Continuation Part 15: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Chris_Halkides]

quick thoughts on the information in DNA profiling

Could a reputable lab develop ancestral data from a minescule blood sample collected at the murder scene?

Strozzi,

I am not sure how much material is required for the type of information you discuss. The autosomal forensic DNA information itself has no value for anything other than identification to the best of my knowledge (there is no health-related information in the particular alleles that one has). Forensic DNA examines locations along the chromosomes that are in between genes or within a gene but not the part that codes for information.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

BARD twice over

I agree with this point. Still, I would convict him of the murder without it.

1. There is his palm print in her blood.
2. There are his shoe prints in her blood.
3. He fled the country.
4 There is his admittance that he was there.
5. There are his bizarre stories as to what happened.
6 It is not credible that he had a date with her.
7. There is the evidence that leads to the other break ins.

I think any jury would convict him even if there was not a single sample of his DNA.

Don't you?

acbytesla,

Yes. I would convict him on the handprint alone. I would convict him on the shoe prints and the fact that he fled, especially if one throws in the cuts on his hands. I realize that there is some testimony that suggests he did not have them when he left Perugia, but I suspect that this witness or witnesses was or were mistaken or for some reason simply did not observe them.

 

[katy_did]

OK - just about plausible. But now comes the bottom of the cul-de-sac into which Guede has just driven himself. He provably went home and went out dancing into the small hours of the night. This behaviour is absolutely incompatible with Guede's claims to have been in a traumatised, terrified state. A person in that state would have holed himself up in his apartment all night. Guede was, as they say, hoist by his own petard.

Hmmm, not sure I agree with the importance of the dancing. Couldn't a person who'd been through something traumatic just want to go out and get completely drunk? Or to be around people rather than being on their own? How sure can we be that a traumatised person definitely wouldn't do this? I mean, you'd have to assume Guede actually was pretty shaken up by what happened, rather than in the mood for disco, but he nonetheless went to a club. I don't see the disco dancing as very important either way.

 

[acbytesla]

acbytesla,

Yes. I would convict him on the handprint alone. I would convict him on the shoe prints and the fact that he fled, especially if one throws in the cuts on his hands. I realize that there is some testimony that suggests he did not have them when he left Perugia, but I suspect that this witness or witnesses were mistaken.

This is why Vixen suggesting that we're unfairly judging Rudy on the same quantity and quality of evidence that is being used against Amanda and Raffaele is absurd.

It's hard to trust Stefanoni and her tests for DNA in this case. So, I am more than willing to throw out all the DNA tests used in the Kercher murder case.

 

[Samson]

This is why Vixen suggesting that we're unfairly judging Rudy on the same quantity and quality of evidence that is being used against Amanda and Raffaele is absurd.

It's hard to trust Stefanoni and her tests for DNA in this case. So, I am more than willing to throw out all the DNA tests used in the Kercher murder case.

And indeed solve the crime like Sherlock Holmes. I can't imagine him dragging Amanda and Raffaele along for the ride.

 

[Dougm]

Hmmm, not sure I agree with the importance of the dancing. Couldn't a person who'd been through something traumatic just want to go out and get completely drunk? Or to be around people rather than being on their own? How sure can we be that a traumatised person definitely wouldn't do this? I mean, you'd have to assume Guede actually was pretty shaken up by what happened, rather than in the mood for disco, but he nonetheless went to a club. I don't see the disco dancing as very important either way.

All I can say is, if any of us was proven to have been at the scene of a rape/murder, in a flat we had previously never visited, and the person that lived there ended up dead, and there was no evidence of other perps, I don't think it would matter if we went dancing later, or not.

 

[Numbers]

This is why Vixen suggesting that we're unfairly judging Rudy on the same quantity and quality of evidence that is being used against Amanda and Raffaele is absurd.

It's hard to trust Stefanoni and her tests for DNA in this case. So, I am more than willing to throw out all the DNA tests used in the Kercher murder case.

While I agree that the alleged DNA evidence in the Knox-Sollecito case against the defendants was clearly not probative, the DNA evidence against Guede may or may not be an issue. One would need to evaluate it as critically and objectively as any other DNA evidence should be evaluated.

