• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Predict the UK election result.

Predict the result of UK General Election 2017

  • Conservative majority of 100+

    Votes: 7 10.9%

  • Conservative majority of 76 to 100

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • Conservative majority of 51 to 75

    Votes: 9 14.1%

  • Conservative majority of 26 to 50

    Votes: 7 10.9%

  • Conservative majority of 1 to 25

    Votes: 14 21.9%

  • Hung parliament

    Votes: 19 29.7%

  • Labour majority of 1 to 25

    Votes: 3 4.7%

  • Labour majority of 26 to 50

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 51 to 75

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 76 to 100

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 100+

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Total voters
    64
  • Poll closed .
I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.

So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
 
I think that it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for Labour. Their recent rebound in the polls IMO is combination of a dead cat bounce and a reaction to unpopular Conservative policies for social care payment and dropping the triple lock (both of which are, IMO, sensible policies).

IMO when the electorate are in the voting booth and they actually have to put cross to paper then in times of uncertainly they will default to voting for the party currently in power.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Conservative majority of 150+ and wouldn't be shocked by 200+. I think they will win more seats in Scotland than Labour (who I reckon may actually be wiped out there). Regarding the other parties on the mainland:

SNP - will lose a very few seats to the LibDems and Conservatives but will still have around 50 seats.
LibDem - will stage a (very) minor recovery and may get into double figures seatwise
Plaid Cymru - will maintain support but won't get any more seats
Green - will sadly lose their seat but will increase their vote nationally by a significant margin
UKIP - will happily lose their seat but may crucially gain votes from Labour in some of the Labour heartlands and allow the Conservative Party to win those seats

Turnout will be even lower than in recent and once again it will be pointed out that the under-25s were seriously under-represented.
 
Last edited:
MikeG said:
I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.

So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
Click to expand...

If anyone deserves to lose a seat it is that lying sack of crap Carmichael.
 
Seismosaurus said:
Well, a couple of weeks ago I'd have said 100+ majority for the Tories. But after a couple of spectacular own goals and a generally not good campaign by them, I said Tories 1-25 majority.

And I'm thinking it will be closer to 1 than 25. A lot closer.

And even at that, I'm being optimistic.

(Or pessimistic, depending on how you look at it, I guess.)
Click to expand...



Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?
 
MikeG said:
I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.
So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
Click to expand...

Have we ever not, apart from a couple of blimps over the decades the choice has only ever been for a Labour or Conservative government?
 
3point14 said:
Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?
Click to expand...

You are being rather unfair, she's not really had any time to deal with this tiresome general election as she's been busy working on Brexit and other important matters.....
 
Projections show a conservative majority of 58-80, except Yougov that shows a hung parliament, with Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority. They will either become a major force of UK polling or else take a moderate hit to their reputation.

McHrozni
 
I wonder how this election would have turned out if we had a french style runoff system
 
dudalb said:
Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
Click to expand...

The Tories are desperately trying to focus on two memes: Corbyn soft on terrorists; and magic money tree. Boris Johnson could not answer a single question this morning about his party and his parties records and policies without going back to those two memes.

I say 'going back to' but actually that was the start, middle and end of his response. he would not discuss anything else, no matter what the question. Michelle Hussein got quite shirty in the end (he kept ranting over her as well) and at one point just told him to 'Stop talking'.
 
angrysoba said:
It would be between the Tories and Labour with the Tories winning, as opposed to the world we are in which is between the Tories and Labour, with the Tories winning.
Click to expand...

In a second round system a lot of snp and liberal voters would probably back Corbyn. It would be close but I don't see Tory victory assured in that scenario.
 
Oh and my prediction is a small Tory majority (I really hope lower than currently just to teach them a lesson for being so opportunistic) but I'd rather a hung parliament as none of them deserve to win.

Bemusing to me how many, 'life-long' labour voters are voting Tory - the polar opposite in political terms. I can understand them not rating Corbyn, so not voting labour but normally they'd protest vote to Green or Liberal but they actively seem to want a Tory Government. The only reason I've seen given is that 'She'll sort the immigrants out' which is a sad indictment of racism levels in Britain. Very revealing interview with one supporter:

"I've voted Labour all my life, as my parents and grandparents did but we need to sort these foreigners out and stop them taking our jobs".

