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The "When Will Bernie Drop Out" Poll

When Will They Turn Off the Perpetual Flame at The Bern's HQ?

  • Never! We're winning this thing. Feel the Bern!

    Votes: 17 34.7%

  • End March. The numbers will be too apparent to deny.

    Votes: 3 6.1%

  • End April or at the point in April where Hillary's delegate count puts her over the top.

    Votes: 5 10.2%

  • Early June, after the huge vote count in CA leaves very little left to count

    Votes: 5 10.2%

  • Convention time. He's in this to give his Bern Bro some camera time at the convention.

    Votes: 14 28.6%

  • On Planet X there is no election. Ron Paul is President for Life

    Votes: 5 10.2%
  • Total voters
    49
  • Poll closed .
Foolmewunz said:
After the actual count gives Hillary the win by delegate count (not super delegate) alone? That'd be the third choice, mid to end of April.
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I don't think that will turn out right.

This 538 page tracks the progress of both candidates. As you can see, Hillary performs now on 114% of target, and if you track the graphs that is quite consistent in the process thus far.

She needs 2026 pledged delegates to secure a majority of pledged delegates. Even on 5 June, i.e., two days before California, NJ and a couple of other states, the tracker puts her target at 1673,5. Add 14% (what she's above target) and you get 1908, i.e., below the majority of pledged delegates.

The margins are sufficiently small that the huge number of delegates that is decided on on 7 June could upset the lead. So my vote goes to "Early June after California".
 
Manopolus said:
and also would prefer that my own party doesn't sweep actual lawbreaking under the rug for political expedience).
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Have you also written to Obama that he should prosecute GWB's torturers who, in some cases, even tortured people to death, with the utmost zeal? IMHO, the State murdering people is far more serious than unsecured emails.

(sorry for the off-topic).

To what extent would help Bernie staying on in the race help Hillary adopting more left-wing policies? And how much would she care once she's in office?
 
wareyin said:
Presumably you feel that Martin O'Malley, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, et al should have remained in the races, as well?
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Not so much. A field larger than two has a different dynamic altogether. Three would be okay, I suppose, but once you get to where The Republican Party was, it just gets too confusing, particularly when you get substantial overlaps in philosophy and style (Cruz/Rubio vs Trump, for example). There's also a pretty big difference between the level of support that Bernie is getting compared to what O'Malley had (virtually nil). Webb may as well not even be mentioned, which I noticed you didn't. He wasn't exactly prepared to compete to begin with.
 
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Man, I'd love to change my vote to vote with "the delusional", now. I still think Hillary's going to take it but Michigan has changed the landscape. Not only did Bernie out-perform per Nate Silver's calculations, but it could have a rollover effect in Ohio and Illinois. I haven't had a good crusade I could get behind in many a year.

And in the "water is wet" category: The polls are proving worthless. Believe not what you read - even the aggregate sites.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Man, I'd love to change my vote to vote with "the delusional", now. I still think Hillary's going to take it but Michigan has changed the landscape. Not only did Bernie out-perform per Nate Silver's calculations, but it could have a rollover effect in Ohio and Illinois. I haven't had a good crusade I could get behind in many a year.

And in the "water is wet" category: The polls are proving worthless. Believe not what you read - even the aggregate sites.
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If you will recall, I've been saying that for months...
 
Well, Bernie is doing as well as I thought he would (but no one believed me) in Michigan, but Mississippi looks nasty -- doesn't look like he'll get a single delegate there.
 
BenBurch said:
If you will recall, I've been saying that for months...
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Ummmm, what I recall is you claiming the Trump v Sanders and Trump v Clinton polls being meaningful and the rest of us saying, no, the Sanders is a commie ads have not yet saturated the airwaves.

And I recall you agreeing with any poll favoring Sanders and not with any poll favoring Clinton.

It's interesting that 2 or 3 state polls have been way off, but for the most part, the polls have been predictive.
 
Dog Town said:
First time. In response to many Berntard! I noticed you have no complaint over! So... ST**!
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I think that's generally Scrut. He can't control himself. Picking on losers is a hobby. He's been kinda silent since Michigan started going Bernie's way.

Hillary still comes out of the evening with more delegates. Start Spreading the Money Around, Bernie! A credible showing in a couple of southern states would've made a lot of difference. Say what you want about a "revolutionary" campaign and "grass roots", Bernie's not running on a hope and a prayer. He's concentrating his campaign money and appearances in states with an impact. He's been in Michigan numerous times in the past three weeks and while it doesn't make Fox or CNN, it's getting a lot of airplay in the local news.

He needs to over-spend in NC, in my opinion. It's got a whole lot of transplanted northerners but it's still viewed as a southern state. And it's the last place to make a credible showing in "the south". He needs a big media spend in NC and needs to make the trip(s) home/NC/Fl/NC/Cle/Chi (say). Double up on NC.
 
Foolmewunz said:
I think that's generally Scrut. He can't control himself. Picking on losers is a hobby. He's been kinda silent since Michigan started going Bernie's way.

Hillary still comes out of the evening with more delegates. Start Spreading the Money Around, Bernie! A credible showing in a couple of southern states would've made a lot of difference. Say what you want about a "revolutionary" campaign and "grass roots", Bernie's not running on a hope and a prayer. He's concentrating his campaign money and appearances in states with an impact. He's been in Michigan numerous times in the past three weeks and while it doesn't make Fox or CNN, it's getting a lot of airplay in the local news.

He needs to over-spend in NC, in my opinion. It's got a whole lot of transplanted northerners but it's still viewed as a southern state. And it's the last place to make a credible showing in "the south". He needs a big media spend in NC and needs to make the trip(s) home/NC/Fl/NC/Cle/Chi (say). Double up on NC.
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Spot on! There's a major difference in northern black, from southern. The west coast is still fluid! It aint over!
 
Foolmewunz said:
I think that's generally Scrut. He can't control himself. Picking on losers is a hobby. He's been kinda silent since Michigan started going Bernie's way.

Hillary still comes out of the evening with more delegates. Start Spreading the Money Around, Bernie! A credible showing in a couple of southern states would've made a lot of difference. Say what you want about a "revolutionary" campaign and "grass roots", Bernie's not running on a hope and a prayer. He's concentrating his campaign money and appearances in states with an impact. He's been in Michigan numerous times in the past three weeks and while it doesn't make Fox or CNN, it's getting a lot of airplay in the local news.

He needs to over-spend in NC, in my opinion. It's got a whole lot of transplanted northerners but it's still viewed as a southern state. And it's the last place to make a credible showing in "the south". He needs a big media spend in NC and needs to make the trip(s) home/NC/Fl/NC/Cle/Chi (say). Double up on NC.
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I actually like Clinton that said, I this k winning states that WO t vote Democratic any way, is weak
 
This might just be the biggest upset of all time in a presidential primary. Polls had him down 21 points on average in MI!

I had just about given up on Bernie, back to my usual apathetic vote for the least horrible candidate as usual. But he needs a victory on March 15th IMO, even a narrow one is good enough after this though.
 
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