1396
- If the prior probability of immaterial selves is .001, and the likelihood of ME, given no immaterial selves, is unimaginably small, since I do currently exist, there must be immaterial selves.
- Put those figures into the formula and see what you get.
1403
The likelihood of you given no immaterial selves is not unimaginably small. It's no smaller than the likelihood of Mount Rainier.
If immaterial selves do exist, then we don't know the likelihood of a particular immaterial self existing, because we don't know anything about the processes that result in the existence of an immaterial self.
1423
Dave,
- But "no immaterial selves" is not part of the given.
1433
(From1396)
- If the prior probability of immaterial selves is .001, and the likelihood of ME, given no immaterial selves, is unimaginably small, since I do currently exist, there must be immaterial selves.
1443
Dave,
- My bad. I'll be back.
- In trying to bring the immateriality issue into the spotlight, I screwed up.
- One of my basic/critical claims is that there is a reasonable possibility that OOFLam is not correct.
- Another basic/critical claim is that the likelihood of my current existence is unimaginably small (seven billion over infinity?) when
given OOFLam.
-My next claim is that if those two claims are true, OOFLam is surely incorrect -- insert the appropriate numbers into the formula, and the posterior probability of OOFLam is also unimaginably small. (The likelihood of my current existence, given non-OOFLam, isn't anything we have to worry about if the other two claims are true.)
- I think that you guys disagree with all three (four?) claims.
- With the immateriality issue, I was trying to show how closely those claims are tied to immateriality... If there is no such thing as an immaterial self, OOFLam is surely correct. I claim, however, that if there is even a reasonable possibility of an immaterial self, my current existence -- plus Bayesian statistics -- virtually proves that OOFLam is not correct.
- P(H|E) = P(E|H)*P(H)/(P(E|H)*P(H)+P(E|~H)*P(~H))
- P(H|E) = 7,000,000,000/∞*.99/(7,000,000,000/∞*.99+.0052*.01)
- Or, P(H|E) is something like virtually zero -- unimaginably small.
- I used "∞" above because there is no symbol (that I can find) for "unimaginably small," and if there is no pool of potential selves (which there surely isn't) infinity is the right concept -- each new self was brand new, and never a twinkle.
- PS -- I met with the SUNYA professor I was referred to, and he didn't agree with me either...
- If I get the chance, I'll try to convey what he said -- but then, I didn't really understand what he said... But, I'm not finished!