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What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

Tony Stark said:
That's the CNN poll. And yeah, if Hillary wins by nine points it won't be considered a close race. It will also probably result in the Democrats taking the House and definitely the Senate.
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It looks like everyone has finally caught on to the fact that Donald Trump is that crazy uncle you see on the holidays who spins conspiracy stories. I like my crazy uncle, but I try to keep him from going off. But as much as I like him I wouldn't elect him to anything.
 
Nate Silver: Our forward-looking models have Clinton's Election Day win probability at around 70%. They want a bit more proof she can sustain her bounce.

Just a few days ago they had it at like 50:50. Terrible week for Donald. I think it will keep on getting worse for him and that the forecasts will be at >90% in October or maybe even September.
 
To be honest, I don't see it getting beyond 80% in favor of Hilary, for various reasons having to do with how statistics operate.
 
Tony Stark said:
Their final forecast for Obama in 2012 was like 90%.
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Yeah, if literally nothing changes the model will continue to up Clinton's chances just because there is less time for something weird to happen that'd shift the race.
 
Tony Stark said:
Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 10 points, both seen as flawed



LMAO, I can see Donald flipping his **** when he finds out about this. Will he hate Fox News now too?
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Well a lot of the commentators on the article certainly seem believe that FOX has become part of the liberal media.

What's tragic for the Republicans is that Hillary Clinton is the candidate they've been preparing to fight for a decade or more, and when the time comes they blow it by picking Trump to face her.
 
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Norman Alexander said:
Maybe he will very publicly put them on the ever-increasing list of media organisations he has banned from his presentations and press conferences and other public events.
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At this stage, wouldn't be simpler for him to have list of allowed media organisations? What would be there beside infowars? Stormfront? 4chan's /pol/?
 
dudalb said:
To be honest, I don't see it getting beyond 80% in favor of Hilary, for various reasons having to do with how statistics operate.
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I think we need to be careful when throwing around percentages. I agree with you that there's no way Hillary beats Donald 80% to 20% (as vote totals), however, her chances of winning will continue to increase to 90%+ as we get closer and closer to the election and polls continue to show her ahead.

This is not directed at you dudalb, your post just pointed out the confusion of using percentages in different ways.
 
PhreePhly said:
I think we need to be careful when throwing around percentages. I agree with you that there's no way Hillary beats Donald 80% to 20% (as vote totals), however, her chances of winning will continue to increase to 90%+ as we get closer and closer to the election and polls continue to show her ahead.

This is not directed at you dudalb, your post just pointed out the confusion of using percentages in different ways.
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538 has chance of winning as of now at

Clinton 73.6 %
Trump 23.2 %
 
It's no longer a bounce; more like a ricochet.

And the real tell would seem to be that there really wasn't much of a Trump convention bounce. The cumulative effect of the Dems' in-party dissent heading to the convention, the spin on the Gowdy hearing anti-result and the double-spin-reverse-sideways look at the FBI investigations were taking their toll. Hillary's nadir in the polls was when the daily coverage was all of those elements. July 15. Trump's peak popularity was after the convention, but it was a whopping four points over his numbers from fifteen days earlier.... not a huge bounce by most standards. We were all looking at the CNN poll which now looks more like an out-lier than anything else. He only ever got that four points and that's inflated by the anomalous CNN poll and the heavily GOP-weights LA Times poll, both of which have regressed to the norm.

The next party head who allows the competition to schedule their convention to commence a scant four days after his/hers ends? Will be fired for even suggesting it. If you schedule your convention for the 11th and the other guy announces theirs for the 18th? Re-schedule. You want fifteen days to bask in the manufactured positive press/spin.
Anyone know the history of who announced venues and dates when?
 
acbytesla said:
I thought you said the polls had it 68 to 32. I was giddy at the thought. But thought that was a bit ...over the top.

I'd dance naked in the streets if it was 68 to 32.
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538 Polls only: 73 to 27
Polls plus: 69:31
Odds if the election were today: 87:11
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Remember, they give the polls weighted numbers based on the reliability track records.
 
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Utah in play possibly?

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...088-utah-poll-clinton-in-dead-heat-with-trump

In the Republican primaries, Utah was awful for Trump:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah

He got 14% of the vote, finishing 3rd behind Kasich. Cruz got 69%. It was also not a good state for Hillary though, she only got about 20% of the vote to 80 for Sanders.

Also some talk that Mitt Romney may endorse Gary Johnson which could give Hillary-shy voters someone else to vote for. However Johnson put his foot in it with some ill-chosen words about Mormonism.

Obviously Utah is unlikely to be a swing state though, if she somehow wins there, or Johnson does, it's probably because there's a total landslide.
 
Puppycow said:
Utah in play possibly?

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...088-utah-poll-clinton-in-dead-heat-with-trump

In the Republican primaries, Utah was awful for Trump:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah

He got 14% of the vote, finishing 3rd behind Kasich. Cruz got 69%. It was also not a good state for Hillary though, she only got about 20% of the vote to 80 for Sanders.

Also some talk that Mitt Romney may endorse Gary Johnson which could give Hillary-shy voters someone else to vote for. However Johnson put his foot in it with some ill-chosen words about Mormonism.

Obviously Utah is unlikely to be a swing state though, if she somehow wins there, or Johnson does, it's probably because there's a total landslide.
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Mormons hate Donald.
 
My prediction: he will bounce back, but to level slightly lower than previous polls indicated. Then he will say something insanely retarded again, drop in polls and return back... to level that is slightly below last one (that was already smaller!).

Rinse, repeat for three months. This will be downward spiral of death. No wonder republicans are running around like headless chicken and try to concoct hairbrained schemes to get Trump to drop.

Dear kids, gentleman and ladies, this is how nominating insane fascist clown ends up. And republicans can blame only themself.
 
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