How long before Trump is gone?

How long before Trump is gone?

  • He won't last more than a year.

    Votes: 25 37.3%

  • He'll last 2 years.

    Votes: 9 13.4%

  • He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast.

    Votes: 16 23.9%

  • Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025

    Votes: 17 25.4%
  • Total voters
    67
If he continues the way he has, he will not make it until 2020.
He is losing the uncommitted or independent voters, who gave him the victory in 2016. And I suspect a number of the "Hold your nose and vote" Republcians who voted for him are totally disillusioned with him.
The mistake people are making is thinking that everybody who voted for Trump is one of the hardcore supporters. I would say the percentatage of Trump voters who are of the "I could kill somebody in Times square and they would still support me" is a lot smaller then anybody thinks.And I am not sure starting a major war is a guarantee of relection. I give you LBJ as an example'Vietnam was so unpopular that he decided not to run because he knew he would lose.
 
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He won't get forced out mid-term, for two reasons. First, Democrats, the only party anybody seriously suggests might do it, don't really want him gone because the dysfunction he introduces among republicans is the main thing holding Republicans back right now; under President Pence they'd be more unified and have more of a chance of being productive. (Logically, the way it should work is that if a President gets kicked out then the VP goes too, but that's not how it works, and in this case it would still yield another President Pence anyway.) And second, if it starts to look like there's any chance of it happening, he'll quit so he can try to spin it as his own choice for his own reasons.
 
Delvo said:
Democrats... don't really want him gone because the dysfunction he introduces among republicans is the main thing holding Republicans back right now
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Exactly. The last thing we want is for Trump to suddenly start getting a clue or be replaced by someone more competent. The more turmoil he creates the harder it is for Republicans to govern effectively (not that they are much good at it even in the best of times) and the stronger the next Democrat victory will be.

So far he hasn't disappointed, but I do fear the day he finally gets something right (hopefully by then it will be too little, too late).
 
I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
 
acbytesla said:
But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
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Not entirely. Think of the wisest course of action. Then rule that out, they'd never do that one, not in a million years. Then think up a sensible action, a reasonable action, and a thoughtful action. Rule those out as well. Then think of two stupid actions, and imagine them being attempted simultaneously. Now think of one redeeming feature of the stupid actions and remove it. Now make it as ineffectual as it is stupid, tack on a tax cut for billionaires, and you have a pretty good idea of what Congress will do next.
 
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
 
Brainster said:
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
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Why not 2026, 2027, and on?l It's not as if he and his party give a rat's ass about that pesky constitution anyhow. Other than just one amendment.
 
Brainster said:
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
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No its not. There are such things as diminishing returns. The biggest problem economically is the distribution of income and wealth. The argument made by the Arthur Laffers and Supply Siders of the world is a dishonest argument because there are more variables than just taxation. Tax cuts for the wealthy have a marginal and often a negative effect on the economy. Want to boost the economy, boost demand. We need to get more money in the hands of the masses not the few.
 
Trump or his surrogates are the only candidates the GOP will be fielding in the foreseeable future; makes no difference which feudal lord they choose as candidate for kingship. It's the bowing in awe and the chance to kiss blesséd coattails that count, so one can turn from the altar steps and razz the unwashed. Hubris, bright and shiny things, bullying as main modus operandi; this is the GOP and these are its voters. Gimme. Now. Move over. Cash! Oh precious cash!

An exaggeration? Hardly. Sixteen years is all it took to worship at the altar of Wahhabi Islam in exchange for green backs. That there is a yellow-back move. Typical. Delivered with all the non-analytical crap and weak sloganeering that works back home, before a sniggering crowd of financiers of terror that could only rejoice at the abject capitulation.
 
In 2006, Democrats won the House and the Senate, and they didn't impeach Bush (still the worst president of my lifetime).
 
dudalb said:
If he continues the way he has, he will not make it until 2020.
He is losing the uncommitted or independent voters, who gave him the victory in 2016. And I suspect a number of the "Hold your nose and vote" Republcians who voted for him are totally disillusioned with him.
The mistake people are making is thinking that everybody who voted for Trump is one of the hardcore supporters. I would say the percentatage of Trump voters who are of the "I could kill somebody in Times square and they would still support me" is a lot smaller then anybody thinks.And I am not sure starting a major war is a guarantee of relection. I give you LBJ as an example'Vietnam was so unpopular that he decided not to run because he knew he would lose.
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I remembered the massive demonstrations in the streets and anti-war songs back home when I was in Vietnam and I was stationed with Johnson's son-in-law, Patrick Nugent, at Phan Rang airbase. In addition, the US military was very angry with Johnson's "rules-of-engagement" policy.

Now, I see Trump all wrapped up in the an unpopular blanket that covered Johnson and Nixon.
 
Hercules56 said:
Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?
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Even if Trump is impeached next week, it would not be soon enough. However, we are not there yet, but I won't be surprised that as investigations continue, there will be even more negative information revealed that we are unaware of today.
 
Hercules56 said:
Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?
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The Democratic party is in shambles, Republicans control most state legislatures and governors plus have a majority in both houses of the Congress. The Democrats would have to be stupid to kill the golden goose now. They'll rattle the cage until election and hope they begin to regain their strength. Then they'll rattle it some more until the presidential election and present an electable candidate that will most likely both defeat Trump and win many other seats over for the Democrats.

Short of a Republican-sponsored impeachment or else truly gross serious crimes and misdemeanors, Trump will remain until the election.

It's a bit early to judge his chances in a reelection, but his popularity is degrading:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

If he doesn't stage an impressive turnaround, his only hope is that the electorate gets used of his antics and tired of incessant criticism and begins to ignore both as a result. It is a depressing but real scenario.

McHrozni
 
It's not the Democrat's job to impeach Trump - that's up to the majority party.
It's entirely up to the Republicans if they want to go down with Trump or not.
 
Cain said:
In 2006, Democrats won the House and the Senate, and they didn't impeach Bush (still the worst president of my lifetime).
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It's only been 130 days. All we are saying, is give Trump a chance.

Not that they could have. Well, that's not true. They could have impeached Bush with all the Democrats voting for Impeachment. Meaning like a grand jury the house could issue charges for a trial. But thats as far as it goes. Like Bill Clinton, the trial phase would be a dead end since it requires a 2/3rds majority to convict and remove the President. They never had 67 votes in the Senate.
 
Cain said:
According to the following prediction market, you can buy shares for Trump not being president by the end of 2017 at 26 pennies a pop:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5140/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2017#data

Trump being impeached in 2017 sells for 20 cents:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5470/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-in-2017

This strikes me as weird. What these buyers seem to be saying is that Trump is more likely to resign. Or they think impeachment means removal from office.

I would guess that he serves out the term. I certainly do not expect movement with Congress held by Republicans, so after the mid-terms it might be another story. I do not expect him to win re-election (but then again, I didn't expect him to make it to Iowa).
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If you can take the other side of those bets, I would say that is pretty safe money. At least he will still be the president on Jan. 1st, 2018. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I have learned to be skeptical of claims that Trump is finished "any day now".
 
Trump has demonstrated a great ability to weather all sorts of storms, even those that at first appear critical. I have no confidence that he will disappear from office before he decides to.
 
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