You know, someone linked to the El Pais piece on "myths of Catelan independence" above. I'd already read it, and it was so blatantly partisan that I had to laugh that anyone could really accept it without question. If the mainstream Spanish press take a similar view then it's hardly surprising that so many people elsewhere in that country seem incredulous at events in the region.
Spain suppressing Catalan Indyref
- Thread starter Craig B
- Start date
I'm fairly sure Nazis weren't so considererate as to use rubber bullets when a part of their empire wanted to secede.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising
I invoke Godwin law.
McHrozni
Well:
http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-support-for-drops-poll/
The Centre for Opinion Studies, the polling organization of the regional government, released new figures showing the percentage of people supporting a Catalan independent state dropped to 41.1 percent in June from 44.3 percent in March.
The best information we have shows the support for independence is and always was well shy of 50%. A majority of 50% plus one vote is decidedly not enough to pull what the Catalan authorities are trying to pull. You need support in excess of 80% to go ahead with such actions and have a reasonable hope of success and anything under 60% is doomed to fail.
Who has the warped view of reality, then? France24 or you?
McHrozni
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dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
Get with the program; The opinions of evil reactionaries and counter revolunaries don't count!
Getting serioius, this is another case of people adapting a viewpoint that fits their ideology without waiting for the facts. That most of the big time supporters of Catalan Independence are also Scottish Nationlaist Party members is not a coincidence.
(and they have been pretty quiet about the drubbing that the SNP took at the polls in the last election).
With respect, I'm not quite sure what you hope to bring to the table with that post beyond an attempt to goad Craig and myself into derailing the current discussion in response to your somewhat incorrect rendering of the most recent General Election Results.
Back on topic, however, McHronzi posted an old article which refers to early summer polling results. Unfortunately the Centre for Opinion Studies does not carry an English language translation of their most recent (late September) results and my command of the Iberian languages is somewhat poor, but it might be helpf if someone with greater language ability and time were to confirm where the polls were going.
As for whether an independence vote requires 50%, 60%, or 80% one has to consider whether the selection of that threshold has been selected to suit one side or the other (and if so, then why). For those who say 50% is too low, that is what the French Constitution requires. The US Constitution, as far as I can see, only requires an amendment to be ratified by three quarters of the States before it is adopted. And other countries have other benchmarks.
My view is that those who seek an unrealistically high figure, such as 80%, are seekign to impose a constitutional block that is not reflected in other political processes. On the other hand I can see the case that a simple majority of 50%+1 runs the risk of disenfranchising a substantial part of the population.
Back on topic, however, McHronzi posted an old article which refers to early summer polling results. Unfortunately the Centre for Opinion Studies does not carry an English language translation of their most recent (late September) results and my command of the Iberian languages is somewhat poor, but it might be helpf if someone with greater language ability and time were to confirm where the polls were going.
As for whether an independence vote requires 50%, 60%, or 80% one has to consider whether the selection of that threshold has been selected to suit one side or the other (and if so, then why). For those who say 50% is too low, that is what the French Constitution requires. The US Constitution, as far as I can see, only requires an amendment to be ratified by three quarters of the States before it is adopted. And other countries have other benchmarks.
My view is that those who seek an unrealistically high figure, such as 80%, are seekign to impose a constitutional block that is not reflected in other political processes. On the other hand I can see the case that a simple majority of 50%+1 runs the risk of disenfranchising a substantial part of the population.
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The opinions of evil reactionaries were expressed in a referendum, and because a majority voted No, there was no Declaration of Independence in Scotland. That is a democratic procedure.
Let me return to the puzzlement expressed in the opening post. If indeed there is a majority for unionism in Catalonia, and there may well be: why is Madrid behaving so unpleasantly in that region? If the referendum is going to produce results agreeable to Madrid, why send in the cops to confiscate ballot boxes and abuse voters? The example of Ireland in 1916 has been raised, where a population, in all probability generally opposed to the insurgency, became disaffected because of British foolishness and misbehaviour. Secession was the result.
Since I started this thread the conduct of Madrid has become even more provocative and extreme. If you know the vote is going your way, why in God's name confiscate the ballot boxes? This gives the separatists an excuse to challenge the result of the vote.
Previously, political movements were condemned if they resorted to violent extremism. These are being condemned for holding referendums or participating in parliamentary elections, and abiding by the results. Violence has been introduced into the process by the unionists of Madrid. God forbid that their counterparts in Scotland should decide to follow this bad example. (The only violence in the Scottish Indyref campaign was a triumphalist riot perpetrated by Orange adherents in Glasgow after the announcement of the result) or - Heaven help us - in Northern Ireland, where May formed an alliance with unionist extremists following the drubbing the Tories took at the polls in the last election.
Rolfe
Adult human female
Yes, it would probably be a derail to explain yet again that the SNP won the 2015 general election handsomely in Scotland, so we shouldn't go there.
I don't think it's by any means a given that there is a unionist majority in Catalonia. It has been pointed out that about 25% of Catalans simply don't vote at all, in any election, have never voted in their lives, and are unlikely to start any time soon. The trick the unionists are playing is to announce a boycott of any referendum and then co-opt the all non-voters on to their side.
I don't have the figures to hand here but if I'm wrong I'm sure someone will point it out.
Take the total number of eligible voters in Catalonia. Subtract 20% (on the assumption that maybe some of the habitual non-voters would stir themselves for a level-playing-field independence referendum). Your target for a 50% vote in a level playing field referendum is 50% of that figure.
Take the number of actual Yes votes cast last week
Take the 700,000 ballot papers confiscated by the Spanish police while still in their ballot boxes and allocate to Yes the same proportion of these as was cast for Yes in the ballots that were actually counted. Add that to the total number of Yes votes.
