China Flexes Military Muscle

[catsmate]

No...he did worse. He trusted a stupid Wiki Entry written by a bunch of Airpower Fanboyz. I initially gave him too much credit for good sense.

While your sources are...?

 

[Jules Galen]

That's not a new tactic. The USN was using it in the F-14 days with Phoenix.

Perhaps, I don't know. However, if you consider that the missile will be fired, go to a high altitude (probably) and cruise to target, then this pretty much negates a lot of frontal stealth shaping since the missile will be entering the kill zone from above (where it will have a big reflection from the canopy to home in on). At least this is how I've seen the S-400 SAM missiles work, and it would make since if a long-range air-to-air missile did the same.

Now...is it a sure thing? Nope...far from it. I mean the Phoenix never got a kill during the entire time the Navy used it although the Iranians claimed great success with it and even built a copy in later years. BVR sounds like a great concept, but it's a lot harder to pull off then the salesmen at Lockmart would have you believe. However, what BVR missiles cab do...at a minimum...is keep the other guy busy while you move in on him with both stealth and non-stealth aircraft and then make the fight an in-your-face slugging contest. I figure that this is what the J-20 is designed to do - to get those J-11s close to the battle.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

One can question the news, and whether or not things are as stated. However, long-term the writing is on the wall: cash flow superiority (ability to invest) and high-tech production capability have already moved to Asia, and there is no bringing them back. Now for China, it's just catch-up. "When" is anyone's guess, but within a decade or so things should be a lot dicier. The idea that tomorrow will be just like yesterday is every loser's dream. Looking at you, Republicans (and Brexiters).

This is why setting precedent when one was the dominant power was a good idea: at least the US could have retained some modicum of moral authority in future discussions in which it will be the weaker player. Raw stomping around the globe is an invitation to future payback in the same or worse terms. My guess is that the US will drop the "me greatest" and "I walk alone, pay for protection, bums" mantras and embrace close and sincere cooperation with allies just after the first shocking major butt-kick since WWII: military retreat from East and Southeast Asia and loss of that sphere of influence. By then it'll be too late, boys, shoulda paid attention to real economics, real security, and real industrial policy long ago (circa 1980, when Reagan said "get out the credit cards, from here on it's trickle down nonsense"), instead of maximizing Wall Street returns on casino junk and minimizing investments in education and infrastructure. The US may find many erstwhile friends and allies have signed up with another bigshot at that point, tired of the long decades of truculent bullying, and concerned about US 2nd class military tech, inevitable product of the cash-flow/industrial disadvantages. Taiwan will go first, showing the rest of the region the US cannot do more than bluff.

It won't be much consolation that China turns out even worse for global fair play, as by then it will be too late. Knowing, as the US already does, that the middle class of China will be larger than the entire US population should be a massive, ever-worrisome wake-up call, given that China shows no signs of transitioning from authoritarianism and extreme nationalism. However, it is the security-obsessed right wing that is actually sowing the seeds of destruction by gazing at mythical dogma while ignoring bothersome and inconvenient facts. Were they on the ball, it is the trade deficit - not the budget deficit - they'd have been watching.

 

[catsmate]

Perhaps, I don't know. However, if you consider that the missile will be fired, go to a high altitude (probably) and cruise to target, then this pretty much negates a lot of frontal stealth shaping since the missile will be entering the kill zone from above (where it will have a big reflection from the canopy to home in on). At least this is how I've seen the S-400 SAM missiles work, and it would make since if a long-range air-to-air missile did the same.

Now...is it a sure thing? Nope...far from it. I mean the Phoenix never got a kill during the entire time the Navy used it although the Iranians claimed great success with it and even built a copy in later years. BVR sounds like a great concept, but it's a lot harder to pull off then the salesmen at Lockmart would have you believe. However, what BVR missiles cab do...at a minimum...is keep the other guy busy while you move in on him with both stealth and non-stealth aircraft and then make the fight an in-your-face slugging contest. I figure that this is what the J-20 is designed to do - to get those J-11s close to the battle.

