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What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

The Don said:
If the margin is wider than 4, I'll be amazed.

Trump 44-47%

Hillary 46-48%

With third party candidates accounting for the remainder.
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I don't see Trump scraping his way back up to 44, much less 47. I'd see him at 40/41. I think the bounce after the convention in Cleveland was soft support and has already eroded and we haven't seen the end of the Khan debacle.

I also think that panic is catching and a lot of Republicans are wondering why they should be the Last Loon Standing when the party stalwarts are turning against him.
 
Foolmewunz said:
I don't see Trump scraping his way back up to 44, much less 47. I'd see him at 40/41. I think the bounce after the convention in Cleveland was soft support and has already eroded and we haven't seen the end of the Khan debacle.

I also think that panic is catching and a lot of Republicans are wondering why they should be the Last Loon Standing when the party stalwarts are turning against him.
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His floor seems to be around 40%. Now, whether those people show up is another thing. I used to think this thing would be close. Trump would say something stupid, his supporters would laugh it off, Clinton would be ahead 3-5 points.

But since the RNC convention he seems to have gone off the deep end, even for Trump. It's not going to take much more for people like Paul Ryan to disown him. I'm starting to think a lot of GOP moderates are going to sit this one out, and that as long as Clinton doesn't do anything really stupid, she could win by Reagan-like margins.

Trump booting a mother and her baby out of a rally? It's like something you'd see in a movie.
 
Fudbucker said:
His floor seems to be around 40%. Now, whether those people show up is another thing. I used to think this thing would be close. Trump would say something stupid, his supporters would laugh it off, Clinton would be ahead 3-5 points.

But since the RNC convention he seems to have gone off the deep end, even for Trump. It's not going to take much more for people like Paul Ryan to disown him. I'm starting to think a lot of GOP moderates are going to sit this one out, and that as long as Clinton doesn't do anything really stupid, she could win by Reagan-like margins.

Trump booting a mother and her baby out of a rally? It's like something you'd see in a movie.
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I will bet you a quarter (my standard bet) that Ryan never withdraws his endorsement. He will criticize repeatedly, but the man is between a rock and a hard place and hasn't the balls to really commit to his principles.

He's done better than some would do in his shoes, but he won't withdraw his endorsement.

(Honestly, I think Ryan is a decent man, but I think that he's suffered enough in the Trump candidacy that, were he a person of courage and conviction, he would have disowned Trump by now. It makes me sad, even though I don't support his political views.)
 
He could get a jump if the contents of these new Clinton emails that Julian Assange is threatening to release were particularly egregious.

Whether the jump effects the Nov election may also depend on the timing of the release.
 
thaiboxerken said:
I hope you are right, we don't need any more conservative hacks in the SCOTUS.
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That's what will keep the Presidential election from being a landslide for Clinton. Republicans who hate Trump but hate the idea of Clinton picking 1, and perhaps more, Supreme Court nominees.

Denver said:
He could get a jump if the contents of these new Clinton emails that Julian Assange is threatening to release were particularly egregious.

Whether the jump effects the Nov election may also depend on the timing of the release.
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Well it firstly depends on these damning emails actually existing.
 
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Garrison said:
That's what will keep the Presidential election from being a landslide for Clinton. Republicans who hate Trump but hate the idea of Clinton picking 1, and perhaps more, Supreme Court nominees.



Well it firstly depends on these damning emails actually existing.
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Not necessarily. Even the threat of them existing, if PR'd well, can cause some swing.
 
The Don said:
I predict that there won't be a single justice appointed to the Supreme Court while there is a Democratic Party President - even if it means two full terms (in addition to the year without under Obama).
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Garland will be confirmed post haste in the lame duck because Clinton will be the POTUS elect and a middle road Garland is the best the GOP can hope for.

If the GOP loses the Senate, I figure it'll be faster tracked than you've ever seen.
 
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If Hillary wins, the Democrats will probably control the Senate. The Republicans will probably play ball on Supreme Court nominees. Otherwise the Democrats will nuke the filibuster and the Justices will be even further left than they otherwise would have been.
 
Garrison said:
That's what will keep the Presidential election from being a landslide for Clinton. Republicans who hate Trump but hate the idea of Clinton picking 1, and perhaps more, Supreme Court nominees.

Well it firstly depends on these damning emails actually existing.
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Considering there was so little actual meat in the DNC emails, one has to wonder why Assange held back.

Here's one scenario: He hasn't had a chance to read all the stuff he has and he has no idea if there is anything shocking in any of it.
 
acbytesla said:
I thought you said the polls had it 68 to 32. I was giddy at the thought. But thought that was a bit ...over the top.

I'd dance naked in the streets if it was 68 to 32.
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That's the probability - or was at the time she posted it - not the actual percentage of the electorate.
 
acbytesla said:
I thought you said the polls had it 68 to 32. I was giddy at the thought. But thought that was a bit ...over the top.

I'd dance naked in the streets if it was 68 to 32.
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The 68-32 is probably from Five Thirty Eight's election forecast, which is just each candidate's current estimated chance of winning the election.

The current forecast for the popular vote, as you can see, is 47.8% Clinton, 44.1% Trump.

ETA: Even the "Now-cast" puts the popular votes at 48.2% Clinton, 42.3% Trump.
 
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Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 10 points, both seen as flawed

Sixty-one percent of voters think Hillary Clinton is dishonest, yet she’s opened up a big lead over Donald Trump in the latest Fox News Poll.

Here’s why: majorities think Clinton is nevertheless qualified to be president, and has the temperament and knowledge to serve effectively. It’s the opposite for Trump: over half feel he is not qualified, and lacks the temperament or knowledge to lead the country. And his 62 percent dishonesty rating tops hers.

After the conventions, the Clinton-Kaine ticket leads the Trump-Pence ticket by 10 points (49-39 percent) in the race for the White House. Clinton’s advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error. A month ago, Clinton was up by six points (44-38 percent, June 26-28).
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LMAO, I can see Donald flipping his **** when he finds out about this. Will he hate Fox News now too?
 
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