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What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

Mader Levap said:
My prediction: he will bounce back, but to level slightly lower than previous polls indicated. Then he will say something insanely retarded again, drop in polls and return back... to level that is slightly below last one (that was already smaller!).

Rinse, repeat for three months. This will be downward spiral of death. No wonder republicans are running around like headless chicken and try to concoct hairbrained schemes to get Trump to drop.

Dear kids, gentleman and ladies, this is how nominating insane fascist clown ends up. And republicans can blame only themself.
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I wonder what internal GOP polls show. Can't be good with them freaking out like they are. Could they be worse than the polls done by the media?
 
CNN/ORC poll: Obama’s approval rating has risen to 54%, the highest of his second term. https://t.co/SDlXrKh2zy

And the highest since he killed bin Laden.

Bad news for Donald and great news for Hillary.

Arguing that Hillary will be Obama's third term is a poor strategy for Donald, not that he's smart enough to realize.
 
Tony Stark said:
I wonder what internal GOP polls show. Can't be good with them freaking out like they are. Could they be worse than the polls done by the media?
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They are freaking out because Trump is "off message" attacking other Republicans instead of his opponent. He is so thin-skinned, he can't do anything else. Has to respond to any perceived slight with juvenile insults.
 
Tony Stark said:
CNN/ORC poll: Obama’s approval rating has risen to 54%, the highest of his second term. https://t.co/SDlXrKh2zy
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How much of this do you think is due to the public actually revising their opinion of the Obama administration ?

I note in sport that that the much reviled cocky or super-focused rookie becomes the much respected elder statesman as they get older and the audience get used to them. They may not have changed that much, if at all, but public acceptance of them has.

I also not that both Trump and Hillary are comparatively unpopular. Could it just be that Obama looks good by comparison to those Presidential candidates ?

Personally, I think that from this side of the Atlantic, Obama's successes have been much more visible over the last 1-2 years. It seems that his first 4 or 5 years were spent playing rope-a-dope with the GOP and ACA aside not much was achieved. Once the GOP had punched themselves out, Obama has pulled off a series of legislative and diplomatic coups.
 
The Don said:
How much of this do you think is due to the public actually revising their opinion of the Obama administration ?

I note in sport that that the much reviled cocky or super-focused rookie becomes the much respected elder statesman as they get older and the audience get used to them. They may not have changed that much, if at all, but public acceptance of them has.

I also not that both Trump and Hillary are comparatively unpopular. Could it just be that Obama looks good by comparison to those Presidential candidates ?

Personally, I think that from this side of the Atlantic, Obama's successes have been much more visible over the last 1-2 years. It seems that his first 4 or 5 years were spent playing rope-a-dope with the GOP and ACA aside not much was achieved. Once the GOP had punched themselves out, Obama has pulled off a series of legislative and diplomatic coups.
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It probably has a lot to do with the country realizing how lucky we've been with Obama compared to who might replace him.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
538 Polls only: 73 to 27

Remember, they give the polls weighted numbers based on the reliability track records.
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Let's get on the same page Ginger. The 538 is NOT a poll. It is the odds. As we approach election day and Hillary maintain a strong 10 point lead 538 will soar to more than 90 to 10 odds. But the Trump vote will still get 35 percent of the vote.
 
Puppycow said:
They are freaking out because Trump is "off message" attacking other Republicans instead of his opponent. He is so thin-skinned, he can't do anything else. Has to respond to any perceived slight with juvenile insults.
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While they still wouldn't like his behavior, they would be able to deal with it if the polls were good.
 
Tony Stark said:
I wonder what internal GOP polls show. Can't be good with them freaking out like they are. Could they be worse than the polls done by the media?
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The GOP is still so far behind the Democrats in this field that they might be looking at the public polls and reacting knowing that public polls tend to have a very slight (+1-2%) GOP bias except Rasmussen which is in the tank.
 
The morning polls are going to make some very unhappy Republicans. The most conservative electoral map is still on RCP. They just moved 4 EC votes to Clinton, for NH where the latest poll has her up in double digits. But they're still unwilling to move what are apparently "locks"..... PA, MI, WI, and there are very worrisome polls today from two of those, PA and MI. So they only show Clinton at 206, rather than the 250 they should show. I've never seen them touching up so many gray areas. In the appearance of fairness they also show Missouri and Georgia as toss-ups, I guess and both of those are solid red states.

The thing is, both his own campaign and their Super Pac have stated that they absolutely cannot win without taking FL, NC, PA, OH. And it's not an "if you don't take one of those, then here's the plan.... THERE IS NO OTHER PLAN. Right now, I'd give Trump NC,... maybe. I don't see him taking FL and PA, and it's likely he falls victim in OH to the Rove Vapors. They're counting on the Reagan Democrats, and they may not be as a big a demographic as they think they are.
 
The Don said:
How much of this do you think is due to the public actually revising their opinion of the Obama administration ?

I note in sport that that the much reviled cocky or super-focused rookie becomes the much respected elder statesman as they get older and the audience get used to them. They may not have changed that much, if at all, but public acceptance of them has.

I also not that both Trump and Hillary are comparatively unpopular. Could it just be that Obama looks good by comparison to those Presidential candidates ?

Personally, I think that from this side of the Atlantic, Obama's successes have been much more visible over the last 1-2 years. It seems that his first 4 or 5 years were spent playing rope-a-dope with the GOP and ACA aside not much was achieved. Once the GOP had punched themselves out, Obama has pulled off a series of legislative and diplomatic coups.
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Frankly with the raw obstructionism of Congress its a miracle he got anything done. Having a popular incumbent willing to go to bat for the candidate is a big asset. Al Gore's biggest mistake was distancing himself from Bill Clinton, Hillary isn't going to make that mistake.
 
Paul Manfort says not to worry,they expeted a drop in the polls, everything is going great.
Shades of Baghdad Bob.
 
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The Don said:
... I also not that both Trump and Hillary are comparatively unpopular. ....
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People keep repeating how unpopular Clinton is. The news media reminded us daily that polls found her untrustworthy yadda yadda.

And yet here she is, she won the primary and she's seriously ahead in the polls.
 
acbytesla said:
Let's get on the same page Ginger. The 538 is NOT a poll. It is the odds. As we approach election day and Hillary maintain a strong 10 point lead 538 will soar to more than 90 to 10 odds. But the Trump vote will still get 35 percent of the vote.
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Yes let's. I posted all three numbers: Polls, Polls Plus and odds (aka now-cast) if election were today. I also pointed out they used weighted values for the polls.

Perhaps you might like to revisit the post?

Oh look, I said odds.
538 Polls only: 73 to 27
Polls plus: 69:31
Odds if the election were today: 87:11
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:rolleyes:
 
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