I do not know the extent that Guede and his lawyer examined the DNA evidence against him in the course of the preliminary investigation and fast-track trial leading to Guede's conviction. Guede did claim consensual digital sexual contact with the victim, being in the murder room with the victim after she was stabbed and bleeding, getting her blood on his clothes, and having his hand cut by a knife allegedly wielded by the "real" murderer.

Guede's claims suggest that he and his counsel were aware that Guede's DNA would be found in the victim and in the room, and that Guede did not have cause to deny them. Instead, Guede provided an explanation for the presence of his DNA which attempted to maintain his innocence. IMO, this suggests that the DNA findings for Guede are likely to be accurate, although Guede should have had full right to all the evidence, including, for example, DNA test EDFs of all samples and negative and positive controls, that any defendant should be entitled to.

 

[Bill Williams]

All I can say is, if any of us was proven to have been at the scene of a rape/murder, in a flat we had previously never visited, and the person that lived there ended up dead, and there was no evidence of other perps, I don't think it would matter if we went dancing later, or not.

This.

The only question is if Rudy had help for yielding to his lust (as Massei put it), a lust Rudy needed no help in translating into action.

He admits to being there. One of his stories is of consensual sex with Meredith. If one deletes the word "consensual" then that's perhaps the only thing everyone can agree upon. The DNA evidence against Rudy simply confirms overwhelming evidence against him.

With RS and AK it is completely different. Without the dodgy DNA, about which Stefanoni did not allow examination of her raw data, there is no evidence. There is no, "all the other evidence". In a reasonable legal world there is no, "three compatibilities equals a probability."

Peggy Ganong argued following the Hellmann acquittals in 2011 the point Vixen is parroting. Throw out the DNA against RS and AK, and one has to throw out the DNA evidence against Rudy. First of all there's no comparison. With Rudy, Stefanoni didn't have to keep repeating "too low" tests, until she got a "profile" on the lowest setting.

 

[Strozzi]

Duplicate

 

[Strozzi]

Hmmm, not sure I agree with the importance of the dancing. Couldn't a person who'd been through something traumatic just want to go out and get completely drunk? Or to be around people rather than being on their own? How sure can we be that a traumatised person definitely wouldn't do this? I mean, you'd have to assume Guede actually was pretty shaken up by what happened, rather than in the mood for disco, but he nonetheless went to a club. I don't see the disco dancing as very important either way.

Katy, you are onto something here. To some of us, dancing after the murder of Kercher was extreme behavior. Dancing was apparently a very common activity of Rudi's. It may have been normal. He may have found it soothing. He may have found it calming. If he felt socially isolated or awkward, dancing may have been a comfortable way for him to be with others and interact without having to engage.

 

[Numbers]

This is why Vixen suggesting that we're unfairly judging Rudy on the same quantity and quality of evidence that is being used against Amanda and Raffaele is absurd.

It's hard to trust Stefanoni and her tests for DNA in this case. So, I am more than willing to throw out all the DNA tests used in the Kercher murder case.

For the knife blade from Sollecito's kitchen, the Kercher LCN DNA allegedly detected was clearly contamination. There was no blood detected on that knife blade, and as has been explained by others, the alleged presence of DNA in the absence of blood on a knife blade allegedly used to stab or cut to produce the wounds in Kercher's neck raises suspicion (certainty, IMO) of a lab contamination event. There are many more red blood cells (basis for the blood test) than white blood cells (basis for the DNA test). Stefanoni's explanation that the DNA came from non-blood tissue is IMO bogus, since she did not base that statement on any objective or observational evidence.

The bra clasp alleged DNA results showed the profiles of several males, one possibly Sollecito, and thus the clasp was contaminated. Therefore, even if the DNA could be Sollecito's, the bra clasp cannot be used as evidence because it lacks precision (using the Italian legal term).

It is not clear that the DNA evidence against Guede shows any of these problems. Certainly that evidence deserves the same degree of scrutiny that one would apply to any DNA evidence, including that alleged against Knox or Sollecito. However, there is no unfairness to Guede by those pointing out the problems with the alleged DNA evidence against Knox and Sollecito. Unfairness to Guede, if there was any, must be attributed to the Italian forensic police and prosecutor.

