Oh, I agree with you absolutely there are such cesspools of Islamic extremism. My back-of-an-envelope calculation was a bit cheap in that, obviously, the probabilities of the individual friends and family members of one wannabe-jihadist are not independent of each other. However, that also means that for those wannabes outside those cesspools, the probability that someone close reports suspicious activity or inclination approaches very near to 100%.
What we've also seen in all terrorist attacks thus far is a definite pattern on the jihadist(s) in question:
(a) they're all second generation, born and raised in the West
(b) their parents are fine, upstanding, law-abiding citizens who are abhorred once they find out what their son(s) have been up to.
One can only hope that each such terrorist attack is a wake-up call to such parents who are not quite sure what their son(s) are doing in their free time.
And daughters. Not all terrorists are men.
I disagree in the definite pattern. We don't even know who most of these people are. A total of 12 people have been detained so far in connection with the London attacks. Maybe they weren't all involved but these are not necessarily small two-man operations, even though they may appear to be.
And just because the parents seem to care and act normal during press conferences, or have money and live in nice homes, does not mean that they are good parents, or that they are not a direct part of the problem.
Again, bad parenting is often blamed for the problems with gangs, but it almost never fails that the parents will go on TV and say what a wonderful child their son was, gentle giant and all that.
San Bernardino - people who knew them looked the other way when they saw warning signs. Why? Because they were afraid of being un-PC, according to them.
a) no they are not all born and raised in the West. Maybe you are referring to the UK, but as an example the female San Bernardino shooter was from Pakistan.
I don't think we should rely on the parents getting a wakeup call. If that were likely to happen then our gang problems (US anyways) would be diminishing I would think. The cycle of bad parenting seems perpetual.
I think we need a more proactive approach. What that is I'm not sure.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2015/12/14/voices-muslim-terrorist-gray-zone/77108980/
Moderate Muslim families and communities will play an increasingly key role in preventing more Americans from carrying out attacks in the U.S. “The Muslim community is critical in that regard,” Venzke told me. “That can’t be stressed enough.”
I don't see that happening in our inner city gangs, but maybe Muslims are different. Certainly possible, they couldn't be much worse.