• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

I've checked the 538 forecast daily since just after the DNC, and every day I'm floored by how low Trump's chances keep getting.

Obviously there's going to be some kind of rebound at some point, but damn...
 
Cl1mh4224rd said:
Obviously there's going to be some kind of rebound at some point, but damn...
Click to expand...

Why? Trump could have peaked and what we're seeing is that the Undecides are making up their minds based on his antics and they may not change their minds unless he changes dramatically.

What I find amazing is that the Battle Ground States now appear to be going to be Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and TEXAS!

Who would have believed that possible 12 months ago?
 
Cl1mh4224rd said:
I've checked the 538 forecast daily since just after the DNC, and every day I'm floored by how low Trump's chances keep getting.

Obviously there's going to be some kind of rebound at some point, but damn...
Click to expand...

Oh Trump will probably have a five point rebound,somewhere along the line,but that will leave Hillary with a very comfortable leave.
THe problem is if this was just a post convention bounce for Hilary, it would have begun to go down late last week, but instead the margin is widening.
 
Last edited:
PhantomWolf said:
Why? Trump could have peaked and what we're seeing is that the Undecides are making up their minds based on his antics and they may not change their minds unless he changes dramatically.

What I find amazing is that the Battle Ground States now appear to be going to be Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and TEXAS!

Who would have believed that possible 12 months ago?
Click to expand...

If those truly are the battleground states, it's over and this is a race to see if Hillary can make some coattails.
 
Tony Stark said:
That's what they call it, "polls only".
Click to expand...

Sorry..brain malfunction. I thought you were saying those odds were "only" as if it wasnt significant. I'm having one of those days where I'm just slow on the uptake.

I usually play a lot of online chess. I'm afraid, if I played today, I'd be hanging pieces.
 
I heard today that Dukakis had a nineteen point lead in August. Let's not count our chickens just yet.
 
phiwum said:
I heard today that Dukakis had a nineteen point lead in August. Let's not count our chickens just yet.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's true. I'd have to do some digging, but I read that no one leading by end of the Olympics has lost since 1960. My recollection it was that it was a tight race until the Willie Horton ads came out. And instead of responding to those ads quickly, Dukakis's campaign didn't get anything out for almost a month and that was the ball game.
 
Last edited:
I said before that the 538 forecast (polls only) would have Hillary at 90%+ in October, maybe September. Looks like it might hit that in August (currently at 87.5%).
 
The sad thing is.. Trump actually represents the Republican party views, they are jumping ship because he's actually saying it though.
 
Young Mexican-Americans will be a heck of a force if they follow through and vote. You will never find them via landline though. They might be a statistical wild card, but my guess is that they absolutely will be motivated to vote.
 
phiwum said:
I heard today that Dukakis had a nineteen point lead in August. Let's not count our chickens just yet.
Click to expand...

The important difference is that Dukakis had about ten points going into the Dem convention in mid-July and the seventeen - or call it 19 if you want - was the peak, post-bump. The GOP didn't have their convention until mid-August, and they'd already started to get "on message" and were cutting into that lead. By two weeks after the GOP convention, Dukakis' lead was down to seven. This year, we've already had both bumps.

We also have a lot more polls twenty-eight years later. At this point, reporting two-way polls is just silly. It's a four-way race. Trump barely broke 40 per cent at his best in four-way polling and that was right after his convention bounce. He's now below 37.

Now, it's possible that part of the Dukakis fiasco could come 'round again. I'm sure there's someone out there who thinks it's a good idea to have Hillary dress up as a soldier and ride around in a tank, but I tend to doubt it. And there's no Willie Horton route... Dukakis had it implied that he set a murderer free... a dark scary murder boogie boogie boogie... Hillary's been accused of murder... twice. What more could they throw at her?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom