The "When Will Bernie Drop Out" Poll

[lobosrul]

Spot on! There's a major difference in northern black, from southern. The west coast is still fluid! It aint over!

I still can't figure out why Bernie is doing so poorly with black voters

ETA: but you may be right, he's doing better with non-southern black voters. http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

"Nate, you noted one reason Sanders pulled out his victory in Michigan: He’s losing to Clinton among black voters in the state by much less than he lost to her among black voters in previous states. That may be a sign that he gets more support from black voters outside the South, which if it persists past Michigan could help him stay competitive in the Democratic race. Most of the previous primary states with enough black voters to measure their presidential preferences in exit polls were in the Southeast and the Southwest. In those regions, Clinton led Sanders among black Democratic voters by 73 percent to 19 percent, or 54 percentage points, in an aggregation of all polls so far this year by Reuters. Everywhere else, her lead narrowed to 35 percentage points: 64 percent to 29 percent. Clinton’s lead in Michigan among black voters is exactly that: 35 percent."

 

[Dog Town]

I still can't figure out why Bernie is doing so poorly with black voters

Regional education!

 

[BenBurch]

Shillarytards last line of defense!

I expect a Jewish smear as well.

 

[Dog Town]

Man, I'd love to change my vote to vote with "the delusional", now. I still think Hillary's going to take it but Michigan has changed the landscape. Not only did Bernie out-perform per Nate Silver's calculations, but it could have a rollover effect in Ohio and Illinois. I haven't had a good crusade I could get behind in many a year.

And in the "water is wet" category: The polls are proving worthless. Believe not what you read - even the aggregate sites.

This!

 

[Foolmewunz]

Regional education!

Hopefully, Bernie does a better analysis than that, but that's how it appears to southern blacks... that Sanders is a typical rocking chair liberal who thinks that southern voters are ignorant rednecks (the white one) and machine-controlled sheep (the black ones). And while it may change in the GE, right now Hillary is contesting the southern states while Bernie's been ignoring them. White or black, you kinda want that the candidate admits that you exist.

If you don't fear the paleo-conservative pushback, get out there and promote Bernie's involvement with SNCC and CORE in the 60s. Hillary was out stumping for Goldwater back then. Yeah, Rush and Hannity will burst veins in their temples, but the country as a whole is not rightwing radio. For people who were not around, street cred in the civil rights movement is a solid vote-getter IMHO. Where were the ads in Georgia, showing Bernie's connections with SNCC, even if they were marginal. Julian Bond, fer crissake??!! The second most respected black politician out of the state, ever!

I'm not saying Bernie doesn't have the cred. I'm saying that the evidence is there but that he hasn't used it. They are running a mainstream Dem campaign, concentrating on key states and all but writing off the ones they don't think they can contest. The problem with all that math is that it turned out that the states they ignored cut a swath across the old south. Perception is everything.

 

[Dog Town]

Hopefully, Bernie does a better analysis than that, but that's how it appears to southern blacks... that Sanders is a typical rocking chair liberal who thinks that southern voters are ignorant rednecks (the white one) and machine-controlled sheep (the black ones). And while it may change in the GE, right now Hillary is contesting the southern states while Bernie's been ignoring them. White or black, you kinda want that the candidate admits that you exist.

If you don't fear the paleo-conservative pushback, get out there and promote Bernie's involvement with SNCC and CORE in the 60s. Hillary was out stumping for Goldwater back then. Yeah, Rush and Hannity will burst veins in their temples, but the country as a whole is not rightwing radio. For people who were not around, street cred in the civil rights movement is a solid vote-getter IMHO. Where were the ads in Georgia, showing Bernie's connections with SNCC, even if they were marginal. Julian Bond, fer crissake??!! The second most respected black politician out of the state, ever!

I'm not saying Bernie doesn't have the cred. I'm saying that the evidence is there but that he hasn't used it. They are running a mainstream Dem campaign, concentrating on key states and all but writing off the ones they don't think they can contest. The problem with all that math is that it turned out that the states they ignored cut a swath across the old south. Perception is everything.

Again, my friend we have no argument! I still have hope, for the better!
I bet you do, as well!

 

[Foolmewunz]

I expect a Jewish smear as well.

Oh, cut it out!

I expect a lot of bending over backwards by your strange bedfellows in the various Get Hillary threads to try to read that between the lines, but if you really think that anyone in the Hillary campaign would promote an anti-semitic campaign, you're crazy. A mainstream Democrat is not going to do anything to piss off the Jewish vote. The repercussions would be so huge as to be devastating.

Where do you think there's a sufficient anti-Jewish bias that someone on her team would even feel that it would be useful? NC? FL? IL? OH?

I think in your fervor to support Bernie, you're attributing uber right wing philosophies and strategies to the Hillary people.

 

[BenBurch]

Oh, cut it out!