Facet based stealth already incorporates multi-directional features. The designers are fully aware, and have been for decades, that you can't rely on always being nose-on to a hostile transmitter. It's also by no means the only approach to reducing RADAR signature.

 

[Jules Galen]

....My guess is that the US will drop the "me greatest" and "I walk alone, pay for protection, bums" mantras and embrace close and sincere cooperation with allies just after the first shocking major butt-kick since WWII: military retreat from East and Southeast Asia and loss of that sphere of influence. By then it'll be too late, boys, shoulda paid attention to real economics, real security, and real industrial policy long ago (circa 1980, when Reagan said "get out the credit cards, from here on it's trickle down nonsense"), instead of maximizing Wall Street returns on casino junk and minimizing investments in education and infrastructure....

I think China is going to play it cool and avoid a direct confrontation, or anything else that is bad for business. I mean, they certainly backed down in 2014 when Vietnam challenged them on the drilling issue, and I think it was a wise decision on their part - nor is China really even afraid to admit what it did.

Now, is China going to keep building bases on islands? Hell yeah! China is going to create a defended economic-transport corridor all the way to the Straits of Malacca, and when they get their aircraft carriers, they will use them to to patrol the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. This is basically protecting the "Silk Waterway" from the Persian Gulf,the Red Sea and the African West Coast all the way through to the South China Sea and home.

You can see it happening. China has got a plan.

 

[Jules Galen]

Facet based stealth already incorporates multi-directional features. The designers are fully aware, and have been for decades, that you can't rely on always being nose-on to a hostile transmitter. It's also by no means the only approach to reducing RADAR signature.

What's this got to do with the F-22, F-35 or B-2?

 

[LSSBB]

Wait, hold on.

"China Flexes Military Muscle"?

China puts on an air show, and that's what passes for flexing military muscle? Yeah, no. Flexing military muscle would be actually projecting force into a contested region. Or rendering a region uncontested by virtue of projecting overwhelming force there.

Showing off a fancy new prototype isn't flexing military muscle. Parades are not field operations.

This.

 

[LSSBB]

I think China is going to play it cool and avoid a direct confrontation, or anything else that is bad for business. I mean, they certainly backed down in 2014 when Vietnam challenged them on the drilling issue, and I think it was a wise decision on their part - nor is China really even afraid to admit what it did.

Now, is China going to keep building bases on islands? Hell yeah! China is going to create a defended economic-transport corridor all the way to the Straits of Malacca, and when they get their aircraft carriers, they will use them to to patrol the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. This is basically protecting the "Silk Waterway" from the Persian Gulf,the Red Sea and the African West Coast all the way through to the South China Sea and home.

You can see it happening. China has got a plan.

Welll, amidst all that basking in China's glow, you got one thing right. Using their Navy for defending it's sea lines of communication would be a good long term strategy.

 

[catsmate]

What's this got to do with the F-22, F-35 or B-2?

The basic concepts of RADAR stealth would seem to be applicable to aircraft designed with minimal RADAR cross-section in mind.

 

[Mycroft]

It won't be long before we can get one of these beauties on alibaba.com.

 

[Segnosaur]

After reading this, it's mission becomes quite apparent and fits it's specs. The J-20 - I believe - will lead planes like the J-11 and J-15 (both are modernized SU-27 varients) into battle with potential stealth fighters and enable them to get close enough where stealth no longer matters and the J-11s and J-15s have the manueverability, fuel and and weapons load advantage. This could be bad.

The F-22 would stand to do well in such a fight. The F-35 would get wasted.

Before you start announcing the victory of the J-20 over any of its adversaries (like the F22 or F35), there are reasons to be skeptical of its abilities. Chief among them is the fact that China can't seem to come up with its own engines (instead they are using engines of Russian origin). It certainly makes me question how good the rest of their technology might be.

Secondly, the article you quoted mentions that features of the J20 are less suited to that of an air-to-air mission and more to an air-to-ground mission (e.g. larger weapons bays). If that's the case, it would probably be no match to the F22, and in the best case be an equivalent to the F35 (and that's assuming they manage to develop decent avionics.)

