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Proof of Immortality III

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- Another basic/critical claim is that the likelihood of my current existence is unimaginably small (seven billion over infinity?) when given OOFLam.


Why are you reposting all of this stuff without answering any of the defects people have pointed out to you?

You cannot divide by infinity. Infinity isn't a number. Dividing by infinity gives zero, no matter what the numerator is. There are not an infinite number of things.

A very small probability is not zero. A little bit of something is not none of something.

What test can you devise to show that the universe is not completely deterministic? Perhaps all interactions of matter have to happen exactly as they are, given the starting conditions. If the universe is required to behave as it does, then the chance of you existing is 1, not very small.

You also have not explained why we're using the likelihood of your existence. Shouldn't we at least use the likelihood that something capable of working a computer would arise somewhere in the universe? And how would you calculate that seeing as we have exactly one data point?

Why do you continue treating your existence as a thing? It isn't. It's an ever-changing process of the cooperation of a trillion separate cells. Since "you" do not exist as a thing, how is it you treat yourself as an object?


I claim, however, that if there is even a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self, my current existence -- plus Bayesian statistics -- virtually proves that OOFLam is not correct.


Why do you suspect there is a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self? What are the characteristis of this immaterial self? How is it defined? How can we test for it? Why should we believe something is possible in the absense of any evidence - oreven a coherent definition - of it?


virtually zero


How is virtually zero the same as zero? Would you rather be virtually penniless or penniless? Would you rather be virtually blind or blind?


if there is no pool of potential selves (which there surely isn't) infinity is the right concept -- each new self was brand new, and never a twinkle.


Why are you sure there's no pool of potential selves? What is the definition of a self?

If the self is formed from the material brain, then there aren't an infinity number of potential selves. The number is the same as the potential arrangements of matter at some time somewhere in the universe that can work a computer. How do zero potential selves (your position) transform into infinite selves (your position)?


- PS -- I met with the SUNYA professor I was referred to, and he didn't agree with me either...



I am very glad to hear that my alma mater continues to be a place where reason and logic have at least some haven.
 
I don't understand where you get seven billion or infinity.

Nor do I understand this part:

if there is even a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self, my current existence -- plus Bayesian statistics -- virtually proves that OOFLam is not correct.
 
I think that you guys disagree with all three (four?) claims.

It's painfully obvious that we don't agree with your premises, and we have given you copious reasons behind that disagreement -- reasons which you assiduously refuse to address. Simply restating your beliefs over and over again does not establish them. We know what your argument is. Now address the rebuttals to it.

They are:

One of my basic/critical claims is that there is a reasonable possibility that OOFLam is not correct.

You have been singularly unable to show any consequent that would require the self to persist or extend beyond a biological cause. Moreover, you have proffered a number of desperate theories and accusations for how such consequents could exist and have gone unnoticed, up to an including broad unsupported accusations of ideologically motivated malfeasance from the scientific community. You also tried telling us that such a self wouldn't have any characteristics from which a consequent may arise, thus shooting your argument squarely in the foot.

Finally, you insinuated that you had rigorous evidence ("studies") for such persistence. When asked to provide it, you sidestepped your burden of proof and simply told people to Google for what amounts to anecdotes and speculation.

Another basic/critical claim is that the likelihood of my current existence is unimaginably small...

No. I listed above, a few posts back, several of the comically varied reasons you have given for why you think your chances of existing without a soul are small. They were all rebutted and have not been rejoined. Hence we can reject this premise out of hand.

My next claim is that if those two claims are true, OOFLam is surely incorrect -- insert the appropriate numbers into the formula...

No. You do not understand how Bayesian analysis works, and you may not simply put made-up numbers into Bayes' Theorem, apply no new information, and profess that what comes out the other end is that made-up prior probability somehow rendered into fact. You are misusing Bayesian inference in exactly the same way as every fringe theorist does when compensating for his lack of fact, and the experts whom you consulted have told you as much. You may not conjure into certainty a thing which you simply believe to exist, via a magic wand that you believe lets you set a dial to quantify subjective propositions.

​

If there is no such thing as an immaterial self, OOFLam is surely correct.

No, that's backwards at best and irrelevant at worst. In order to prove immortality, you must show there is some substantial aspect of existence that transcends biological life. Any hypothesis that a thing exists engenders the null hypothesis that it does not. Your hypothesis engenders the null hypothesis that no substantial aspect of existence transcends biological life. You must overcome that null with evidence. It is absolutely irrelevant whether anyone actually believes the null, has asserted some other hypothesis for which your null would be a premise, or give that hypothesis an acronym.

So badly do you misunderstand how to structure an argument that you actually had the key factor (immaterial self) on both sides of it! You had to backpedal with the ludicrous statement that the hypothesis you were trying to falsify actually did contain the key premise but that its adherents simply didn't believe it.

I claim, however, that if there is even a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self, my current existence -- plus Bayesian statistics -- virtually proves that OOFLam is not correct.

No. You're simply trying the same old ploy that has been refuted several times already. Bayesian inference does not allow you to combine an abstract possibility with a personal religious belief and arrive at a fact.

Besides, there is nothing about having proved the existence of an immaterial component of the self that then goes on to prove immortality. Once again you can't grasp the difference between a premise being necessary to an proposition but not sufficient to establish it. And so you're stuck in the same false dilemma you always are: simply proving what you think your critics are saying is wrong does not prove that you are right.

And keep in mind that in order to extend the premise of an immaterial self to the notion that some form of immortality exists, you will have to start attributing characteristics to that self you assured us had no characteristics. Specifically, you will have to characterize that immaterial self as being inexorably connected to biological life. And in your mad scramble to insist that such a self must be beyond the ken of science, you assured us such a self had no characteristics of any kind.

So once again we see that your argument is just a rambling stream of unrelated, contradictory, ad hoc knee jerks.

PS -- I met with the SUNYA professor I was referred to, and he didn't agree with me either...

How many people must tell you that you are wrong before you consider the reasonable possibility that you might be wrong? That is not a rhetorical question.

But, I'm not finished!

You haven't even started. All you've done is to state and restate your claims as if they were self-evident. Please stop wasting everyone's time with question-begging and endless resets.
 
I don't understand where you get seven billion...

IIRC, it's his made-up figure for how many souls will live on Earth.

...or infinity.

Just a dodge to avoid (once again) having to give an actual number for his computations and justify where that number came from. That number is the crux of his claim. His having simply pulled it out of his kiester -- and explicitly labeled it at one time his subjective belief -- is the part he doesn't want questioned, which is why he has to disguise it from time to time. It's the very, very small number he can shove into an equation precisely so that the number he wants to see comes out the other side, and he can pretend he's proven something by that.

Nor do I understand this part:

"My current existence" refers to the "unimaginably small" probability that he exists in his current form without there being some sort of immortal soul to get him that way. It's the special-snowflake argument written up as the Prosecutor's Fallacy.

"Reasonable possibility" is his attempt to equivocate from his critics' stipulation that it is possible that an immortal soul exists. As previously discussed, such a stipulation arises naturally (albeit purely rhetorically) out of any agreement to entertain someone's proof that a thing exists. If the opponent cannot grant that possibility for the sake of argument, then there's no point to entertaining the argument at all.

But Jabba wants this to be a real and vital probability, such that he can quantify it in his ill-applied model. Hence the equivocation from abstract gratia arguendo possibiltiy to a stab at a real number.

Keep in mind that valid applications of Bayesian inference do something similar. If you want to use Bayesian inference to arrive at the possibility that some given person has herpes, you can use the historical herpes rate for the appropriate population. That forms a valid prior probability that John Doe has herpes. Bayesian inference would then apply various sources of information (sexual history, symptomology, blood tests) to arrive at a posterior probability that John Doe has herpes.

But don't be fooled. There's a big difference between starting with historical herpes rates as a reasonable belief for the prior probability a person has herpes and arbitrarily assigning a probability to the arguendo premise. Jabba needs that number in order to work his model (because his usage is incorrect), so he pretends it's a quantity he can know or estimate.
 
...
I have a grape. We can discuss the likelihoods of the grape being purple, or seedless, or Concord, or whatever. And given new information about the grape (perhaps its color), we can adjust our likelihood estimates.

You'd agree with that, right?

