Predict the UK election result.

[Darat]

I got it wrong.

The Conservatives have won only a pyrrhic victory, now reliant on the DUP to form a government with a majority slightly less than they had before when they governed alone*. Labour have done better than expected, but only achieved the sort of result that Gordon Brown achieved in 2005, and done it mainly in London and Scotland, and by bribing students. The Lib Dems confounded me, getting a reduced vote share but an increased number of seats. The thing I am most delighted to be wrong about, however, was the SNP result in Scotland. They're down by 20 odd seats, and any thoughts of a second Indyref just went out of the window (there was virtually a 2:1 vote for unionist candidates north of the border). About the only thing I got right was the demise of Ukip.

What a bloody mess.

Oh, and Darat............when I said this election would produce a 2 party result, maybe you understand now.
*The maths is easy. 7 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats, and the speaker doesn't count. Therefore the working majority number is 321, and the Conservatives are forecast to have 318, plus the DUP's 10.

Never didn't understand you but again I'd say "and when hasn't that really been the case?" Apart from two blips in recentish times it has always been the case that you have a choice of a Labour or Conservative government.

 

[psionl0]

I guess a lot of people did what Mrs Don and I did - when we were alone with our ballot paper we realised that the only way to stop the Conservatives was to vote for the party most likely to defeat them, in our case Labour.

It says a lot about how bad FPTP voting is when you have to vote strategically like this. It's great if you prefer a two party system but disenfranchising for anybody else.

Of course, the UK rejected an AV proposal not so long ago so, as always, you get the government that you deserve.

 

[Mid]

Well I voted for a small Tory majority and will stick with it for now although hoping not

Well it would appear I was a bit wrong on this prediction

 

[Ape of Good Hope]

A good result, a chance for hope, and a genuine pleasure to see the look on Queen Theresa's fizzog this morning.

Shame about the SNP's performance, but nice to see UKIP all-but-dead.

I'm glad that it wasn't a straight-up Labour win (not that I expected such a thing would come to pass). A win would have meant that Labour would be further drawn into the Brexit debacle, and for ideological reasons I want the ownership of Brexit (from inception to referendum to negotiation to its inevitable cack-handed denouement) to lie squarely with the Tories.

For now, the sun is out, the washing's on the line, the coffee's on the go, and for the first time in months I'm smiling : )

 

[The Don]

I think that it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for Labour. Their recent rebound in the polls IMO is combination of a dead cat bounce and a reaction to unpopular Conservative policies for social care payment and dropping the triple lock (both of which are, IMO, sensible policies).

IMO when the electorate are in the voting booth and they actually have to put cross to paper then in times of uncertainly they will default to voting for the party currently in power.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Conservative majority of 150+ and wouldn't be shocked by 200+. I think they will win more seats in Scotland than Labour (who I reckon may actually be wiped out there). Regarding the other parties on the mainland:

SNP - will lose a very few seats to the LibDems and Conservatives but will still have around 50 seats.
LibDem - will stage a (very) minor recovery and may get into double figures seatwise
Plaid Cymru - will maintain support but won't get any more seats
Green - will sadly lose their seat but will increase their vote nationally by a significant margin
UKIP - will happily lose their seat but may crucially gain votes from Labour in some of the Labour heartlands and allow the Conservative Party to win those seats

Turnout will be even lower than in recent and once again it will be pointed out that the under-25s were seriously under-represented.

Glad I don't have to rely on my political acumen to earn a living .

6 predictions, two correct (one of which, UKIP was inevitable), two wrong, and two completely and utterly wrong....

 

[Greebo]

I have a rather difficult decision to make on Thursday on whether I employ my tactical vote for the lib dems or not. I promised never to do so after voting for them in 2010. If I thought it would make a difference I probably would hold my nose and do it but given that our ukip candidate has been suspended for being too racist even for ukip I think the little englander and casual racist vote will see a Tory landslide

That being the case I might as well vote Green although they have as much chance of winning as I do to be honest.

Had the same dilema, your constituency sounds very much like mine, voted LibDem (strategically) and the Tory wassock was returned with a greater majority.

 

[angrysoba]

Never didn't understand you but again I'd say "and when hasn't that really been the case?" Apart from two blips in recentish times it has always been the case that you have a choice of a Labour or Conservative government.

We may indeed be having one of those blips again if the spectre of the Reverand Ian Paisley's party is going to be joining the Tories in government.

 

[Darat]

Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!

 

[MikeG]

Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!

.....and Zac Goldsmith by 45, from memory.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!

Was that the one that prompted Dimbleby to shout 'bloody hell!' down his live mic?

That's not an example of how every vote counts incidentally, it's an example of how SOME votes count.

 

[Worm]

Every vote does count. Maybe not for what you want it to count for, but they all matter. Every single one.

 

[Tolls]

Was that the one that prompted Dimbleby to shout 'bloody hell!' down his live mic?

That's not an example of how every vote counts incidentally, it's an example of how SOME votes count.

OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.

 

[angrysoba]

The head of Survation was right about this election as close as can reasonably be forecast. Here he is being ruthlessly mocked on the Daily Politics, though he turned out to be right:

https://youtu.be/9F-n3QhGZ7M?t=219

ETA: His name's Damian Lyons Lowe. I wonder if he will turn out to be the UK's Nate Silver.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Every vote does count. Maybe not for what you want it to count for, but they all matter. Every single one.

Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.

And that's why I voted Lib dem. But it made no difference. It didn't matter in the slightest. And had I not voted the outcome would have been zero different.

 

[Worm]

Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.

Honestly not trying to be pedantic, but it really does depend on what you view as 'meaningful'.

In the high level, grand scheme of things, in terms of having an elected representative, no, those small number of votes had no effect. But as part of the overall system, to the candidate that stood, to those people that voted for them, to how it feeds into the whole glorious mess of nonsense that we call a democratic system - yes, they all matter. Maybe not to you, but to someone. Even if seeing someone they know get a few votes encourages someone to think about voting next time, or maybe even stand themselves, it all matters.

 

[zooterkin]

Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!

Fife North; the Lib Dems are understandably asking for another recount, since they were shown to have won on an earlier count.

OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.

Students have made a big difference in a number of seats.

Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.

Maybe, but a surprising number of MRLP policies have ended up being adopted by other parties and enacted in law.

 

[Tolls]

And that's why I voted Lib dem. But it made no difference. It didn't matter in the slightest. And had I not voted the outcome would have been zero different.

The current outcome yes.
These things take a long time (with our current system) to produce changes.

 

[Agatha]

I was right about the hung Parliament, but I underestimated the LibDems and overestimated the SNP. My constituency went Tory, and I've already emailed and tweeted my new MP to find out whether he's happy about the proposed pact with the appalling DUP.

This whole thing must call Theresa May's future into question. The 12 Tory MPs who lost their seats (13 if Kensington & Chelsea's recount results in a Labour gain) have lost them as a direct result of May's arrogance.

 

[Darat]

This isn't the time for such matters Agatha, we need steady and stable government and need to concentrate on Brexit. Remember if it hadn't been for the perfidious Labour not keeping their promise to be wiped out we wouldn't be having this disruption!