 

[dudalb]

It won't be long before we can get one of these beauties on alibaba.com.

For along time, China has been a CINO country...Communist In Name Only.

 

[Jules Galen]

Before you start announcing the victory of the J-20 over any of its adversaries (like the F22 or F35), there are reasons to be skeptical of its abilities. Chief among them is the fact that China can't seem to come up with its own engines (instead they are using engines of Russian origin). It certainly makes me question how good the rest of their technology might be.

Well, considering China is a country that made mass transit work via high-speed trains, has its own satellite navigation system, has an impressive space program and build radar and missile technology that is second to none, I'd say they are perfectly capable of resolving any problems they have with their engines. They are the most populous country with the largest economy on earth....so I am not so quick to dismiss their efforts.

Secondly, the article you quoted mentions that features of the J20 are less suited to that of an air-to-air mission and more to an air-to-ground mission (e.g. larger weapons bays). If that's the case, it would probably be no match to the F22, and in the best case be an equivalent to the F35 (and that's assuming they manage to develop decent avionics.)

I don't think the J-20 needs to match the F-22 one-on-one. It needs to keep the F-22 busy enough so that the J-11s can move in for the close-in fight where stealth will not matter - and I think it can do this with a bay full of long-range BVR missiles (and china makes really good missiles). I see no reason why it can't do this.

 

[cullennz]

For along time, China has been a CINO country...Communist In Name Only.

Umm

That is a very very very big stretch

 

[Jules Galen]

Welll, amidst all that basking in China's glow, you got one thing right. Using their Navy for defending it's sea lines of communication would be a good long term strategy.

This is why I fear America is destined to be eclipsed by China - it's this attitude. it's the attitude that the rivsl (i.e., China) can nothing right and any recognition of a Chinese strength is somehow equivalent to intellectual teason. I see the attitude running rampant in the USofA, and I think its an insidious poison. This is the attitude that prevents this the US from recognizing its own shortcomings and correcting them in order to maintain a lead.

Every year China grows stronger and stronger, but Americans dismiss every gain as meaningless and continue drinking their own bathwater like it were a rare champagne. And long before it become apparant to Americans that China no longer feels militarily awed by the US, the US economy will be vastly inferior to the Chinese economy. It's happening.

Don't kid yourself. America's great War Machine of which it is so proud was built on relative economic might - an edge no one else in the world had....until now. And now that China has also got a great economy, you're going to find out just how quickly they can also develop a great War Machine. And by the time Americans fully appreciate what has happened, it will be too late....or so I believe.

I believe - and fear - that Chinese Hegomony is the future - America has not the capability to meaningfully reflect and take a different course that would change the outcome. Let us hope the Chinese are not arrogant and cruel hegemon.

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

Before you start announcing the victory of the J-20 over any of its adversaries (like the F22 or F35), there are reasons to be skeptical of its abilities. Chief among them is the fact that China can't seem to come up with its own engines (instead they are using engines of Russian origin). It certainly makes me question how good the rest of their technology might be.

Secondly, the article you quoted mentions that features of the J20 are less suited to that of an air-to-air mission and more to an air-to-ground mission (e.g. larger weapons bays). If that's the case, it would probably be no match to the F22, and in the best case be an equivalent to the F35 (and that's assuming they manage to develop decent avionics.)

Ordinarily I fact check Jules and take deboinker statements at face value, but this one caught me.

The prototype is believed to be initially powered by WS-10 and / or the AL-31F engines.[2][43] China is currently working on an advanced domestic turbofan engine similar in performance to the Pratt & Whitney F119 coded WS-15,[44] but there are also speculations that Saturn AL-31#117S engine may be used for the initial batch of the J-20.[45][46][47] At the 2012 Zhuhai Air Show, Russia approached China in an unsuccessful bid to sell the Su-35, which included the 117S engines.[48] According to the latest news, China and Russia signed a contract for 24 Su-35 in November, 2015.[49] However, Chinese source stated that the design of J-20 is mature and it will not directly use 117S engine.[31]

The production version of the J-20 is believed to be powered by the WS-15,[44] a turbofan engine currently under development.[45][50][51] According to Global Security, the engine core, composed of high pressure compressors, the combustion chamber, and high pressure turbines were successfully tested in 2005.[52] An image of the core appeared in the 2006 Zhuhai Air Show.[43][45][51][53][54][55]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20

Not sure why Jules responded with an argument from incredulity instead of information, but there you are, fresh from los wikis.

