Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[gabeygoat]

Speaking of that I recently learned something. Of the ~11 million illegals, half are not from Mexico. We cannot just dump them over the Mexican border. Each would have to be repatriated to the country of origin. And that repatriation isn't going to involve driving them back, because Mexico is not going to let a bus full of undocumented folks into their country. The same goes for trains. So we will need a small fleet of airplanes or fleet of boats to move 5.5 million people.




I will agree that that list looks frightening, unconstitutional, and unpractical. But do we have any evidence that Trump wants to do those things? Sure he has championed those ideas during the primaries, but is that enough to say that Trump wants to implement any of them?

I am willing to say I'm very scared of Trump because he has no political experience and appears to have little or no understanding of how the federal government works. But I am not convinced he wants to do all the things on the list. I say he is just BS-ing his way to the front of the pack by telling stories that some people want to hear.

It doesn't matter if he really wants fascist policies. It matters that fascists want him.

 

[Joey McGee]

The best predictor of Trump support isn't income, education, or age. It's authoritarianism.

When political scientists use the term authoritarianism, we are not talking about dictatorships but about a worldview. People who score high on the authoritarian scale value conformity and order, protect social norms, and are wary of outsiders. And when authoritarians feel threatened, they support aggressive leaders and policies.

Authoritarianism and a hybrid variable that links authoritarianism with a personal fear of terrorism were the only two variables that predicted, with statistical significance, support for Trump.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism

Pretty much every supporter wants to see him tell people that they're fired, hoping secretly that it will be filmed and shown Tuesday nights at 8pm.

 

[KwamiFabu]

Anyway, I looked into it and it's a big fat nothing-burger. In answer to a question from a senator, she said that the question of a civil action (that means not a criminal action, i.e., it doesn't involve "throwing anyone in jail") had been "discussed", not that she had any plans to actually take any action.

On the other hand, Sen. James Inhofe has advocated for "criminal investigations" of climate scientists, and Michael Mann was the target of an investigation by VA attorney general Ken Cuccinelli:

Sen. Inhofe inquisition seeking ways to criminalize and prosecute 17 leading climate scientists

Attorney General of Virginia's climate science investigation

So apparently it's Inhofe and Cuccinelli who want to throw you in jail if you disagree with their views on climate science.

Don't take my word for it brah.

Attorney General: We've discussed prosecuting climate change deniers

The US Department of Justice has been considering whether people should be prosecuted for the offense of climate change denial.

“This matter has been discussed. We have received information about it and have referred it to the FBI to consider whether or not it meets the criteria for which we could take action on,” said Attorney General Loretta Lynch, responding to a question from green activist Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) at a Senate Judiciary Hearing.

As for Mann, he is a fraud who was never close to being thrown in jail, but never resists a chance to sue anyone who disagrees with him.

Finally, don't believe everything you read on Wikipedia. Especially about AGW. The William Connolley episode demonstrates how easily corrupted, and corrupt, climate science is.

One person in the nine-member Realclimate.org team -- U.K. scientist and Green Party activist William Connolley -- would take on particularly crucial duties. Connolley took control of all things climate in the most used information source the world has ever known -Wikipedia. Starting in February 2003, just when opposition to the claims of the band members were beginning to gel, Connolley set to work on the Wikipedia site. He rewrote Wikipedia's articles on global warming, on the greenhouse effect, on the instrumental temperature record, on the urban heat island, on climate models, on global cooling. On Feb. 14, he began to erase the Little Ice Age; on Aug. 11, the Medieval Warm Period. In October, he turned his attention to the hockey stick graph. He rewrote articles on the politics of global warming and on the scientists who were skeptical of the band. Richard Lindzen and Fred Singer, two of the world's most distinguished climate scientists, were among his early targets, followed by others that the band especially hated, such as Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, authorities on the Medieval Warm Period.

All told, Connolley created or rewrote 5,428 unique Wikipedia articles. His control over Wikipedia was greater still, however, through the role he obtained at Wikipedia as a website administrator, which allowed him to act with virtual impunity. When Connolley didn't like the subject of a certain article, he removed it -- more than 500 articles of various descriptions disappeared at his hand. When he disapproved of the arguments that others were making, he often had them barred -- over 2,000 Wikipedia contributors who ran afoul of him found themselves blocked from making further contributions. Acolytes whose writing conformed to Connolley's global warming views, in contrast, were rewarded with Wikipedia's blessings. In these ways, Connolley turned Wikipedia into the missionary wing of the global warming movement.

