by nationality: People aged 16 to 64 (not seasonally adjusted)
Date of publication: 16th August 2017 Date of next publication:
Inquiries: Email: labour.market@ons.gov.uk Telephone:
United Kingdom not seasonally adjusted
European Union (EU)
Of which:
Total1 UK Non UK Total EU (EU27)2 EU143 EUA84 Romania and Bulgaria
Dataset identifier code LF9D LFN8 LFN9 EQ54 LFO2 LFO3 EQ55

Jan-Mar 1997 70.4 70.9 58.4 64.3 64.6 63.9 100.0
Apr-Jun 1997 70.8 71.4 59.3 64.7 65.1 64.1 69.0
Jul-Sep 1997 71.4 72.0 59.8 66.5 67.4 43.7 77.0
Oct-Dec 1997 71.4 71.9 59.7 66.2 67.8 44.5 65.5
Jan-Mar 1998 70.9 71.4 60.4 66.6 67.5 55.7 56.4
Apr-Jun 1998 71.1 71.7 59.3 66.1 66.6 53.7 84.2
Jul-Sep 1998 71.9 72.5 59.4 67.3 67.5 58.0 100.0
Oct-Dec 1998 71.9 72.6 59.2 67.2 67.4 59.2 100.0
Jan-Mar 1999 71.5 72.1 59.5 66.9 67.6 51.7 59.3
Apr-Jun 1999 71.7 72.3 58.8 66.5 66.8 55.7 49.6
Jul-Sep 1999 72.5 73.0 61.4 68.7 69.9 53.2 68.2
Oct-Dec 1999 72.4 73.1 60.1 66.7 67.6 64.5 54.9
Jan-Mar 2000 71.9 72.6 59.1 65.8 66.3 66.9 47.4
Apr-Jun 2000 72.3 73.0 59.4 66.1 67.2 62.6 26.2
Jul-Sep 2000 73.0 73.6 61.0 70.0 71.5 54.4 78.1
Oct-Dec 2000 72.7 73.3 61.5 70.1 71.7 52.4 44.8
Jan-Mar 2001 72.3 73.0 60.3 69.3 70.6 56.5 68.9
Apr-Jun 2001 72.5 73.2 60.7 69.8 70.5 61.9 66.3
Jul-Sep 2001 72.9 73.5 61.9 69.2 70.1 59.2 63.0
Oct-Dec 2001 72.7 73.4 61.4 67.7 68.7 59.0 77.1
Jan-Mar 2002 72.2 72.9 59.9 66.8 68.2 58.3 71.1
Apr-Jun 2002 72.5 73.2 61.2 68.6 69.7 60.1 76.0
Jul-Sep 2002 72.9 73.5 61.9 68.8 69.2 62.1 71.3
Oct-Dec 2002 73.0 73.7 62.6 69.4 70.1 59.3 73.7
Jan-Mar 2003 72.4 73.1 61.1 69.5 70.3 57.6 78.6
Apr-Jun 2003 72.7 73.4 62.0 70.0 71.2 55.1 68.2
Jul-Sep 2003 73.1 73.7 63.7 70.2 71.5 57.1 59.8
Oct-Dec 2003 72.9 73.6 61.9 68.7 70.2 55.3 85.2
Jan-Mar 2004 72.8 73.5 62.1 66.2 67.1 60.7 72.6
Apr-Jun 2004 72.7 73.3 63.9 69.7 68.9 78.7 69.3
Jul-Sep 2004 73.2 73.7 64.4 71.3 70.7 73.4 77.0
Oct-Dec 2004 73.2 73.8 64.8 73.9 73.4 75.2 81.8
Jan-Mar 2005 72.9 73.4 64.9 72.2 71.6 75.2 72.5
Apr-Jun 2005 72.7 73.4 63.0 71.4 69.1 81.5 73.0
Jul-Sep 2005 73.3 74.0 64.4 72.6 70.0 80.5 83.0
Oct-Dec 2005 72.8 73.4 65.5 72.3 69.1 82.5 67.2
Jan-Mar 2006 72.7 73.2 66.2 73.7 70.3 82.6 77.4
Apr-Jun 2006 72.6 73.1 67.2 74.7 70.9 82.6 84.3
Jul-Sep 2006 73.1 73.5 68.5 76.6 73.3 81.6 93.5
Oct-Dec 2006 72.9 73.3 68.1 76.5 72.8 81.6 96.1
Jan-Mar 2007 72.3 72.8 66.4 76.4 73.2 80.8 91.5
Apr-Jun 2007 72.4 72.9 67.5 76.4 72.1 81.8 88.8
