Ed The Hurricane [or Tropical Storm] Harvey Thread

[Giordano]

People definitely die as a result of being evacuated (stress, accidents, etc), and the relative risk has to be considered in decision making by public authorities.

 

[Myriad]

In the end I won't be surprised if the various official responses to the disaster end up being pretty close to the optimum possible response, given the accuracy and lead times of the available forecasts. "Evacuate everyone!!!" was probably never a feasible option. If you try, you can end up with a high death toll from the evacuation itself. Instead, who you need to evacuate in advance are:

- People in danger of being killed or injured by the acute phase of the storm, such as swept away by storm surges or hit by wind-blown debris. Rescue of those people is not possible during the storm itself, so their lives can only be saved by evacuation before the fact. Since you don't know in advance exactly where the danger will be greatest, that means moving a lot of people. But not the entire regional population. Early on when forecasts are uncertain you prioritize evaluation of the inherently most hazardous locations (e.g. near coastlines and rivers); as the situation clarifies but the available time tightens, you prioritize the remaining areas of lesser inherent hazard but closest to the expected target.

- People with acute or ongoing medical needs.

- People in remote locations making later rescue or communication of the need for rescue extra difficult.

For everyone else, rescue or evacuation after the fact is a viable option. For each individual so rescued, the cost and danger is relatively high, but unlike for advance evacuations, you have information about where those rescues are and are not needed.

The fact that lots of people have been and are being rescued therefore doesn't mean the emergency planning was botched. (That could still turn out to be the case depending on what information comes to light in the future, but the evidence so far doesn't show it.) It might very well turn out to be part of a reasonably balanced overall response.

The most unusual part of this scenario is the official request for private boaters to carry out rescues. That's an extraordinary measure necessitated by the extraordinary nature and scope of the event. A large part of the reason it's extraordinary is liability issues. Under normal conditions, depending on the applicable laws of the area (Good Samaritan laws and similar), a would-be private rescuer might be vulnerable to lawsuits if a rescue goes wrong and beloved Uncle Charlie slips and breaks his neck over a gunwale or something. (Imagine the scene a year later in a courtroom, as the lawyer working on contingency of 1/3 of the damage award asks the rescuer in a sneering voice, "Now, tell us, what are your qualifications for rescuing people by boat? What training have you had?") By making the request public, the local officials are basically taking on that liability, and I applaud them for taking that step, however obviously necessary it was.

 

[rwguinn]

The modeling and forecasting being completely wrong until the last day or two is certainly a big part of the evacuation dilemma.

Excuse me?
Well before it hit, forecasters here were prediction up to 40 inches of rain through this Wednesday. That it would degrade, back up, and nail Houston, raining the entire time.
Seems to me the forecast has been dead-nuts on all the way

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[Dr. Keith]

Excuse me?
Well before it hit, forecasters here were prediction up to 40 inches of rain through this Wednesday. That it would degrade, back up, and nail Houston, raining the entire time.
Seems to me the forecast has been dead-nuts on all the way

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

I really think they thought it would hit closer to Corpus and hang out down there a bit to weaken. The forecasted rain totals a few days before the storm hit had San Antonio and Houston both getting about the same amount of rain. Clearly it tracked a bit further east and Houston got hit far harder than Corpus or San Antonio on the rain scale. The King Ranch is probably already bitching about missing a good soaking rain.

Corpus did provide free transportation for residents. Go to any bus stop and catch a bus out of town. I don't know how they pulled that off, but I don't think Houston's Metro has anywhere near that capacity.

 

[Giordano]

Every Sunday two major interstate highways that pass near to my town become traffic nightmares for most of the late afternoon and evening by people returning from visiting the nearby mountains for a recreational weekend. I would guess it represents some ten's of thousands of people- all on holiday, none panicked, none desperately trying to take as many of their personal possessions with them as possible, virtually all in excellent heath, all with specific places to stay that evening (typically their own homes), and with no worries about finding food, water, medication, and gasoline along the way. And at least in the summer, all in excellent weather.

I cannot even imagine what the result would be with 6 million people, many of whom are old and/or informed, trying to do this under in chaotic conditions with a hurricane looming over them. One might argue that the evacuation can be performed over several days, but just think abut how difficult it would be to enforce who leaves when, etc. Plus just imagine the number of accidents, stalled cars, etc. that would bring even an initially orderly evacuation to a halt!