 

[Maya22]

Shouldn't this be in th US Ellection sub-forum?

 

[Ladewig]

Maybe it's BS and maybe it isn't. But if he gets in and implements these states policies you will have no excuse that he never told you he would do it.

Let's back up a couple of years. When Trump was playing at being a Birther, he really knew that Obama was a natural born US citizen who had every right to run for the presidency. The only reason he would hold press conferences to say that "his investigators are getting very close -a big announcement is very soon," was so he could get his name in the press. He was doing it for the attention, not because he thought Sheriff Arpaio was a master detective trying to save America.

Besides, one third of that list contain items that he goes back and forth on. He was for torture before he was against torture before he was for torture.

His is playing a game. Preying on people's emotions. BS-ing his way to the front.

 

[Ladewig]

It doesn't matter if he really wants fascist policies. It matters that fascists want him.

Yes.
I am more afraid of the beliefs of Trump's supporters than the beliefs of Trump.

Although I will confess that parts of Trump worry me. His thin skin for instance. His immature and petulant style. His inability to hire people who disagree with him. His fascination with leasing his name. But the point I am trying to make is his saying he wants torture is not evidence that he wants (or could implement) torture.

But I think I agree with you: I find that 10-20% of the general population unashamedly wanting formal religious discrimination, torture of suspects, and the deliberate execution of non-combatants, coupled with their unshakeable belief that these things will make America safer, is discouraging, creepy, and frightening.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Predictions as to whether Trump will be President.

Here is what the Tarot cards say: (for fun)

1. Will Trump win the nomination?
Trump has a strong interest in success, and he will win it in a business-like manner. There will be renewed ideas and possible social unrest with labor support for him.

2. Will Trump win the Presidential election?
Trump will pander to the masses, and to the mainstream religions. He will win an emotional victory. But he will face opposition from forces that will not want to recognize him. However, he will bull his way through with determination and achieve cooperation and balance.

3. Repeat. Will he win the election?
It is going to be a tough nasty fight. But yes. There will be fresh opportunities that will open up.

4. Repeat. Will he be sworn in as President?
Trump is going to cause disruption to the old ways. The establishment will be defeated. But yes he will be sworn in.

5. Will Trump stay the full first term?
Yes. He will do the right things. The outcome for the country will be very good.

Specific enough for you skeptics?

My personal comment: One cannot make an omelette without cracking a few eggs.

 

[Maya22]

2. Will Trump win the Presidential election?
Trump will pander to the masses, and to the mainstream religions. He will win an emotional victory. But he will face opposition from forces that will not want to recognize him. However, he will bull his way through with determination and achieve cooperation.

I know that Trump has pandered to Christians and Jews. I don't know of he has pandered to people who follow other religions. Due to various comments Trump has made, I have trouble seeing him pander to any Muslims except for the rich Muslims and Muslims who hold public office.

 

[PartSkeptic]

My personal opinions:

The USA is ripe for fascism, as are other countries. The rich have gotten rich and the middle class are feeling the pinch. Fascism is National Social Democracy. It features an authoritarian ruling group that act in the interests of the nation.

It also constrains capitalism in that the bourgeoisie (managers) are expected to make a productive contribution rather than siphoning wealth off others and not making anything. The proletariats (workers) are expected to be productive and get paid a decent wage.

Those who are non-productive and reactionary are to be discouraged as counter-productive. But those who wish to contribute will find support.

The elements of Mussolini-style Fascism and Nazism (National Socialist German Workers Party) which were expansionist and racist are not basic tenants of ordinary fascism, and are unlikely to be part of American fascism.

Trump cannot win by being racist. He is against Muslims with terrorist possibilities. He is against illegal Mexicans.

The majority of the country is in agreement with him on this (and I would say even the legal immigrants).

Trump is anti-establishment (Wall Street + Politicians + Media), and so are many citizens. This is a major weakness of Hillary, and Trump will exploit it.