Jul-Sep 2007 73.0 73.4 68.3 77.7 73.5 83.4 84.1
Oct-Dec 2007 73.1 73.6 67.7 78.1 73.4 83.8 85.6
Jan-Mar 2008 72.7 73.1 68.7 78.0 73.8 82.9 81.2
Apr-Jun 2008 72.7 73.1 68.2 78.0 72.8 84.2 81.2
Jul-Sep 2008 72.7 73.1 68.7 78.3 72.6 83.9 91.1
Oct-Dec 2008 72.3 72.7 68.4 76.5 72.4 80.9 83.2
Jan-Mar 2009 71.4 71.8 68.1 77.1 72.6 82.3 81.1
Apr-Jun 2009 70.6 71.1 66.1 75.7 70.6 81.9 76.0
Jul-Sep 2009 70.9 71.2 67.6 76.3 71.2 82.9 78.1
Oct-Dec 2009 70.7 71.1 66.6 75.5 69.3 83.6 76.9
Jan-Mar 2010 70.0 70.4 65.4 74.6 69.0 81.9 72.6
Apr-Jun 2010 70.2 70.6 66.6 75.6 69.3 83.0 76.7
Jul-Sep 2010 71.0 71.3 68.1 76.3 70.0 82.4 82.6
Oct-Dec 2010 70.6 70.9 67.7 76.2 70.4 82.8 75.1
Jan-Mar 2011 70.3 70.6 67.7 76.9 71.7 82.1 79.6
Apr-Jun 2011 70.2 70.5 67.5 77.2 72.0 82.3 80.3
Jul-Sep 2011 70.4 70.6 68.1 76.7 70.6 82.8 76.1
Oct-Dec 2011 70.4 70.7 67.2 75.5 69.4 81.8 70.5
Jan-Mar 2012 70.2 70.7 66.2 75.0 70.1 80.8 72.4
Apr-Jun 2012 70.7 71.1 67.1 75.7 72.5 79.4 74.2
Jul-Sep 2012 71.4 71.7 68.4 77.1 73.8 80.1 79.4
Oct-Dec 2012 71.6 72.0 68.0 77.2 74.9 79.7 75.7
Jan-Mar 2013 71.0 71.3 67.4 76.7 75.4 79.3 69.9
Apr-Jun 2013 71.1 71.5 67.8 77.3 76.0 79.4 74.1
Jul-Sep 2013 71.9 72.2 68.9 77.5 76.4 79.1 76.3
Oct-Dec 2013 72.2 72.5 69.2 77.7 77.5 79.4 71.5
Jan-Mar 2014 72.2 72.6 69.3 77.8 75.0 81.4 75.0
Apr-Jun 2014 72.6 72.9 70.5 79.0 76.5 81.8 77.0
Jul-Sep 2014 73.2 73.6 70.5 78.2 75.0 81.2 78.9
Oct-Dec 2014 73.4 73.8 69.9 79.0 75.2 83.1 77.8
Jan-Mar 2015 73.2 73.6 70.5 79.2 75.0 84.0 76.7
Apr-Jun 2015 73.2 73.4 71.8 79.4 75.2 84.6 75.2
Jul-Sep 2015 74.0 74.2 72.8 79.7 74.9 84.5 80.0
Oct-Dec 2015 74.3 74.6 72.1 79.1 74.7 83.3 78.6
Jan-Mar 2016 74.0 74.4 71.3 78.0 75.9 80.8 75.2
Apr-Jun 2016 74.3 74.6 72.3 78.4 75.0 81.5 79.3
Jul-Sep 2016 74.6 74.9 72.7 80.3 77.3 83.0 80.9
Oct-Dec 2016 74.7 75.0 73.0 80.6 76.6 83.8 84.0
Jan-Mar 2017 74.6 75.1 71.6 79.7 77.3 82.4 79.9
Apr-Jun 2017 75.0 75.3 72.8 80.8 78.0 83.1 84.3

More than two-fifths of national health spending in the UK is devoted to people over 65 (40%)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/01/ageing-britain-two-fifths-nhs-budget-spent-over-65s

So "... assuming that both groups need approximately the same amount of healthcare per head, there should be about three times as much money (£1.875 billion) paid by the EU to subsidize the British NHS" - is a very wrong assumption.
 
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