Ok, so what is the likelihood it is a grape?

js,
- I think that you're suggesting that in your scenario, having a grape is analogous to one of the variables in my scenario. If I'm right, which of my variables is the analogous one?

No. The analogy was addressing you assigning probabilities to your existence. The analogy started with "I have a grape" and ended with the question "what is the likelihood I have a grape?" The answer is 1, of course, since the grape was a given.

You scenario starts with you, an existing human.

js,
- ME isn't the "given" in my scenario. My given is OOFLam (the hypothesis).

There can be more than one given. You have an hypothesis with an estimated likelihood, and you have your very existence. Both are "given."

js,
- As far as I know, the "given" in conditional probability always refers to the hypothesis being considered. The "event" is "given" in a sense, but not the technical sense used in conditional probability...

You are raising a semantic quibble. Totally unnecessary, and it doesn't result in any change to the fundamentals.

With respect to the result you seek, your existence is a given. You may consider some hypothesis of existence first, but your existence is still a given somewhere along that path to a conclusion...
js,

- I don't think it's a quibble.
- At least as I understand it, in Bayesian statistics, "given" has a very specific meaning, and always refers to the hypothesis being considered. In addition, an hypothesis doesn't have a likelihood; it has probabilities.

- I'm slower than usual cause I'm having troubles with my computers.
 
I don't think it's a quibble.

You're right. It's not a quibble; it's an equivocation. You're equivocating between "given" as identifying one element in your model and "given" as meaning known or knowable in a more general sense. In your ongoing crusade to beg the question, you are conflating what you can know versus what you purport to be able to compute.
 
I'm slower than usual cause I'm having troubles with my computers.

Yeah, that's why the forum shows you frequently reading the board, and writing (and subsequently abandoning) posts to this thread. Typically those "unavoidable" delays occur every time you're backed into a corner and need things to cool down before your next reset.
 
I don't understand where you get seven billion or infinity.
Dave,
- Seven billion is my estimate of the current human population.
- Re infinity: if there is no pool of potential selves, each new self is brand new -- not even a twinkle. Consequently, there would be no limit on the number of selves possible.

Nor do I understand this part: "if there is even a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self, my current existence -- plus Bayesian statistics -- virtually proves that OOFLam is not correct."
- If you enter the numbers I've estimated into the formula, you get a posterior probability for OOFLam of some real number over infinity (or, over an unimaginably large number).
 
js,

- I don't think it's a quibble.
- At least as I understand it, in Bayesian statistics, "given" has a very specific meaning, and always refers to the hypothesis being considered. In addition, an hypothesis doesn't have a likelihood; it has probabilities.

Despite the very specific meaning found in statistics for likelihood, you understood what I meant anyway. Despite the very specific meaning found in Bayesian statistics for given, I suspect you understood what I meant anyway.

It seems you repeatedly and deliberately divert the discussion to wallow in the trivial minutia. This is nothing like effective debate. This is denial.
 
Seven billion is my estimate of the current human population.

That's a reasonable estimate for the population of currently living humans. However the role of the human population figure in your model is wrong. That role simply embodies your special-snowflake argument, which has been refuted. It is obvious you don't wish to address the refutation, but that doesn't change its value.

Re infinity: if there is no pool of potential selves, each new self is brand new -- not even a twinkle. Consequently, there would be no limit on the number of selves possible.

Changing horses. Earlier you told us you were using the infinity symbol as a placeholder for a quantity that was essentially an algebraic limit -- the denominator of a ratio that evaluates as close to zero as possible without actually being zero. Now you're telling us the infinity concept has a vital qualitative role in your argument.

You're quite obviously just making all this up as you go. There is no discernible coherence or logic in your claim.

If you enter the numbers I've estimated into the formula, you get a posterior probability for OOFLam of some real number over infinity (or, over an unimaginably large number).

No. If you enter made-up garbage into any formula, including Bayes' Theorem, you get garbage. Yes, a number comes out. But whether than number means anything or not depends on your skill in determining how to model the problem.

You've been told this by people you revere as professional experts. Explain why you're wasting our time and theirs by refusing to heed the advice you sought.
 
No. If you enter made-up garbage into any formula, including Bayes' Theorem, you get garbage. Yes, a number comes out. But whether than number means anything or not depends on your skill in determining how to model.