Now, consider the difference between the actual turnout (counted ballots plus confiscated ballots) and the notional 80% turnout in a level playing field referendum. Being really, really kind to the No camp, allocate only 10% for Yes. (There is no doubt that a significant number of potential Yes voters were intimidated away from the polling stations last week.) Add that 10% to the total.
At this point you are over 50% for Yes. Whether you're over 55% I don't know, but Madrid is right to keep trying to prevent a fair vote. They'd probably lose.
I don't think it's by any means a given that there is a unionist majority in Catalonia. It has been pointed out that about 25% of Catalans simply don't vote at all, in any election, have never voted in their lives, and are unlikely to start any time soon. The trick the unionists are playing is to announce a boycott of any referendum and then co-opt the all non-voters on to their side.
I don't have the figures to hand here but if I'm wrong I'm sure someone will point it out.
Take the total number of eligible voters in Catalonia. Subtract 20% (on the assumption that maybe some of the habitual non-voters would stir themselves for a level-playing-field independence referendum). Your target for a 50% vote in a level playing field referendum is 50% of that figure.
Take the number of actual Yes votes cast last week
Take the 700,000 ballot papers confiscated by the Spanish police while still in their ballot boxes and allocate to Yes the same proportion of these as was cast for Yes in the ballots that were actually counted. Add that to the total number of Yes votes.
Now, consider the difference between the actual turnout (counted ballots plus confiscated ballots) and the notional 80% turnout in a level playing field referendum. Being really, really kind to the No camp, allocate only 10% for Yes. (There is no doubt that a significant number of potential Yes voters were intimidated away from the polling stations last week.) Add that 10% to the total.
At this point you are over 50% for Yes. Whether you're over 55% I don't know, but Madrid is right to keep trying to prevent a fair vote. They'd probably lose.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
We keep hearing about the silent majority. Funny how the silent majority seems to turn out to be a bunch of right-wing fascists.
quadraginta
Becoming Beth
That's pretty much who Tricky Dick and Spiro were referring to back when they co-opted the expression.
Nothing much has changed.
Since the death of Franco we have had reason to expect better from democratic Spain. Are we to be disappointed in our hopes?
Rubber bullets are not a joke, by the way. As a state response to a democratic referendum they are a cause for grave concern.
Democracy. You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.
An elected authority announcing an unconstitutional change they justifiy with a referendum they held, despite the Constitutional court ruling it to run contrary to the constitution, is not democratic, even if their supporters are a plurality - which they may or may not be, but that's the most they can reach.
McHrozni
I'm not sure using such a broad brush to smear anyone who disagres with you among them helps the Catalan cause any.
McHrozni
If you're running a fair referendum both sides will have to present their cases to the public. It's trivially easy to show the overwhelming majority of claims presented by Yes side are outright lies. Take 1 out of 4 Yes votes and make it a No, because they were swayed by false promises (like with Brexit) and 1 out of 4 Yes votes and make it a null vote, because they want to see Catalonia independent, but not under these conditions.
Does Yes still win?
McHrozni
Yes it is. I simply disagree with you. In 1918 there was a huge majority for separatists in the General Election in Ireland. The nationalist majority of Irish MPs refused to take seats in Westminster, and instead they assembled in Dublin as Dáil Éireann. That was a democratic procedure.
The British authorities declared this an illegal assembly and arrested its members, thereby provoking a bloody conflict. That was not a democratic procedure.
No doubt the U.K. was constitutionally upholding the Union of 1801 and the Sinn Fein MPs were violating it. But these MPs were behaving democratically, and the UK was not.
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Sure.
Sure.
In 1918 in Ireland, the pro-independence party won about half the vote and another party which also favored greater self-rule at least won about half the remainder. Save for Northern Ireland, the pro-indepednence parties won large majorities in all electoral districts.
By comparison in 2017 Catalonia, the pro-independence parties barely manage to get half the parliament and according to our best information, manage to get 40-45% of the electorate on their side.
Why should 40-45% of the voters decide on what happens with their constituents and how is that democracy?
McHrozni
Abooga
Graduate Poster
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I did, aware that it´s partisan (show me a neutral media outlet, I´ve never found such a mythical beast), but as a good summary of the position of the EU towards the issue. If you can prove the claims wrong, or find a better source, by all means go ahead.
By the way, just yesterday the French "secretary of European issues" warned that an independent Catalonia would be out ot the EU automatically.
Here, from the most "official" pro-Catalan paper:
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171009/431920160467/francia-catalunya-reconocida-union-europea-dui.html
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Abooga
Graduate Poster
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You have bigots and ignorant racists in both camps. But specially in groups with nationalist ideologies, whether Catalan, Spanish of Basque (or any other, really), you´ll find idiots who are attracted to that ideology because it makes them feel superior to the others, the "enemy". Using victimism, tribal feelings, symbols, simplified manipulated history, bullying etc. So it would be fair to compare them to fascists or even nazis without godwinning the thread.
Having said this, Spanish nationalists strike me as more primitive and authoritarian, more fascist, and Catalanists in general more civilised, but nationalism itself is a messed up ideology so I distrust them too.
That's probably a fair assesment, however you can't decide a bunch of people don't count because the other side is "superior and more civilized".
After all isn't that precisely why Nazis were bad?
McHrozni
This was always a given. The Catalan independence leadership chose to lie to the public about it, claiming Catalonia would be a member of the EU automatically. Some people here think this didn't impact the choices of the electorate at all, which doesn't strike me as a very strong position to take.
McHrozni
JJM 777
Illuminator
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40-45% of _those who bother to vote_ don't decide anything, usually. Or do you suggest that Catalonia has some unusual election system which gives more seats with less votes?