Predict the UK election result.

[MikeG]

.........I don't quite get that reasoning, so can you spell it out more for me?

In a seat in which a Tory was in a fight for victory with a Lib Dem (typically in the SW of England), a vote for Ukip would almost certainly have come from someone who previously voted Tory. This reduces the Tory vote enough to allow the Lib Dems to win a tight race.

May out-thatchers Thatcher and has swung the Tories further to the right, gobbling up the UKIP with lots of pro-Brexit rhetoric. I'd thunk that leaves a gap on the Tory left flank which the LibDems then could profit from. What am I seeing wrong?

The subject of this thread. This is a question for the other thread. Your error is in your first dozen words, which are flat out wrong.

 

[ddt]

I'd be curious to know what you thought a "hung parliament" might mean in the light of your misunderstanding of the term "majority".

That the Queen comes in with an armed guard and escorts all MPs off to Tyburn?

(well, just a very naive interpretation of "hung" I guess).

 

[ddt]

In a seat in which a Tory was in a fight for victory with a Lib Dem (typically in the SW of England), a vote for Ukip would almost certainly have come from someone who previously voted Tory. This reduces the Tory vote enough to allow the Lib Dems to win a tight race.

IOW, now that Brexit is assured, UKIP has become irrelevant to its voters and they return to voting Tory?

 

[MikeG]

.....Second, yes, I guess it depends on what you call PR. The Irish 4-5 seat per constituency STV system apparently also counts as PR and then I agree with you. I thought primarily of the Dutch or Israeli pure PR system, or the mixed German or Scottish or Welsh system. In Scotland, with 16 seats per region, or Wales with 12 seats per region, 7% would give you approximately 7% of the seats.......

Different countries have different thresholds for representation. You don't secure 0.5% of the national vote and expect 0.5% of the seats anywhere. In some countries the threshold is 5% (I believe, without checking, that this applies in Germany). So you can get 4.5% of the vote and get 0% of the seats. The point I was making was that if the Lib Dems won 7.5% of the vote tomorrow, in some PR countries (again, I haven't checked), I am pretty sure that would fall short of the threshold and they would achieve 0 seats.

 

[MikeG]

IOW, now that Brexit is assured, UKIP has become irrelevant to its voters and they return to voting Tory?

Pretty much.

 

[ddt]

Different countries have different thresholds for representation. You don't secure 0.5% of the national vote and expect 0.5% of the seats anywhere. In some countries the threshold is 5% (I believe, without checking, that this applies in Germany). So you can get 4.5% of the vote and get 0% of the seats. The point I was making was that if the Lib Dems won 7.5% of the vote tomorrow, in some PR countries (again, I haven't checked), I am pretty sure that would fall short of the threshold and they would achieve 0 seats.

I don't pretend to know the election systems in the 200-odd countries in the world either. You're right about Germany with a 5% threshold, Greece has a 3% threshold. Turkey is the only one I can think of off the top of my hat with a higher threshold, viz. 10%. But they don't belong in the column "democracy" anymore anyway, IMHO.

ETA: but that's all a bit besides the point. The LibDems could have proposed / insisted back in 2010 on a PR system that would have ensured them proportional representation with such numbers. Say adopt the Scottish/Welsh system. Then they could have broken every other election promise and still be a very relevant third party after every election in perpetuity.

 

[Seismosaurus]

Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?

All depends.

If she comes out with a large majority, this whole election will be seen as a smart move - at least amongst the tories, who are the only ones whose opinion matters to her. Then she's bought herself a more comfortable majority, and a couple of extra years in power.

If she comes out of it with a majority about the same or less, it will be seen as a pretty pointless waste of time and money. Much will be said about how she managed to throw a 20 point lead away. But whilst embarrassing for her, I doubt it will be fatal.

Of course if she loses her majority it will be seen as one of the great political mistakes of the last twenty years or so. She'd likely get the boot as party leader, and deservedly so.

 

[Antonio Coceri]

I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%
This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)

 

[MikeG]

I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)

Both these figures are wrong, by miles. You're going to have to do better than just making up numbers if you want to be taken seriously around here.

At the start of the campaign, the gap was around 17%, and now it is around 9%, as you can see from the poll tracker in my link. Here's another one.

 

[McHrozni]

I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%
This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)

You have to keep a few things in mind. First of all, polls are a lagging indicator - a poll published today gathered opinions of people during the past several days, who formed those opinions in the time before that. The polls estimate the opinions of electorate a week ago or so, but a week is a long time in politics. The result of this is that the trend of the polls is more often than not more important than the support indicated by the poll.

Another issue is identified as the shy Tory voter. In the past several decades Tories have ove-rperformed whereas Labour has under-performed the polls. However as the blog 538 shows this is only true when Labour was ahead, but not if Tories were ahead. I recommend the whole article below.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

Another wildcard are these terrorist attacks during the campaign. They could work either way. Conventional wisdom suggests that in times of threat, voters will prefer the establishment over changing the government, but that's just the most common response which may or may not be true this time around.

Overall predicting results of this election is a thankless task. If you look at the pollsters however, there are only two possible outcomes: either Yougov and their model are discredited, or Yougov becomes the new top pollster for UK.

We'll see in just over 13 hours.

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

.......If you look at the pollsters however, there are only two possible outcomes: either Yougov and their model are discredited, or Yougov becomes the new top pollster for UK........

Yougov are predicting an increased Tory majority.

 

[McHrozni]

Yougov are predicting an increased Tory majority.

Heh. They predicted both results and won't become the top UK pollster, regardless of what happens. Their controversial model could get vindicated, that's it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...neral_election,_2017#UK-wide_seat_projections

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

The bookies are offering odds-on that the Tories will win more than 370 seats in total. They are also giving odds of May winning at 1/6 on, and Corbyn at 11/1 against.

 

[McHrozni]

The bookies are offering odds-on that the Tories will win more than 370 seats in total. They are also giving odds of May winning at 1/6 on, and Corbyn at 11/1 against.

Well, I hope Corbyn Brexits them, but I'm not holding my breath on that

McHrozni

 

[Information Analyst]

No, a Conservative majority of 80 would mean they had 80 seats more than the total combined number of seats of all their opponents.

Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?

 

[MikeG]

Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?

I covered that, briefly:

......For this exercise we ignore the fact that once elected, the speaker is no longer a party member, and that Sinn Fein MPs never take their seats.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?

I think they tend to differentiate between the actual majority and the working majority. The latter tends to factor in the Ulster Unionists.

 

[Information Analyst]

I covered that, briefly:

OK. An oddity of the maths seems to be that, assuming there's still 4 x SF plus the Speaker, any majority can only be an odd number.

 

[Antonio Coceri]

Both these figures are by miles. You're going to have to do better than just making up numbers if you want to be taken seriously around here.

At the start of the campaign, the gap was around 17%, and now it is around 9%, as you can see from the poll tracker in my link. Here's ["]another one[/URL].

mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-uk-poll-tracker-2017-10266121

 

[MikeG]

mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-uk-poll-tracker-2017-10266121

Yes, and? That supports exactly what I said. I've told you before, getting your facts straight around here is considered quite important.

This, from the Mirror (there couldn't be a more Labour-supporting paper) that you linked to:

Comres: Con 44%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, Ukip 5%
Surveymonkey: Con 42%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 6%, Ukip 4%
Panelbase: Con 44%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 10%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
BMG: Con 46%, Lab 33%, Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5%

How many seats might each party win?

Here are YouGov's seat projection models for each day in the run-up to the election. Please note these are not the same as opinion polls, and use a very different method. 326 seats are needed for an overall majority.

June 7: Con 269-334, Lab 238-302

Con mid-range from the above: 301.5
Lab mid range from above: 270