I expect a lot of bending over backwards by your strange bedfellows in the various Get Hillary threads to try to read that between the lines, but if you really think that anyone in the Hillary campaign would promote an anti-semitic campaign, you're crazy. A mainstream Democrat is not going to do anything to piss off the Jewish vote. The repercussions would be so huge as to be devastating.

Where do you think there's a sufficient anti-Jewish bias that someone on her team would even feel that it would be useful? NC? FL? IL? OH?

I think in your fervor to support Bernie, you're attributing uber right wing philosophies and strategies to the Hillary people.

They published a photoshopped picture of Obama in a Turban.

 

[timhau]

This might just be the biggest upset of all time in a presidential primary. Polls had him down 21 points on average in MI!

That's what Nate Silver called it. A terrific win for Bernie, and yet he's now further behind in pledged delegates than he was yesterday.

 

[Foolmewunz]

They published a photoshopped picture of Obama in a Turban.

Did they? I seem to recall someone (and Clinton's people claimed it wasn't from the campaign) digging up an actual photo of him in Kenya when he did don local garb. I heard nothing about it being photo-shopped.

Be that as it may, the question was whether you really believed that anyone in the Dem party is suicidal enough to go on a smear campaign because... Jewish. You are supposed to be a part of the political process and you don't see this as a ridiculous insinuation?

 

[varwoche]

Did they? I seem to recall someone (and Clinton's people claimed it wasn't from the campaign) digging up an actual photo of him in Kenya when he did don local garb. I heard nothing about it being photo-shopped.

Her campaign essentially admitted to releasing the photo, but it wasn't photo-shopped. It was slimy and reprehensible.

 

[angrysoba]

Man, I'd love to change my vote to vote with "the delusional", now. I still think Hillary's going to take it but Michigan has changed the landscape. Not only did Bernie out-perform per Nate Silver's calculations, but it could have a rollover effect in Ohio and Illinois. I haven't had a good crusade I could get behind in many a year.

And in the "water is wet" category: The polls are proving worthless. Believe not what you read - even the aggregate sites.

If you will recall, I've been saying that for months...

Well, that may be a little bit baby-and-bathwater. So far this result should be seen as an outlier because of how extreme the variation in forecast and result was, but it doesn't mean that the polls are worthless as predictors.

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Oh, cut it out!

I expect a lot of bending over backwards by your strange bedfellows in the various Get Hillary threads to try to read that between the lines, but if you really think that anyone in the Hillary campaign would promote an anti-semitic campaign, you're crazy. A mainstream Democrat is not going to do anything to piss off the Jewish vote. The repercussions would be so huge as to be devastating.

Where do you think there's a sufficient anti-Jewish bias that someone on her team would even feel that it would be useful? NC? FL? IL? OH?

I think in your fervor to support Bernie, you're attributing uber right wing philosophies and strategies to the Hillary people.

I mean, what would it even look like?

"Bernie says he wants to spread the wealth around... but he's going to hoard it all himself!!"

 

[applecorped]

I expect a Jewish smear as well.

On a bagel?

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Maybe she could accuse him of poisoning the water supply in Flint?

 

[TheL8Elvis]

They published a photoshopped picture of Obama in a Turban.

Her campaign essentially admitted to releasing the photo, but it wasn't photo-shopped. It was slimy and reprehensible.

It wasn't photoshopped, and I am unaware that her campaign "essentially admitted " doing it. Links ?

Also, irrelevant.

 

[lobosrul]

That's what Nate Silver called it. A terrific win for Bernie, and yet he's now further behind in pledged delegates than he was yesterday.

Yes, because he was slaughtered in Mississippi, but that was the last true deep south state to vote. NC and Florida are the last two southern states and they are demographically different than Miss. But, he needs a bit of an upset in those states. Not wins, but within 10 points.

 

[varwoche]

It wasn't photoshopped, and I am unaware that her campaign "essentially admitted " doing it. Links ?

Also, irrelevant.

First the Clinton camp denied. Then they cynically pushed back with this repulsive tacit admission:

If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely.

I'll dig up more evidence this evening time allowing.

Add: Don't mind me 16.5, I'm just a Shillary.

 

[TheL8Elvis]

First the Clinton camp denied. Then they cynically pushed back with this repulsive tacit admission:

I'll dig up more evidence this evening time allowing.

Add: Don't mind me 16.5, I'm just a Shillary.

Thanks, that's all I saw when I searched. If you find something else, great.

Either way, still pretty irrelevant.

 

[varwoche]

Thanks, that's all I saw when I searched. If you find something else, great.

Either way, still pretty irrelevant.

I didn't introduce the topic; I was correcting the record.

I'm voting* for whoever has the best chance of winning the general. As of now, I assume that's Clinton. But that said, I can't dismiss this as irrelevant**. It most certainly re-enforced my decision to vote for Obama in '08.

* If I vote. WA is a caucus state, and I'm unlikely going to invest the time if things are already decided by then.

** I agree that it's irrelevant to this thread, if that's what you mean.