 

[Numbers]

....
You actually believe the police decided immediately to mask the TOD in order to prosecute someone?

....

The TOD wouldn't have been more precise had her temperature been taken earlier after the coroner arrived. It was unknown what the temperature was inside overnight and how long the duvet was on her.

....

{Highlighting and reference numbers added to quotes.}

Grinder,

....
2. I believe the police at the direction of PM Mignini or Napoleone decided not to obtain a body temperature in order to get maximum flexibility in finding a "convenient suspect". They may have hoped that the convenient suspect was also the murderer, but that might not have been the primary concern of a prosecutor such as Mignini. Consider his record.

3. Taking the body temp is routine for homicide cases. There are ways to estimate a TOD range based on the body temp and the estimated ambient temperature and effects of coverings. IIUC, these are common issues not unique to this case.

....

Grinder,

I've done some more reading about body temperature as a method for estimating TOD.

I am coming around to the view that even if PM Mignini and Napoleoni had measured the body temperature over a period of time (hours) and the ambient temperature, the range of the estimate might have been relatively large - perhaps in the range of +/- several hours. This might have been the case even if an incision had been made to enable liver temps to be measured. (As pointed out by Chris, rectal temps should not be taken in suspected sexual attack cases before the DNA rape kit is run.)

Thus, it may be that determining body temperature was not seen as relevant, if the police or pathologist had a similarly rough estimate of TOD from other changes to the body after death (such as lividity or rigor mortis).

The best estimates of TOD in this case, as known now, are:
1. Meredith's cell phone activity
2. Meredith's walk home, parting time with her friend, appearance on CCTV
3. Digestion (stomach contents had not emptied)
4. Rudy Guede's statement

 

[Chris_Halkides]

FBI and collection of stains; thoughts on the clasp

In the 9th edition of his textbook Criminalistics, Richard Saferstein presents the FBI guidelines for collecting evidence in the form of bullet points. There are some guidelines with respect to wet bloodstained objects that should have been used with respect to the towels. Here are condensed versions of what the guidelines are with respect to semen stains:
"Submit small suspected dry semen-stains to the Laboratory...Pack in clean paper....
"When possible cut a large sample of suspected semen stains from immovable objects with a clean, sharp instrument. Collect an unstained control sample...
"Absorb suspected dried semen stains on immovable objects onto a clean cotton cloth or swab moistened with distilled water. Leave a portion of the cloth or swab unstained as a control. Air-dry the swab or cloth..."

I have always been puzzled about the storage of the clasp. On the one hand, it is difficult not to conclude that it was deliberately stored in a way that would virtually ensure its decay. On the other hand, I don't see how one might have been able to determine incompetence or malfeasance by reexamination of a hypothetically properly stored clasp. Suppose that one had swabbed it for DNA and come up empty. The previous workers could claim that they they had already extracted all of the DNA that there was. Finding even additional profiles could be handwaved away, just as the extra profiles that are already known are handwaved away in pro-guilt arguments. In other words, if it were tampered with at the time of storage, it probably was not done by someone with much knowledge of forensics.

 

[Grinder]

This is odd logic. You take body temp to determine TOD. At the time the body was discovered it was possible she was dead for no more than an hour or two. At some point body temperature doesn't help, but you don't know whether you are facing that situation until you take it.

Odd is it. Since she had to be dead at least 4 hours by the time the coroner arrived, I'm pretty sure the CSI (if they were the ones that delayed) could tell by the state of the body that she had been dead for quite some time.

Once the contracting of all the body's muscles has taken place this state of Rigor - technically referred to as the Rigid Stage - normally lasts anything from eight to twelve hours after which time the body is completely stiff; this fixed state lasts for up to another eighteen hours.​

I'd say rigor was in full force by the time she was discovered.

 

[Grinder]

I think the point the lab savvy posters here have been making, as well the independent experts in the real world, is that Stef wasn't "finding DNA profiles" in the sense of getting reliable results. Rather she was essentially manufacturing a result and then trying to palm it off as legitimate. Something she could only do by hiding the underlying lab data that tracked how she obtained those results and the presence or absence of contamination.

Diocletus, Chris, Planigale, or Numbers could probably be more articulate here.

Didn't know Numbers was a DNA expert.

