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Trump's Taiwan Call

Noztradamus said:
No they haven't. It is however DPP policy, but they can't do it while the US has a President bowing to the One China. Maybe they are betting there's a chance they can do it with Trump, if they speak nicely to him.
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The DPP nationalism policy is considerably more nuanced than simply "Independence! We're a country!" They lose plurality when they go too strongly on that and a lot of their supporters are really posturing for a sort of "SAR-Plus" status. Their majority in the last couple of elections are because the KMT was wracked with scandals. An Anti-KMT and Anti-Ma vote is not to be confused with a full-tilt separatist sentiment. Just ask anyone in Quebec how that works out when push comes to shove.

There is a core truly nationalistic cadre in the party; they are not the majority. Considering that the previous DPP government was run out of town on a rail because of Chen's family scandals, and considering that it's Taiwan politics (think: GOP Primaries without all the kindness and civility), she's not dealing from a power base sufficient to take on China without US support and while Flynn and the Mad Dog might relish it (add Bolton to that), there's a whole lot more involved than "Hey, they love freedom. We love freedom."
 
The Chinese government has the problem that it is holding a tiger by the tail. Subordinate as it may appear, the Chinese population has a long tradition of rebellious uprisings. The population is docile now because a row of administrations since Deng Xiao Peng have delivered what the population needed: Security, increased wealth, improved healthcare, infrastructure, industrialization, .. etc..

However, the Chinese economy is built on a couple of decades of double digit growth rates and is not very well consolidated. It relies heavily on trade relations with the outside world, and on non-sustainable resources. They have severe pollution problems, and all their newly built infrastructure is of dubious quality.

The last thing they need is a serious break-up in foreign trade relations. A trade war with the US would hurt the West badly, but it would create havoc in China. Half a billion unemployed Chinese on the march is no joking matter.

What we must remember is that in China, rhetorics are traditionally quite detached from real life. Much like with Trump, really. You simply cannot gather much about what China will do from what China says. For example, during earlier diplomatic deep-freezes with Taiwan, Taiwan's business with mainland China went on mostly as usual. As a Taiwanese business contact once told me: "Politics is politics, business is business."

All that said, Trump is a clown. A dangerous clown.

Hans
 
TubbaBlubba said:
It's basically true though. Under the Westphalian system they are a sovereign state with the right to self-determination.
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I'll go one better -- China, as a dictatorship, has zero legitimacy as a government, and absolutely has no claim over people not under their thumb.

These are, and always have been, practical matters (such as Hong Kong) and these unfortunately must be dealt with accordingly. However, there is no such thing as the right to become someone else's dictator.
 
Beerina said:
I'll go one better -- China, as a dictatorship, has zero legitimacy as a government, and absolutely has no claim over people not under their thumb.
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Are you saying that no undemocratic government in history was legitimate? Is democracy the only "true" source of state power? I ask because the overwhelming majority of states in history were, according to that logic, illegitimate.
 
Seems like Trump is getting his foreign policy training from reading Tom Clancy novels. Scary.
 
Ziggurat said:
You're likely right that it's not part of a thought-out plan. But I don't think I really care. Direct talks between us and Taiwan are something we should be able to do. It's something we should do. We shouldn't have to think 10 moves ahead in order to do something we're so manifestly within our rights to do. Maybe a little bit of unpredictability from our side will actually be helpful. Keep China from trying to maneuver us out of what we are entitle to do.
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The thing is was the call a thought through and considered change in foreign policy, or was it a rash spur of the moment thing to talk about the Trump resort being built there and gain help for his business partners?

That I have seen few things that indicate he engages in thoughtful foreign policy decisions or understands them at all is rather frightening.
 
theprestige said:
You see the man clearly, but the Taiwanese government has fallen for his tricks? That's your explanation for their call?
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It made Taiwan's status one of the biggest talking points in world politics right now? They were talking to the president elect, and they had ways of greasing the wheels to make things better for his business plans. That is some great leverage to have on the most powerful man in the world.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
"Sellout"? I never figured you'd be in agreement with the John-Bircher-Nixon-was-a-commie crowd..
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By modern standards Nixon was a huge socialist. Founding the EPA and trying to get single payer health care? How can anyone consider that a conservative?

He is a huge socialist by the modern political landscape. OF course Reagan is a RINO as well.
 
Brainster said:
No matter what the culture, you don't pick a fight with the guy who spends the most in your bar, and the USA is the biggest boozer in China's saloon.

Not to mention that for a fair amount of our hooch, we've been running a tab.
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Again, you have a couple of unsupported underlying premises. Besides your failure to take cultural differences into account (these are people in whom saving face means a lot more to them than it does to us), but perhaps your bigger mistake is in believing we hold all the cards. We don't.
 
Craig B said:
Trump's tweeting again. He is now involving himself in what appear to be more internal Chinese issues.
Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency" and "build a massive military complex?" he asked. "I don't think so!"​
Maybe they didn't ask the USA if they could do these things. How dreadful.
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Trump's ignorance about China rivals his belief in Alex Jones CTs.
 
ponderingturtle said:
By modern standards Nixon was a huge socialist. Founding the EPA and trying to get single payer health care? How can anyone consider that a conservative?

He is a huge socialist by the modern political landscape. OF course Reagan is a RINO as well.
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You do know the difference between lots of social services programs and communism, right? :rolleyes:

Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the John Birch Society. You might want a review.
 
Fudbucker said:
Good for Trump. As a liberal, I have no problem making it clear that we value Taiwan, which has a female president, over a brutal and repressive country like China.
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Sometimes caution is required.

Remember as a kid, how your parents told you not to stick paperclips into the electrical outlets? Noticing that you are here posting on the intertubes, it seems that you listened. You think maybe Trump's stubby little fingers are the result of him not paying appropriate attention to such warnings when he was a child?
 
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