I wouldn't even give him that much. Infinity is not a number. It cannot be used in a mathematical equation and whatever you produce cannot be a number, either. If you've got infinity in an equation, you're no longer doing math.
 
I wouldn't even give him that much. Infinity is not a number. It cannot be used in a mathematical equation and whatever you produce cannot be a number, either. If you've got infinity in an equation, you're no longer doing math.

Oh, yes, I completely agree with that. I was focusing more on the GIGO phenomenon rather than the precise formulation of the G. There is a notion among fringe theorists that if a model produces a number, then that number must be reliable because you arrived at it "mathematically." Putting made-up figures into a model is one level of error. Putting things into a model that aren't numbers is another level of error. Using the wrong model is yet a third level of error. Using the wrong kind of model is the icing on the cake. Jabba is wrong from soup to nuts, and he still seems to think he can ever only be wrong in the quibbly values for his estimates.
 
- If the prior probability of immaterial selves is .001, and the likelihood of ME, given no immaterial selves, is unimaginably small, since I do currently exist, there must be immaterial selves.
- Put those figures into the formula and see what you get.


As has been pointed out, if the likelihood of your body existing (which is all that is required for YOU to exist in the hypothesis you are trying to disprove) is "unimaginably small", then the likelihood of your body existing and your particular immaterial self inhabiting it (which is required for YOU to exist under the hypothesis that immaterial selves exist) must also be unimaginably small.

So what does your formula produce if you put those figures into it and use it to consider the hypothesis that immaterial selves exist?*




*Rhetorical.
 
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Jabba.
- All you've done here is to produce an argument that will 'disprove' whatever hypothesis you use it to consider.
 
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Despite the very specific meaning found in statistics for likelihood, you understood what I meant anyway. Despite the very specific meaning found in Bayesian statistics for given, I suspect you understood what I meant anyway.

It seems you repeatedly and deliberately divert the discussion to wallow in the trivial minutia. This is nothing like effective debate. This is denial.
js,
- I knew what you meant -- but, it misses the point. Here, we take something that actually happened, but is relevant to the accuracy of a particular hypothesis and we estimate the extent to which it supports, or undermines, the hypothesis by asking how likely it is for this to happen if the hypothesis is true.
- That's what likelihood refers to.
 
Here, we take something that actually happened, but is relevant to the accuracy of a particular hypothesis...


No, you're taking an event that had already happened, and drawing a target round it. At no time since you specified your own existence as an event that would disprove "OOFLam" have you started to exist.

Let us know when your specified event occurs.
 
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- PS -- I met with the SUNYA professor I was referred to, and he didn't agree with me either...

- If I get the chance, I'll try to convey what he said -- but then, I didn't really understand what he said...



Don't sweat the understanding for now, just try to focus on the part where an expert told you you're wrong.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Here, we take something that actually happened...

How many knowledgeable people must tell you this is not a proper Bayesian formulation before it actually sinks in? Mojo has the most succinctly correct analysis: You have simply drawn a circle of subjective belief around an event and pretended that the event proves the circle you drew. There is nothing Bayesian about that. There is nothing rational about that.

...but is relevant to the accuracy of a particular hypothesis...

No.

The only relevance between the existence of an immortal soul and your presence as a unique individual is the one you have invented. You speculate that the only way you can exist as you do is if you have an immortal soul. it's not as if you have been coy in declaring this nothing more than your personal belief. But you have shown absolutely no evidence of that supposed dependence. None whatsoever.

Jsfisher is absolutely correct when he points out that you start out with the belief that you cannot probably exist without a soul and then purport to have proved that soul's existence by showing you exist. It doesn't get any more circular than that.



That's what likelihood refers to.

That's what likelihood would refer to if there were any evidenced connection between a hypothesis and an event. Before you can reason about probabilities under a parameter, you have to show that there is such a parameter.

You have not done this.
 
For those of you just tuning in, here are the latest scores after 4 years of non-stop rhetorical action.

Effective Debate: Jabba 0, Skeptics 1
Shroud Authenticity: Jabba 0, Skeptics 1
Proof of Immortality: Jabba 0, Skeptics 1
 
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