And yes, Mignini needed to solve the case because foreign students were fleeing Perugia, and taking a fair share of the local economy with them, under the glare of an international media circus. Plus Mignini himself had just been indicted for abuse of office, having claimed Mario Spezi was part of a satanic sect that had been responsible for the Monster of Florence serial killings, and whose purpose was to obtain the female sex organs from those sex mutilation murders for use in 'sacrificial rites'.

Mostly hokum. Do you have any data on "foreign students were fleeing Perugia"? Was this the day of the murder? He wasn't indicted for claiming Spezi was something, but rather wiretapping journalists and police IIRC.

 

[Numbers]

Didn't know Numbers was a DNA expert.



Mostly hokum. Do you have any data on "foreign students were fleeing Perugia"? Was this the day of the murder? He wasn't indicted for claiming Spezi was something, but rather wiretapping journalists and police IIRC.

I am a beginner with respect to knowledge about DNA forensics.

 

[Grinder]

Grinder,

I've done some more reading about body temperature as a method for estimating TOD.

I am coming around to the view that even if PM Mignini and Napoleoni had measured the body temperature over a period of time (hours) and the ambient temperature, the range of the estimate might have been relatively large - perhaps in the range of +/- several hours. This might have been the case even if an incision had been made to enable liver temps to be measured. (As pointed out by Chris, rectal temps should not be taken in suspected sexual attack cases before the DNA rape kit is run.)

Thus, it may be that determining body temperature was not seen as relevant, if the police or pathologist had a similarly rough estimate of TOD from other changes to the body after death (such as lividity or rigor mortis).

The best estimates of TOD in this case, as known now, are:
1. Meredith's cell phone activity
2. Meredith's walk home, parting time with her friend, appearance on CCTV
3. Digestion (stomach contents had not emptied)
4. Rudy Guede's statement

What was that line at the end of Casablanca?

I sincerely appreciate your efforts and the ability to see another angle.

 

[Desert Fox]

Katy, you are onto something here. To some of us, dancing after the murder of Kercher was extreme behavior. Dancing was apparently a very common activity of Rudi's. It may have been normal. He may have found it soothing. He may have found it calming. If he felt socially isolated or awkward, dancing may have been a comfortable way for him to be with others and interact without having to engage.

They are plenty of cases where people are convicted due to activity after a terrible crime. Cameron Todd Willingham is a classic example of that. David Camm was convicted initially based on the fact he was a womanizer as well.

 

[anglolawyer]

This is a question that has been bugging me.

The prosecution has the burden of proof for proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

Rudy says he was on a date. I doubt it. But whose burden of proof is it?

Rudy says some other dude did it. Whose burden of proof?

Does the burden of proof shift to the defendant once a "case has been made"?

I'm thinking of the case of the one armed man and Dr Sheppard, the basis of the TV show and films "The Fugitive".

I'd have voted guilty. But the fact that Rudy is willing to lie about what happened is nonetheless unsettling.

If you can't vote guilty for Rudy in this case, there may as well not be trials at all. Still...

In an English criminal case the burden of proof never shifts from the crown at any point*, theoretically anyway. Even if the defendant offers no rebuttal, the jury can still acquit. Applying English principles, rhere is no burden on Rudy to prove he was on a date. It's simply something he raised which the prosecution must rebut by showing with evidence and/or argument that it isn't true. The underlying issue in this example is that the defendant has offered an explanation of the evidence that is consistent with his innocence such as to raise a reasonable doubt. The prosecution must exclude it, one way or another.

Italy is probably different although, once you have a system in which guilt must be proved beyond reasonable doubt, the principles distilled by the common law would seem to follow.

* ETA except in some limited, special cases where the burden is on the defendant.

 

[Antony]

The three perps psyching each other out.

What "three perps"? The evidence and the majority of experts testifying indicate a single perpetrator.

Hence, perp A leaving perp B's footprint on the bath mat. Perp A telling police about blood on the back of perp B's hand. Perp B telling police perp A made him lie, and she was not with him all evening. Perp A cryptically referring to perp B's "mask of the assassin".

Note the switch from guilter speculation about the origin of the bathmat print, to Amanda and Raff's known statements. From time to time, you stray from feigned scepticism to defamation of officially exonerated people.