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Trump's Taiwan Call

Nonpareil said:
The point is that Trump has no idea whether it is or it isn't.
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This.

Maybe he'll stumble into something that results in a better diplomatic policy than what we have now. Could happen. By the same token, perhaps the next time he'd stumble us into something far worse.

In this case, what could China do to express its displeasure? If we're just talking about retaliation toward the US, my money is on some kind of cyberattack.
 
The Shrike said:
In this case, what could China do to express its displeasure? If we're just talking about retaliation toward the US, my money is on some kind of cyberattack.
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Look at how China has already reacted. They're downplaying it. They aren't going to launch some kind of cyberattack over this.

They will keep attempting to hack into anything valuable, government or private, to steal whatever information they can, but that was going to be true regardless.
 
theprestige said:
China has tons of options. At this time, none of those options are "amphibious invasion of Taiwan". It's not a question of smarts. It's a question of sealift and air superiority, among other practical challenges.
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I would like to know what China's options are. Others have already pointed out an invasion is not an option. They could ignore the issue. This would give a small win to the USA. So what are the other options?

There are two scenarios.
1. Trump does not do anything to upset China.
2. Trump does upset China some more.

About the only option I can see is for China to try to get friends on its side. This can involve making Trump look like the bad guy.
 
China's response, if it decides to take one, will be to undermine the US economy in some way to its advantage. Perhaps not dramatically but more like a long-term and gradual pulling in of many strings, until Trump's America has descended into SlumTown USA.
 
rjh01 said:
I would like to know what China's options are. Others have already pointed out an invasion is not an option. They could ignore the issue. This would give a small win to the USA. So what are the other options?

There are two scenarios.
1. Trump does not do anything to upset China.
2. Trump does upset China some more.

About the only option I can see is for China to try to get friends on its side. This can involve making Trump look like the bad guy.
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As I see it, there are three basic types of action China could possibly take:

  • Military - as has been pointed out an invasion of Taiwan isn't realistic but China coupld attempt to up the tension in the area by continuing their airfield bulding in the South China sea, "accidentally on purpose" impinge on Taiwan's airspace and territorial waters or even by starting to interfere in Latin America or by giving North Korea a bit of a prod
  • Economically - China could try to put the squeeze on the US and US allies
  • Diplomatic - Chinese investment in Africa means that they already wield considerable influence there. There are a lot of other regimes who may be prepared to take an anti-US stance. Then again if the US enters an era of "not bothering with diplomacy" under Trump then this won't matter

Whether they choose to take action will be telling.
 
logger said:
Trump is going to continue to make the left look foolish as he takes these issues apart with professional people behind him. The reason it looks so scary to the left is eight years of an absolute wimp who had donors and children masquerading as adults behind him.
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Good to see that arch liberal and known leftist Reagan policies are being overturned!
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Were it a sign of astuteness, I'd agree. China is a bad-faith player whose moves are too slow/minimalist to counter, but which amount over time to territorial and other aggression. The response to something similar I posted elsewhere, on a normally Westerner-only site, got me a surprise tirade from a new sign-in from the East to the effect "China gave up huge swathes of its Tibetan lands to India...." China is bad news long term.

But it was not astute. It was spun as such. Loose cannon.
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Sounds like a Clinton supporter.
 
The Don said:
As I see it, there are three basic types of action China could possibly take:

  • Military - as has been pointed out an invasion of Taiwan isn't realistic but China coupld attempt to up the tension in the area by continuing their airfield bulding in the South China sea, "accidentally on purpose" impinge on Taiwan's airspace and territorial waters or even by starting to interfere in Latin America or by giving North Korea a bit of a prod
  • Economically - China could try to put the squeeze on the US and US allies
  • Diplomatic - Chinese investment in Africa means that they already wield considerable influence there. There are a lot of other regimes who may be prepared to take an anti-US stance. Then again if the US enters an era of "not bothering with diplomacy" under Trump then this won't matter

Whether they choose to take action will be telling.
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Good answer. Though they could do all of that without that phone call and other actions by Trump.
 
At some point, you have to accept that the KMT went from being a party in the power struggle in China and became the independent government of a nation-state in their own right, as a matter of fact in international law.

Whatever the precise point, we've been past it a long time now.
 
Used to sit around in the American Club in Taipei with the missile heads talking about how China was gonna get their comeuppance if they ever tried to attack. The saner voices in the room would generally point out that picking a gunfight with an enemy who can simply get their soldiers to link arms and walk across the strait probably wasn't a great idea.

Taiwan has been posturing with the armed forces upgrades. The latest round of approved purchases included materiel much suited for Stalingrad in WWII... for house-to-house urban fighting. Slick move on the part of the planners (from Taiwan and USA). Neither public - China nor Taiwan - is going to stomach Chinese killing Chinese again.

China's not making any military moves on Taiwan. They have a much larger cudgel to wield - they can shut down one or more prime Taiwanese producers on the mainland. There are more than 50,000 Taiwanese owned factories in China proper. Taiwan can't afford to compete with their own labor, their ventures in Malaysia and the Philippines were total failures, so they're left with producing in China. They need China more than China needs their production.

It's also incorrect to assume that the Greens have the total support of the country. They do not. They won landslide wins in the wake of KMT scandals. This has happened previously and the KMT bounced back with a super-popular and populist candidate. The sentiment for an independent Taiwan is probably about 45/45 with 10% undecided. The devil is in the detail, though. Taiwanese who want independence want it with all their current favored statuses in China staying in place. If they're going to lose money, they'll think twice before voting for independence.
 
Giz said:
What severe consequences? What could they do that would hurt the USA more than China?
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Victor Gao, a former diplomat and Chinese government advisor, said the phone call could cause diplomatic damage:

"The One China policy needs to be enforced and defended at the cost of anything else, and even military actions can be considered."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04k0ymv
 
The Big Dog said:
By the way, we sell billions of dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan every single year.

Maybe this will cause the dirt bags in China to rethink their ******* antics in the South China Sea and get their rabid dog pals in North Korea in line.
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And it also produces substantial returns. I doubt if it either will or is intended to overawe the Beijing administration. If they wasn't to strike back at the US they can ignore the weapons on Taiwan and sell off a few hundred billions of the US treasury bonds they currently hold.
 
logger said:
Trump is going to continue to make the left look foolish as he takes these issues apart with professional people behind him. The reason it looks so scary to the left is eight years of an absolute wimp who had donors and children masquerading as adults behind him.
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How does Trump make anyone but himself look foolish when he does stupid things?
 
theprestige said:
What does this have to do with your claim that Taiwan reciprocates the PRC's view that Taiwan is part of the PRC and that the PRC has the right to control their communication with foreign leaders?
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Has such a claim been made? Taiwan has never claimed to be part of the PRC. It has claimed
- that Taiwan is a province of China
- that its administration, the Republic of China, NOT the People's Republic, is the legitimate government of all China, and that the Communist PRC is a usurper.

The USA now recognises the PRC, and it de jure recognises Taiwan as a province of China (as do both Taiwan and Beijing). This entails certain diplomatic niceties, that Trump has failed to observe. Whether this is diplomatic subtlety on Trump's part, or mere oafish ignorance, is one of the questions bring discussed here.
 
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