Trump is a traditionalist and is pro-religion. So is a large part of the USA.

Trump says that the media are biased and unreliable. He is being proven correct.

One area of media bias is where they say America is doing well. They are not. The jobs are not as good as before, manufacturing is declining quickly, wages have been stagnant but inflation is not. Corporate American used to pay 30% of the income taxes but now pay 10%. The free trade is detrimental (bad deals).

Trump will downsize the military and not get involved in foreign wars.

 

[Tony Stark]

My personal opinions:

The USA is ripe for fascism, as are other countries. The rich have gotten rich and the middle class are feeling the pinch. Fascism is National Social Democracy. It features an authoritarian ruling group that act in the interests of the nation.

It also constrains capitalism in that the bourgeoisie (managers) are expected to make a productive contribution rather than siphoning wealth off others and not making anything. The proletariats (workers) are expected to be productive and get paid a decent wage.

Those who are non-productive and reactionary are to be discouraged as counter-productive. But those who wish to contribute will find support.

The elements of Mussolini-style Fascism and Nazism (National Socialist German Workers Party) which were expansionist and racist are not basic tenants of ordinary fascism, and are unlikely to be part of American fascism.

Trump cannot win by being racist. He is against Muslims with terrorist possibilities. He is against illegal Mexicans.

The majority of the country is in agreement with him on this (and I would say even the legal immigrants).

Trump is anti-establishment (Wall Street + Politicians + Media), and so are many citizens. This is a major weakness of Hillary, and Trump will exploit it.

Trump is a traditionalist and is pro-religion. So is a large part of the USA.

Trump says that the media are biased and unreliable. He is being proven correct.

One area of media bias is where they say America is doing well. They are not. The jobs are not as good as before, manufacturing is declining quickly, wages have been stagnant but inflation is not. Corporate American used to pay 30% of the income taxes but now pay 10%. The free trade is detrimental (bad deals).

Trump will downsize the military and not get involved in foreign wars.

Trump is disliked by a huge majority of the country.

 

[PartSkeptic]

I know that Trump has pandered to Christians and Jews. I don't know of he has pandered to people who follow other religions. Due to various comments Trump has made, I have trouble seeing him pander to any Muslims except for the rich Muslims and Muslims who hold public office.

Trump has said that he wishes to be neutral in negotiating peace in the Middle East. This statement is possibly what Muslims want to hear above all. What caused anti-West emotions and Jihadism is the West's meddling in the Middle East.

Trump states bluntly that Muslims hate the US and it is time to determine why. He does not echo the mantra that Islam is a bad religion, and it is a hint that the US might be partly to blame.

Trump made a bald statement about banning Muslims (highly popular) but qualified it as temporary and aimed at excluding terrorists.

Muslims are not voting in large numbers and are not influential in the election process.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Trump is disliked by a huge majority of the country.

The polls have been very wrong before. Look at the last UK poll compared with voting results.

The only poll that counts is the voting process.

Trump will sway voters once he has the nomination for the Republican party.

The voters want change. Obama got in on this platform. But then Obama put in establishment advisors and found he could not achieve change. Trump will purge the current advisors and put in his people who have the same agenda. Particularly the generals.

 

[Tony Stark]

The polls have been very wrong before. Look at the last UK poll compared with voting results.

The only poll that counts is the voting process.

Trump will sway voters once he has the nomination for the Republican party.

He'll sway voters to hate him even more than they already do (and they already hate him a lot). Because he is clearly and obviously a disgusting piece of **** and is incapable of hiding that fact.

 

[Ladewig]

The polls have been very wrong before. Look at the last UK poll compared with voting results.

The only poll that counts is the voting process.

Trump will sway voters once he has the nomination for the Republican party.

The voters want change. Obama got in on this platform. But then Obama put in establishment advisors and found he could not achieve change. Trump will purge the current advisors and put in his people who have the same agenda. Particularly the generals.

When you say "particularly the generals" do you mean the Joint Chiefs of Staff or are you talking about generals further down the line?

 

[PartSkeptic]

He'll sway voters to hate him even more than they already do (and they already hate him a lot). Because he is clearly and obviously a disgusting piece of **** and is incapable of hiding that fact.