The reason it caught my eye is Chinese space hardware is based on Russian equipment they bought and either cloned outright or stole ideas from, because they dont want to be beholden to Russia or hamstrung by outdated Russian engineering. At a state level it make sense to develop and build military hardware in-country rather than buy it.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I'm with prestige on this one: combined arms is what wins.

@Segnosaur: what is wrong with Russian engines, in your opinion?

 

[Seismosaurus]

This is why I fear America is destined to be eclipsed by China - it's this attitude. it's the attitude that the rivsl (i.e., China) can nothing right and any recognition of a Chinese strength is somehow equivalent to intellectual teason.

That is indeed a bad attitude.

But here's what's not : achieving success in high technology military systems is really, really, really hard. It takes tremendous amounts of money, a great deal of time, and a hell of a lot of refinement. And that success has to take place on many different fronts, most of which don't appear to the public.

China has clearly made great strides in recent times. But whilst it has made that progress, and whilst it bypasses a lot of the development the US has had to do by simply stealing or copying... it's still just very unlikely that it has bridged that gap enough to field systems that are on a par with those of the US. The US has been building stealth aircraft for decades now, and you just don't accumulate that base of experience in a few years.

In short, it's very unlikely that the J-20 is as good as the F-22 at what it does. It's unlikely bordering on impossible that the J-20 has the quality of support behind and around it that the F-22 does.

This is not "rah-rah-USA" talk - I'm not even from the USA! This is rather an acceptance of the fact that making your shiny cool-looking aircraft is a rather small fraction of what you have to do to field a high-end military capability.

I believe - and fear - that Chinese Hegomony is the future - America has not the capability to meaningfully reflect and take a different course that would change the outcome. Let us hope the Chinese are not arrogant and cruel hegemon.

People used to say that about Japan, you know.

 

[LSSBB]

This is why I fear America is destined to be eclipsed by China - it's this attitude. it's the attitude that the rivsl (i.e., China) can nothing right and any recognition of a Chinese strength is somehow equivalent to intellectual teason. I see the attitude running rampant in the USofA, and I think its an insidious poison. This is the attitude that prevents this the US from recognizing its own shortcomings and correcting them in order to maintain a lead.

Every year China grows stronger and stronger, but Americans dismiss every gain as meaningless and continue drinking their own bathwater like it were a rare champagne. And long before it become apparant to Americans that China no longer feels militarily awed by the US, the US economy will be vastly inferior to the Chinese economy. It's happening.

Don't kid yourself. America's great War Machine of which it is so proud was built on relative economic might - an edge no one else in the world had....until now. And now that China has also got a great economy, you're going to find out just how quickly they can also develop a great War Machine. And by the time Americans fully appreciate what has happened, it will be too late....or so I believe.

I believe - and fear - that Chinese Hegomony is the future - America has not the capability to meaningfully reflect and take a different course that would change the outcome. Let us hope the Chinese are not arrogant and cruel hegemon.

Well, that certainly escalated quickly.

 

[Segnosaur]

@Segnosaur: what is wrong with Russian engines, in your opinion?

I do not know if any specific problems with the Russian engines. My main concern is that a country that is trying to show off its military capability but has to buy key components from a potentially rival nation is going to find it difficult to become top-of-the-heap.

(there may also be an issue using an engine designed for a 4th generation plane in a 5th generation plane in terms of things like efficiency, fuel consumption, etc. But I will leave that for people more familiar with engine design to address the issue. Can the AL31 engine used in the J20 even supercruise?)