Predict the UK election result.

[MikeG]

......2015 was a freak result. SNP still have a mandate in Scotland.

I'm not sure that anyone has suggested otherwise. However, as the campaign in Scotland was all about Indyref 2, the big drop in vote and seats, in contrast to the performance of the unionist parties (who got a higher number of votes) mean that even Sturgeon is struggling to spin the result as a ringing endorsement of her call for another referendum.

 

[Craig B]

I'm not sure that anyone has suggested otherwise. However, as the campaign in Scotland was all about Indyref 2, the big drop in vote and seats, in contrast to the performance of the unionist parties (who got a higher number of votes) mean that even Sturgeon is struggling to spin the result as a ringing endorsement of her call for another referendum.

I don't think Sturgeon is trying to spin that line. She is "reflecting" on the result, as well she may.

Recall that the areas that voted yes in indyref1 weren't SNP heartlands. They were Labour heartlands. A vote for Labour is not necessarily a unionist vote, even though Labour is a unionist party. This is particularly so when Labour is standing on a Left wing manifesto.

But it is true to say that there is no clear majority for Indy at the present time.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't think Sturgeon is trying to spin that line. She is "reflecting" on the result, as well she may.

Recall that the areas that voted yes in indyref1 weren't SNP heartlands. They were Labour heartlands. A vote for Labour is not necessarily a unionist vote, even though Labour is a unionist party. This is particularly so when Labour is standing on a Left wing manifesto.

But it is true to say that there is no clear majority for Indy at the present time.

And nor has there ever been as far as I can tell. The SNP perhaps overestimated the extent to which Brexit would be a factor for voters. It seems the initial outrage cooled somewhat but the suggestion that this election tells us something new about support for either Indy or indyref (which strangely seem to be more or less the same thing now) is stretching.

In UK elections the natural home for a lot of votes is Labour and not SNP. Uk elections should be something of an irrelevance for the snp in some ways. The next holyrood vote is far more important as an indicator.

 

[Darat]

And nor has there ever been as far as I can tell. The SNP perhaps overestimated the extent to which Brexit would be a factor for voters. It seems the initial outrage cooled somewhat but the suggestion that this election tells us something new about support for either Indy or indyref (which strangely seem to be more or less the same thing now) is stretching.

In UK elections the natural home for a lot of votes is Labour and not SNP. Uk elections should be something of an irrelevance for the snp in some ways. The next holyrood vote is far more important as an indicator.

The SNP had started walking back their let's have another referendum this generation as they realised it wasn't going to fly with the voters, then May made her decision and the SNP didn't have time to make up their loss. I think we can assume that SNP calls for another referendum will not happen again in the near future.

Perhaps they actually will wait a generation as they told everyone at the independence referendum.

 

[Craig B]

The SNP had started walking back their let's have another referendum this generation as they realised it wasn't going to fly with the voters, then May made her decision and the SNP didn't have time to make up their loss. I think we can assume that SNP calls for another referendum will not happen again in the near future.

Perhaps they actually will wait a generation as they told everyone at the independence referendum.

If Brexit turns out a disaster and voters therefore become more sympathetic to independence, a referendum will be held, and rightly so. At the last one we were told that to stay in the EU we had to vote No to independence. But that was a falsehood, so Sturgeon will go ahead whenever she thinks it can be won. That may of course be some time away, or it may be sooner, if prospects for the U.K. outside the eu start to look unappealing.

 

[dudalb]

I'm not sure that anyone has suggested otherwise. However, as the campaign in Scotland was all about Indyref 2, the big drop in vote and seats, in contrast to the performance of the unionist parties (who got a higher number of votes) mean that even Sturgeon is struggling to spin the result as a ringing endorsement of her call for another referendum.

Question is if the SNP Might evolve into a Scottish version the Quebecois party in Canada:using the threat of sucession to gain concessions..and pork ...for Scotland, but never really pushing it to the limit. Sort of "Give un Indepdence, Lord...But Not RIght Now!".

 

[dudalb]

The SNP had started walking back their let's have another referendum this generation as they realised it wasn't going to fly with the voters, then May made her decision and the SNP didn't have time to make up their loss. I think we can assume that SNP calls for another referendum will not happen again in the near future.

Perhaps they actually will wait a generation as they told everyone at the independence referendum.

That fits in with my theory of the SNP becoming like the Qubecois party in Canada;use sucession as a scarecrow to get goodies for Scotland.

 

[Craig B]

That fits in with my theory of the SNP becoming like the Qubecois party in Canada;use sucession as a scarecrow to get goodies for Scotland.

I'm not sure that would work for very long. Sooner or later the SNP would have to demonstrate both their own commitment and the support they say independence has among the voters. Otherwise a threat of a referendum would be empty.

I still adhere to my theory that it will be advanced if and when things go badly wrong as regards Brexit or one of the other problems confronting Westminster. But it will be kept quietly in reserve until an opportunity to deploy it is clearly seen to have arisen. Meanwhile Westminster will try to taunt Sturgeon into setting off her Doomsday Device prematurely.

Ignite blue touch paper and secede to a safe distance immediately.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The SNP had started walking back their let's have another referendum this generation as they realised it wasn't going to fly with the voters, then May made her decision and the SNP didn't have time to make up their loss. I think we can assume that SNP calls for another referendum will not happen again in the near future.

Perhaps they actually will wait a generation as they told everyone at the independence referendum.

Deary me. You are better than parroting this tired old Unionist canard. They never told anyone anything of the sort.

Nor have they walked anything back on indyref which was voted upon by the Scottish government and remains policy to date. When and if that changes we can say they have walked something back.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I'm not sure that would work for very long. Sooner or later the SNP would have to demonstrate both their own commitment and the support they say independence has among the voters. Otherwise a threat of a referendum would be empty.

I still adhere to my theory that it will be advanced if and when things go badly wrong as regards Brexit or one of the other problems confronting Westminster. But it will be kept quietly in reserve until an opportunity to deploy it is clearly seen to have arisen. Meanwhile Westminster will try to taunt Sturgeon into setting off her Doomsday Device prematurely.

Ignite blue touch paper and secede to a safe distance immediately.

My main disagreement with this approach is that I don't think pushing for a risky change from a position of weakness will ever work. If things get bad post Brexit it will be used as to scare people that can't afford to gamble on independence. A yes vote can only ever happen when people are confident to make the change not because the status quo is so bad.

The moment the UK leaves the EU then independence becomes less rather than more likely. In my opinion anyway.

 

[funk de fino]

I'm not sure that anyone has suggested otherwise. However, as the campaign in Scotland was all about Indyref 2, the big drop in vote and seats, in contrast to the performance of the unionist parties (who got a higher number of votes) mean that even Sturgeon is struggling to spin the result as a ringing endorsement of her call for another referendum.

The SNP campaign was not all about Indyref 2.

The unionists campaign was. The idiotic call for an election cost both May and Sturgeon.

The SNP made it more about policies and Brexit.