 

[LTC8K6]

Every Sunday two major interstate highways that pass near to my town become traffic nightmares for most of the late afternoon and evening by people returning from visiting the nearby mountains for a recreational weekend. I would guess it represents some ten's of thousands of people- all on holiday, none panicked, none desperately trying to take as many of their personal possessions with them as possible, virtually all in excellent heath, all with specific places to stay that evening (typically their own homes), and with no worries about finding food, water, medication, and gasoline along the way. And at least in the summer, all in excellent weather.

I cannot even imagine what the result would be with 6 million people, many of whom are old and/or informed, trying to do this under in chaotic conditions with a hurricane looming over them. One might argue that the evacuation can be performed over several days, but just think abut how difficult it would be to enforce who leaves when, etc. Plus just imagine the number of accidents, stalled cars, etc. that would bring even an initially orderly evacuation to a halt!

Well, you can't evac all those people in one go, obviously. It's really not realistic.

I think you would have to go for the people who will need assistance, and for the most likely areas to flood. Try to get those folks out, or moved early, or prepared, regardless of the predicted storm intensity.

Don't think that because it's a Cat1, you don't need to take any action regarding evacuations.

 

[LTC8K6]

Excuse me?
Well before it hit, forecasters here were prediction up to 40 inches of rain through this Wednesday. That it would degrade, back up, and nail Houston, raining the entire time.
Seems to me the forecast has been dead-nuts on all the way

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Advisory #10 on the 19th has Harvey staying weak and well away from the USA.

Advisory #12 on the 23rd has Harvey staying weak and headed for Texas.

I believe advisory #14A on the 24th is the first one that has Harvey becoming a Hurricane. And a later advisory the same day had it changed to a major hurricane.

 

[Vixen]

No one was ordered to stay in place. They all still had the choice of leaving.

What the Mayor didn't do was order a mandatory evacuation.




All the residents of Houston knew exactly what the Governor had said. You act like the information was withheld from them somehow.

It wasn't.

The Mayor of Houston simply disagreed on the wisdom of attempting an evacuation from Houston. Houston had some experience with such efforts. They hadn't gone well.

Plenty of Houston residents still had clear memories of this. It had only been twelve years before.




That's utter hogwash.




Anyone with any experience with or knowledge of hurricanes is already well aware of this.

The residents of Houston more than most.




What are you thinking if you think he seemed to give that message? How could he even do that? Everyone there is watching the same weather forecasts and hurricane track predictions.




Do you think that makes you special? How many hurricanes have you personally been in? How many have you even been close enough to to be threatened by? How many have you had to clean up after?


You "still remember Ike". Good grief.

Do you remember Matthew? That was less than a year ago. Here in NC alone it killed twenty six people and did close to $2 billion in damages. A week after it passed there were still rivers that hadn't peaked flooding. Rebuilding is going on to this day.

Do you remember Fran? $2.5 billion in damage here in NC

Do you remember Floyd? It hit NC less than a month after Dennis. (Remember Dennis? It cut Hatteras Island in half.) Out of the 57 deaths Floyd caused in the U.S., 51 were here.

I do. I remember them all, and more besides. Can you guess why?

*********************

Catching a few news reports does not make you some sort of authority.

Live in a hurricane prone area for a few decades. Live through a few. Help clean up and rebuild after a few. Heave a few sighs of relief after the ones that miss you or fizzle out. Have some friends who lost lives or homes.

Then get back to us. You might have enough knowledge to deserve to criticize.

It's a rubbish argument to say that only people who have lived through a hurricane are qualified to comment on it. Reminds me of the Grenfell Tower thread where people claimed only architects were allowed an opinion.

As I have said before I have followed hurricanes, so it is not your place to say I can't comment.

Nobody is saying six million people should all be evacuated. We are talking about choice. When the Mayor instructs a populace to 'stay put' many will assume he knows what he is talking about. Governor Abbott of Texas was not shy at all in urging people to evacuate. So much for the 'it can't be done' argument.

As for the argument, 'last time Houston evacuated, a hundred people died'. Shocking logic.

Presumably, if there was a trident missile strongly suspected of heading the way of Houston and, say for argument's sake, there is a week to get the heck out. Seriously are people really going to shrug and say, 'Der, it can't be done'.

 

[Dr. Keith]

When the Mayor instructs a populace to 'stay put' many will assume he knows what he is talking about.

Now, when I lived in Houston Sylvester Turner was a joke candidate for Mayor, so obviously something has changed down there, but still, very few people think Turner knows what he is talking about. It was simply the best advice at the time.

Four days out it didn't look like Houston was going to be hit hard. By the time it was clearly going to be hit very hard there wasn't much time to execute a safe evacuation.

Governor Abbott of Texas was not shy at all in urging people to evacuate. So much for the 'it can't be done' argument.

He was talking about the areas that were predicting major loss, like Corpus Christi, Rockport, and similar areas.

As for the argument, 'last time Houston evacuated, a hundred people died'. Shocking logic.

If more than 100 Houstonians* die in this event you may have a slight point there. But four days out it didn't look like it would be this bad, so there was no reason to risk 100 lives on an unneeded evacuation.


*Anyone who came into town for the Coldplay concert deserves what they get. Sorry, not sorry.

 

[quadraginta]

I am still amazed someone is equating evacuasting a town in the Sierras with maybe 100 people to evacuating a metro area of Six Million.
You also have the issue of different jurisdiction. The much publicized Nursing Home was NOT located in Houston proper. Mayor had no jurisdiction.

Twenty three of the deaths resulting from the evacuation of Houston during Rita (nearly a quarter of the total) were because of a fire on a bus full of nursing home residents being evacuated to Dallas.

 

[quadraginta]

You have to have a managed evacuation in stages according to the flood maps.

<snip>

Houston had an evacuation plan in place for Rita, it included all that and more.

It wasn't enough.

 

[LTC8K6]

Houston had an evacuation plan in place for Rita, it included all that and more.

It wasn't enough.

Then they should just be prepared to deal with the flooding and the refugees locally. If they can't evacuate, then they should build a lot of shelters designed to withstand the flooding, at least. Perhaps just a little farther inland so they can be reached by a fleet of buses in a timely fashion, and so that hurricane force winds are unlikely to reach them.

Turn the evacuation into more like a 20 mile move to inland shelters.

Otherwise, I guess you just tell the public they are on their own to deal with a Cat 4 hurricane.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Then they should just be prepared to deal with the flooding and the refugees locally. If they can't evacuate, then they should build a lot of shelters designed to withstand the flooding, at least. Perhaps just a little farther inland so they can be reached by a fleet of buses in a timely fashion, and so that hurricane force winds are unlikely to reach them.

Turn the evacuation into more like a 20 mile move to inland shelters.

Otherwise, I guess you just tell the public they are on their own to deal with a Cat 4 hurricane.

Most major buildings, like the convention center, are built with that in mind.

The "20 miles inland" comment was unintentionally funny. Houston is about 40 miles inland. The entirety of that stretch of highway from Texas City on the coast to downtown is developed. The city itself is about 40 miles in diameter, so the southern edge may be more like 25 miles form the coast. On a normal day it will take you over an hour to drive across it if there is no traffic and you stick to the highways.

Twenty more miles north form downtown gets you to Spring, which is currently a lake. Another 20 miles gets you to Conroe, which I think is also currently more lake than usual. It is just a really large flat area for quite some ways. And the impact of this storm is just massive. There are road closures 150 miles away in College Station.

 

[quadraginta]

It's a rubbish argument to say that only people who have lived through a hurricane are qualified to comment on it. Reminds me of the Grenfell Tower thread where people claimed only architects were allowed an opinion.

As I have said before I have followed hurricanes, so it is not your place to say I can't comment.

I didn't say you can't comment. I said that you didn't have enough understanding of the nature of the events to offer meaningful criticism. I said that when offering as your basis for authority the fact that you 'still remember Ike from 7,000 km away' you are not lending any weight to your argument.

You seem inclined to disregard the statements of people with direct experience but tout your nine year old recollections of some news reports as some sort of credential.

Nobody is saying six million people should all be evacuated. We are talking about choice. When the Mayor instructs a populace to 'stay put' many will assume he knows what he is talking about. Governor Abbott of Texas was not shy at all in urging people to evacuate.

And everyone in Houston had heard both, and had the discretion to make their own choices. There was no order to stay put. Only a recommendation.

Unlike, for example, Rita, when the evacuation order was mandatory.

You keep going on about choice while you blithely ignore that.

So much for the 'it can't be done' argument.

Good thing no one made that argument. Whether or not it should have been done is the question.

As for the argument, 'last time Houston evacuated, a hundred people died'. Shocking logic.

The vast majority of the fatalities in all of Texas (not just Houston) during Rita were a direct result of the evacuation of Houston.

That isn't "shocking logic". That's costly experience.

Presumably, if there was a trident missile strongly suspected of heading the way of Houston and, say for argument's sake, there is a week to get the heck out. Seriously are people really going to shrug and say, 'Der, it can't be done'.

I don't know. Your hypothetical isn't relevant. Houston didn't have a week's warning. Predicitions of unprecedented rainfall totals weren't made for the Houston area until the day before Harvey hit. They knew there was going to be flooding, yes, but Houston gets flooded yearly. They had their experience to go by, and their experience had been that trying to evacuate in that amount of time was a very bad idea.

We still have no idea if an evacuation, even one with more than a day or two's warning, would have been the best alternative in terms of protecting human lives.

One of the thorniest problems emergency planners have to grapple with results from the problem of issuing evacuation warnings, mandatory or voluntary, which turn out to be unnecessary.

It is already hard enough to get people to comply, because there is no real way to force an entire population to leave at the drop of a hat. They can't go around jerking everyone out of their homes and loading them into paddy wagons.

Every time an evacuation warning is issued that turns out not to be needed it just makes people more inclined to ignore the next one. The one that might be needful.

And this is a problem.

The only thing that is worse is when the evacuation causes even more threat to lives than not doing it would have.

The emergency management experts in Houston have far more training, practice, and experience than either you or I do. Flooding is a constant problem and frequent threat there. The difference between you and I is that I know enough to understand that the problems involved are not simple and that there are no easy answers which can be divined from reading a few news reports, watching TV, and dimly remembering a few news reports from nine years ago. The last hurricane right here was less than a year ago.

I'm not criticizing the decisions of those professionals in Houston because I watched a little bit of TV from a continent away. You are. And expecting you to have done more (as in any) homework to support your criticisms is not unreasonable.

 

[William Parcher]

The death toll so far seems amazingly low. I'm seeing a count of only eight. Likely to rise but still seems minimal after a few days of a major hurricane.

 

[William Parcher]

Fake photos and stories are happening.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-real-a-running-list-of-harveys-viral-hoaxes

 

[sts60]

Most major buildings, like the convention center, are built with that in mind.

The "20 miles inland" comment was unintentionally funny. Houston is about 40 miles inland. The entirety of that stretch of highway from Texas City on the coast to downtown is developed. The city itself is about 40 miles in diameter, so the southern edge may be more like 25 miles form the coast. On a normal day it will take you over an hour to drive across it if there is no traffic and you stick to the highways.

Twenty more miles north form downtown gets you to Spring, which is currently a lake. Another 20 miles gets you to Conroe, which I think is also currently more lake than usual. It is just a really large flat area for quite some ways. And the impact of this storm is just massive. There are road closures 150 miles away in College Station.

A lot of people don't seem to really grasp that Houston is a seaport. One of America's largest commercial seaports.

And not one of those picturesque ones with mountains soaring dramatically up just inland. Ride up to the top of a high-rise and look out the window; most of the city disappears below the trees, spreading out flatly and apparently endlessly.

Of course, there's lots and lots of concrete and asphalt hidden under that green to conveniently help keep the water from going anywhere. But it would have been bad with this much water - trillions and trillions of gallons - no matter what.

I can see the argument for having done more targeted evacuations, and opening up more shelters ahead of time, but mandating or encouraging a general evacuation of the Houston area would not have been a good idea. As far as comparing this event to a nuclear missile strike, that's just silly.

FWIW, I lived in Houston for the better part of two decades. So I have some idea what I'm talking about.

 

[casebro]

Nuts, a thundershower just passed through, and I had left my windows rolled down. Now all of San Diego smells of hot asphalt.

Good luck, Houston.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You know how some of those fundamentalist preacher types like to blame natural disasters on God's wrath over gays or voodoo or some such? Anyone trying that with Harvey yet?

Leave it to Ann Coulter:

I don't believe Hurricane Harvey is God's punishment for Houston electing a lesbian mayor. But that is more credible than "climate change.

Link is mine.

 

[Dr. Keith]

The death toll so far seems amazingly low. I'm seeing a count of only eight. Likely to rise but still seems minimal after a few days of a major hurricane.

Agreed. And it seems most of them were in vehicles. Shelter in place, while not the apparent solution, is proving to be the better approach than a full scale evacuation.

I'm sure the death toll will rise, but it appears that it won't reach the death toll of the Rita Evacuation.