How long before Trump is gone?

[Hercules56]

Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?

 

[Regnad Kcin]

A case could be made for several scenarios. Trouble is, the unknown variables that could yet come into play and affect the outcome (and as someone somewhere recently pointed out: he survived boasting about sexual assault, so bet against the guy at your peril).

For instance, enough momentum, and actual work could be building towards impeachment and removal from office. But say the all-too-easily imagined possibility of a sudden catastrophic event of some kind takes place. Like it or not, the citizenry tends to rally 'round the flag during perilous times. Were Mr. Trump to intentionally or accidentally manage things with some reasonable degree of competence (I know, I know), I could see congress becoming forgiving of past out-of-sight, out-of-mind transgressions. And with that, items of impeachment are shelved.

Or a shoe could drop soon WRT Flynn/Comey/thatdachshundhe'sbeenhumpingwhatyouhaven'theard. Time will tell.

 

[John Jones]

He'll make it until the next election, during which time Hilary Clinton will have learned nothing and will run against him and lose again.

 

[Cain]

According to the following prediction market, you can buy shares for Trump not being president by the end of 2017 at 26 pennies a pop:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5140/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2017#data

Trump being impeached in 2017 sells for 20 cents:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5470/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-in-2017

This strikes me as weird. What these buyers seem to be saying is that Trump is more likely to resign. Or they think impeachment means removal from office.

I would guess that he serves out the term. I certainly do not expect movement with Congress held by Republicans, so after the mid-terms it might be another story. I do not expect him to win re-election (but then again, I didn't expect him to make it to Iowa).

 

[King of the Americas]

After his first un-constitutional executive order, I said he wouldn't last another 9 months.

I like my odds, currently.

 

[The Don]

2 full terms if he chooses to run for a second.

 

[Aepervius]

I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

There have been a dozen times when Trump would have been a goner if the normal rules for politicians applied to him.
But if the investigation leave room for doubt, that would be enough for the Republicans to stick to their untrained orange monkey as long as he keeps signing their bills.

 

[portlandatheist]

I voted 2 years. Trump has more fatal flaws than a Shakespearean character. I read that there are at least a dozen individual leakers. The FBI and the intelligence community are now his enemies. The media is his enemy. He can't help but cultivate more and more enemies and he can't fire himself out the situation. He'll either get impeached or quit or die from the stress of it all.

 

[Civet]

There have been a dozen times when Trump would have been a goner if the normal rules for politicians applied to him.

Agreed. If someone had described Trump's political career to me five years ago as a prediction, I would thought it was the far-fetched plot for some lousy potboiler novel. Real life is absurdly unrealistic and poorly written.

 

[Craig4]

I think he's going to resign. The American people and Congress are going to make him not want to be president anymore.

 

[thaiboxerken]

I think he's going to resign. The American people and Congress are going to make him not want to be president anymore.

I agree that he will, not sure how long it will take though. He wants to be praised by all, and the fact that he isn't is eating him up. His unpopularity is eating at him and will, eventually, cause a meltdown.

 

[Ausmerican]

The guy is in his 70's, in terrible shape, doesn't believe in exercise and eats junk food like a teenager, I wouldn't be surprised if a stroke or a MCI result from his frequent tantrums.

 

[fishbob]

How long before Trump is gone?

He left yesterday.


What??

 

[King of the Americas]

2 full terms if he chooses to run for a second.

Based on WHAT analysis?

 

[King of the Americas]

I voted 2 years. Trump has more fatal flaws than a Shakespearean character. I read that there are at least a dozen individual leakers. The FBI and the intelligence community are now his enemies. The media is his enemy. He can't help but cultivate more and more enemies and he can't fire himself out the situation. He'll either get impeached or quit or die from the stress of it all.

Yup.

 

[Upchurch]

Based on WHAT analysis?

Arguably, this one:

I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.

I don't know the percentage of Trump voters who fall into this category, but that they exist and Trump won at all suggests that it is possible. Rationality is under represented in the American electorate.

 

[King of the Americas]

Arguably, this one:

​

I don't know the percentage of Trump voters who fall into this category, but that they exist and Trump won at all suggests that it is possible. Rationality is under represented in the American electorate.

Agreed, Unchurch.

And as Trump has noted he could shoot someone in the street and not lose a vote...but he didn't 'win' by a landslide. Hillary got more votes than Obama, 3 million more than Trump, and lost.

Had the Democrats nominated Bernie or Joe...it would not have been a race.

Trump isn't gaining support. His actions are driving his opposition into the streets, and we'll see in two years, to the polls.

While not perfect, I believe our system fully capable of dealing with inept corruption.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I voted something I don't wish nor I'm extremely afraid of. How did you vote? (What...? is meaningless).

 

[JPK]

Good morning. I chose that he will make it to 2020. There is a very slight chance that he might get impeached by the house but I can't see him being removed from office. There is no backbone in the Republican members to make that move. Even the few that have made comments of concern, walk them back and get right back in line within a few days, usually returning to the talking points of "I've seen no evidence of collusion with Russia or So and so said they have no evidence of collusion, as if those people are drawing conclusions at to the ongoing investigation. I really like the fact that these guys who have been saying this investigation has gone on too long already are now upset that the special counsel has come in and now it make them look like their investigations are not as important. The main reason the special counsel was brought in is because their investigations appeared to be spinning their wheels. On top of that, several Trump voters that I know, who get their news from certain places, have a very different view of reality. Many think "The Wall" is under construction, that 10's of thousands of jobs have come back to the USA because of Trump. The "illegals " are being tossed out at record levels and no Muslims are coming in. Wall Street is booming and that will make them wealthy. That he has repealed Obamacare. He stands up to the establishment and is shaking up the government. Draining the swamp. Improved relations with Russia, China, and has put North Korea and Iran in their place.
They don't care one bit about collusion or business deals that might have been considered inappropriate under another president. I suspect that no matter what he Trump does, 30% of the population will continue to view his actions favorably. I'm not so sure he will get re-elected however there will probably be a wider range of candidates this time around. I suspect that the "established government" will stick so much more than it did before the last election that there may be more than even three parties that might have a serious chance at the presidency.