Do I detect some bias?

It is not a good idea to underestimate your enemies.

BTW. I like Bernie Sanders. I think Trump and Sanders have a similar socialistic agenda, and neither is tied to big money. Trump has the force of personality to force change. There are some are not going to like the changes. But sidelining is probably what will happen. With some deportations of illegals.

Any atheists can probably still debate and hold their opinions openly but not push a secular agenda on others.

When I was in the USA I used to be Republican but then decided that Democrats were more in line with social fairness. Hillary is bought and paid for, and the US will have more wars, more meddling in foreign affairs and she is more likely to nuke Iran than the others. The rich will grow richer.

Then someone more right-wing than Trump may rise to power, and perhaps people will wonder why they thought Trump was unlikeable.

 

[PartSkeptic]

When you say "particularly the generals" do you mean the Joint Chiefs of Staff or are you talking about generals further down the line?

Any military man who has influence. I think there are a lot of military men who are hawkish and like foreign campaigns, and would dislike being retired. Trump needs the military to think his way, especially if there is civil unrest requiring troops.

BTW. The unrest may not be Trumps doing. It may be a pandemic, or other national upheaval.

 

[MikeG]

.......Yes. He will do the right things. The outcome for the country will be very good........

And the USA will become more isolationist and isolated, because none of your allies would be anything but embarrassed to deal with Trump and his ilk. Bush was awful enough, but Trump, from a foreign perspective, is nauseating.

 

[Tony Stark]

Do I detect some bias?

It is not a good idea to underestimate your enemies.

BTW. I like Bernie Sanders. I think Trump and Sanders have a similar socialistic agenda, and neither is tied to big money. Trump has the force of personality to force change. There are some are not going to like the changes. But sidelining is probably what will happen. With some deportations of illegals.

Any atheists can probably still debate and hold their opinions openly but not push a secular agenda on others.

When I was in the USA I used to be Republican but then decided that Democrats were more in line with social fairness. Hillary is bought and paid for, and the US will have more wars, more meddling in foreign affairs and she is more likely to nuke Iran than the others. The rich will grow richer.

Then someone more right-wing than Trump may rise to power, and perhaps people will wonder why they thought Trump was unlikeable.

Facts are facts. And the fact of the matter is that Donald Trump is EXTREMELY unpopular. Especially with groups that Republicans need to do better with if they want to ever have a shot at winning the Presidency again like college graduates, women, and minorities.

It is also a fact that he is a billionaire who wants to give massive tax cuts to rich people. But yeah, he has a similar agenda to Bernie Sanders. Sure, makes complete and perfect sense.

 

[PartSkeptic]

And the USA will become more isolationist and isolated, because none of your allies would be anything but embarrassed to deal with Trump and his ilk. Bush was awful enough, but Trump, from a foreign perspective, is nauseating.

People will deal with success. And politicians will deal with the devil if they get advantage.

If Trump pulls out of wars, there is a large proportional of the world population that would be happy with that. It is likely to reduce the terrorist threat substantially, and save the US money on wasted surveillance and policing.

If bringing manufacturing back home saves the US economy then other countries will do business. If the US is broke then the US is inconsequential anyhow.

I have seen how taking factories overseas means losing IP and research. The foreign company works with a "sister" domestic company and it is there where the innovations and ideas go. Short term profits for the US executives but long term corporate suicide.

BTW - I agree the younger Bush was a disaster.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Facts are facts. And the fact of the matter is that Donald Trump is EXTREMELY unpopular. Especially with groups that Republicans need to do better with if they want to ever have a shot at winning the Presidency again like college graduates, women, and minorities.

It is also a fact that he is a billionaire who wants to give massive tax cuts to rich people. But yeah, he has a similar agenda to Bernie Sanders. Sure, makes complete and perfect sense.

Trump is extremely unpopular in the media, and they are doing their utmost to stop him. Distortion big-time.

Trump has said he makes use of tax loopholes but says he should not be able to and nor should others. Trump does not need money. He needs to achieve. That is what motivates him.

He is likely to put a stop to high frequency trading and stock manipulation. And stop off-shore tax havens. Some rich people may be thankful Trump might stop a revolution aimed at them, and he might have some quiet powerful support.