How long before Trump is gone?

How long before Trump is gone?

  • He won't last more than a year.

    Votes: 25 37.3%

  • He'll last 2 years.

    Votes: 9 13.4%

  • He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast.

    Votes: 16 23.9%

  • Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025

    Votes: 17 25.4%
  • Total voters
    67
I don't expect Trump to be impeached, not by a Republican Congress anyway. After 2018, if the Democrats take back the House and Senate? That's possible. In a way I hope Trump doesn't get impeached unless he does something so outrageous that impeachment is widely supported by the public including Republicans. I'm afraid removing Donnie by impeachment will create so much division it will poison the democratic process for years to come. That the Republicans will embark on a political vendetta against Democrats that will last for years.

If you look at photos of presidents, the stress of the office begins to take a physical toll even after just a few years. I think it's more likely Trump might resign or suffer some kind of medical event that forces him from office. I think the latter possibility might be the most likely. Trump has never been under the kind of pressure, scrutiny and stress he's under now. Might catch up to him in a hurry.
 
Trying to enumerate the possibilities, plus my felt probabilities (those probably won't add up to exactly 100%):

1. Trump resigns - 0%. That is simply not a thing within his personality. He will always fight fight fight and of course misperceive and miscontrue reality. Blame all the world, he will blame his wife and kids and dead grand-parents in due course, but never himself.

2. Impeachment - <2%. Even if the Republicans grew some balls, this would take way too long. More likely that the process starts when Dems win one or two houses back in the midterms, but then it's too late, too.

3. Becomes incapacitated or dead due to medical trouble - certainly a possibility, perhaps in the range 5%-30% within the next 3.5 years, and considerably more likely if he makes it to a second term.

4. Loses Republican primary in 2020 - 5%-10%. This would be unprecedented, I'd guess, but lots in Trump's presidency will have been unprecedented by then. It'd be much safer for the Republican party to oust Trump in a democratic election than through impeachment. The party will be greatly interested in fielding another candidate, because otherwise...

5. Trump loses election in 2020 to Democrat opponent - 50%. Of course much higher than that if he gets there in the first place. As has been pointed out, he may maintain his deluded, stupid core voter base, but not win substantially in addition to those, while the opposition will be be much stronger.

6. Assassination - no percentage given for the sake of decency. I think this is not an insignificant possibilty. Too many enemies everywhere, and he will amass many many more before he's up for re-election.

7. Will serve out 2 terms - unlikely. However, likelihood will rise under certain circumstance, such as a big, fierce war. And frankly, I am rather convinced that Trump will want to fight (and win) a war. And then another. And then a bigger one. To become the greatest field marshal and war hero EVER. Wouldn't want to leave that honor to a Frenchman (Napoleon) or Italian (Gaius Iulius *********** Caesar), would you!?


ETA: Of the poll options, "make it to 2020" is closest to my largest probabilities. So that was my vote.
 
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newyorkguy said:
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If you look at photos of presidents, the stress of the office begins to take a physical toll even after just a few years. I think it's more likely Trump might resign or suffer some kind of medical event that forces him from office. I think the latter possibility might be the most likely. Trump has never been under the kind of pressure, scrutiny and stress he's under now. Might catch up to him in a hurry.
Click to expand...

Now add that he is the oldest person to take this office...
 
thaiboxerken said:
I agree that he will, not sure how long it will take though. He wants to be praised by all, and the fact that he isn't is eating him up. His unpopularity is eating at him and will, eventually, cause a meltdown.
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He will reach a tipping point when the crowds stop coming to his rallies. That will happen when the rust belt figures out that coal and manufacturing jobs aren't coming back.
 
I believe more evidence will come out, his poll numbers will drop further, it will become more clear that his agenda is toast, and he will simply resign.

Within 1 to 2 years.
 
Craig4 said:
He will reach a tipping point when the crowds stop coming to his rallies. That will happen when the rust belt figures out that coal and manufacturing jobs aren't coming back.
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Maybe. But they also have to be willing to blame Trump for that failure and not Deep State, RINOs, "liberal" judges, the portion of the media they consider mainstream or any of the other usual suspects. I have no idea if that will actually happen.
 
Civet said:
Maybe. But they also have to be willing to blame Trump for that failure and not Deep State, RINOs, "liberal" judges, the portion of the media they consider mainstream or any of the other usual suspects. I have no idea if that will actually happen.
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They don't need to blame him, just lose enthusiasm. He generated a lot of enthusiasm by saying he was going to drain the swamp and shack things up. When his supporters realize he can't or won't they will just stop showing up.
 
Seeing as how the White House is considering barring Mueller from investigating anyone his former law firm had represented. That would be: Kushner & Manafort, the investigation will go nowhere.
Trumps fans see the media reporting news as attacks on the orange one, because he says so.
The wall not being built, Islam still being a religion and having to share buses with blacks will be blamed on the swamp which he will claim to drain, again, in 2020.
His opponent will have sent an email, lock them up.

So I voted that your stuck with him till 2025, he may declare himself supreme dictator for life but, the option wasn't there.
 
I doubt the hardcore Trumpanzees will blame Donnie for anything. In fact, having heard some of them interviewed last Fall before the election, most of them seemed to imply that. They were asked, "Do you really think he can reopen the area factories, bring all those jobs back?" Many said, maybe not, "But at least we'll know he tried." The desire to believe something can be very powerful, especially among people who don't look very deeply at why they want to believe it. And Trump knows that. He knows what to say and how to say it.

Some Trump voters said that voting for Trump was a way to "give the finger," to the whole Washington/media/liberal elite establishment. So many of them used those words, "Give the finger." In that sense, with those voters, it probably doesn't even matter what he does. Just the fact he was elected is enough.
 
Aepervius said:
I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.
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You've read my mind perfectly. Plus it'll make me feel better if I'm proved wrong.
 
Ausmerican said:
The guy is in his 70's, in terrible shape, doesn't believe in exercise and eats junk food like a teenager, I wouldn't be surprised if a stroke or a MCI result from his frequent tantrums.
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Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
 
Eddie Dane said:
Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
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It's certainly possible. But remember again that those guys both lived the stress of politics and war their whole lives. Whatever resilience they had wasn't just newly acquired or proven in old age.

Trump on the other hand is moving into a whole new world of stress and responsibility and every indication is that he's not prepared for it. He's taking on a very new stress at 70 after a long career that despite his supporters beliefs was far less taxing.

Trump isn't a tough old bastard like those two. And given that the office just aged Obama about 25 years in only two terms, I'm not saying Trump will necessarily have a health failure, but it isn't particularly unlikely.
 
I picked that he will last til 2020.

He will decide in late 2018 to decline running to pursue something he has convinced himself even more bigly imortant (and then promptly get back to the TRUMP business) saying he achieved what he set out to do.

He will say many impulsive things that hurt the Republican nomination process. He will act as if he would win 100%, for sure, let me tell you, a tremendous landslide, had he decided to run.

Perhaps he will even start another party (or threaten to) and defect if midterms do not go well. Create the BEST party America has ever known. Handpick his 'successor' candidate. Platform details to be revealed at some future date.
Has that ever happened that a sitting president changes parties when they cannot operate within their own?
 
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Eddie Dane said:
Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
Click to expand...

In Trump's case he's long-lived because nobody in the afterlife wants him to arrive there.
 
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