'Are you looking for work at the moment?'

"Oh no, I've got a tidy job - been in it all my working life'.

"So immigrants haven't taken your job then?'

"Oh no, but there's too many of them and they're putting a strain on the health service! It takes ages to get a Doctor's appointment now!"

Only other reason I've heard for switching from 'life long Labour' to Tory was an indication of the Tory memes working:

"Well I agree with what Corbyn is saying but where's he going to get the money from - he can't magic it up. That's why I'm voting Tory" blithely ignoring the fact that Labour have at least costed out their proposals and funding (however well or badly) and the Tories haven't at all.

It's bizarre - but then I lost faith in the general public after sitting on a Jury and realising what 'normal' people are really like.
 
Oh and Lib Dems* (who, according to a test I did, I'm naturally more inclined to) may well get a smaller number of seats. Amazing how a party that was on the rise and in a country that has been desperately looking for an alternative to the big two, has fallen so far due to (IMHO) one spectacularly bad decision. No, not going in to coalition or the string of being conned by the Tories to always be the ones giving bad news, whilst Tory ministers were always trotted out to give the good stuff, I think it was purely and simply Tuition Fees.

This was seen as such a massive betrayal of a really clear promise. Clegg could have got away with abstaining but would obviously have been far better voting against. It would have had no material effect on the outcome and he could even have indicated tacit understanding along the lines of 'Having seen the books, I can understand why they feel the need to do this but I gave my word and I can't in all conscience betray the people who voted for me on that understanding'. Then some better marketing on how they'd 'moderated' other Govt agendas and they could have built to the next election. As it was, they looked like lapdogs and that one clear issue proved it.

*I think Farron has performed fairly well but I can't reconcile some of his views as 'Liberal'. Seems more like a soft Tory to me...
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Oh and Lib Dems* (who, according to a test I did, I'm naturally more inclined to) may well get a smaller number of seats. Amazing how a party that was on the rise and in a country that has been desperately looking for an alternative to the big two, has fallen so far due to (IMHO) one spectacularly bad decision. No, not going in to coalition or the string of being conned by the Tories to always be the ones giving bad news, whilst Tory ministers were always trotted out to give the good stuff, I think it was purely and simply Tuition Fees.

This was seen as such a massive betrayal of a really clear promise. Clegg could have got away with abstaining but would obviously have been far better voting against. It would have had no material effect on the outcome and he could even have indicated tacit understanding along the lines of 'Having seen the books, I can understand why they feel the need to do this but I gave my word and I can't in all conscience betray the people who voted for me on that understanding'. Then some better marketing on how they'd 'moderated' other Govt agendas and they could have built to the next election. As it was, they looked like lapdogs and that one clear issue proved it.

*I think Farron has performed fairly well but I can't reconcile some of his views as 'Liberal'. Seems more like a soft Tory to me...
Click to expand...

Whilst I think that did create an overall impression of "can't be trusted" in the end it was shown that Cameron and Clegg were in fact brothers by different mothers. Cameron and Clegg were/are progressive liberals who by dint of very astute political strategy managed to "takeover" their respective parties and enact neoliberal policies.

It will take some time for the Liberals to be again seen to be different to the Tories, obviously the Tories are helping with this as they are busy throwing off the shackles of Cameron and reverting to type.
 
Darat said:
Have we ever not, apart from a couple of blimps over the decades the choice has only ever been for a Labour or Conservative government?
Click to expand...

I rather think you know what I meant. Ukip got about 13% of the national vote last time out. They'll get less than 5% this time.The Lib Dems were in the government before last, and may be down to 1 or 2 MPs this time. The second tier political forces have evaporated.
 
MikeG said:
I rather think you know what I meant. Ukip got about 13% of the national vote last time out. They'll get less than 5% this time.The Lib Dems were in the government before last, and may be down to 1 or 2 MPs this time. The second tier political forces have evaporated.
Click to expand...

Depends on what you consider the second tier and whether you restrict your analysis to England. It's certainly true in England, but there is currently another, geographically succinct, party which has a fair number of MPs ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom