Desert Fox
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Continuation Part 15: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito
- Thread starter carbonjam72
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You missed the point, that CJ left out, Mignini was there too. This was a very important discussion. For example these types of interviews are recorded and transcribed in America.
I can definitely cite for convenience the "confession" of Jessie Misskelley
http://callahan.8k.com/wm3/jmfeb.html
I think everyone on this thread would be intrigued if this sort of transcript was available for that Guede Mignini Biscotti session.
Chris_Halkides
Penultimate Amazing
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how did Raf's diary get leaked?
So when Raffaele handed his diary to his lawyer and the police confiscated it (and probably leaked from it), that was wrong?
Vixen,
So when Raffaele handed his diary to his lawyer and the police confiscated it (and probably leaked from it), that was wrong?
Chris_Halkides
Penultimate Amazing
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Dr. Gilder's thesis deals with the rates of DNA degradation
I already did five years ago in these threads, when you were just a pup. And it is "Dr. Gilder" to you.
Vixen,
I already did five years ago in these threads, when you were just a pup. And it is "Dr. Gilder" to you.
Kauffer
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Here's some help for you - Stop citing old newspaper reports for facts in this case or even for any kind of evidence without first checking if some bona fide up to date source doesn't have the information.
There's really not much you've put up here that's true. You've either made it up (or someone's else has made it up for you) or you've got it from a source which has been superseded.
Kauffer
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I just think it's pretty noteworthy that Mignini actually managed to interview a suspect in this case with his lawyer present. It's not something he'd be used to.
Dan O.
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Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
Impulsive versus Predatory Murderers
I read an interesting report on criminal psychology by Robert Hanlon, Brook & Stratton, Northwestern Feinberg Medical, Uni Chicago wherein Hanlon studied inmates incarcerated for homicide. He divided them into two groups, Impulsive/Spontaneous murderers and Predatory (Premeditators) murderers. (Abstract, below.)
There were significant differences between the groups. The former were in 93% of cases intoxicated with alcohol or drugs when they murdered, and had lower IQ's.
The latter group were more likely to have affective disorders (psychiatric illnesses) and had a higher IQ. They were less likely to be drunk or stoned.
MY VIEW
Given, we have a crime scene. A particularly heinous murder, with one of the knife stabs to the throat being precisely inserted three times, which led to police investigating Halal butchers in the area.
There is a staged burglary IMHO.
There is a staged rape IMV.
The police agreed with the above.
In other words, the motive is not theft. It is not rape.
So, we know Rudy was there, and we can suggest he was an impulsive murderer, with anti-social behaviour disorder. He was on drugs, hadn't planned on the murder, not particularly bright, didn't clean up, or show any strategy.
As you are aware, my belief is it was premeditated, directly connected to the Halloween events (or in perp A's case, non-event) of the night before. I believe Mez snubbing perp A triggered painful childhood memories, causing rage and hatred towards Mez, plus perp A was progressively out of control re sex and drugs. IMV.
Perp A and lover, perp B, seeing Mez' vampire blood make up on her chin, triggered the pair bitching about her, perp A hating her popularity and triggered perp B's manga fantasy of being a vampire slayer. IMV.
One perp was a predatory murderer with sociopathic tendencies, as manifested in reckless drugs, sex and keeping bad company. The other perp was also a predatory murderer, with an affective disorder, perhaps even mildly psychotic when in a drugged state, especially as a cocaine and acid user. IMV.
During the day the predators fantasised about vampire slaying after Mez left for the afternoon to socialise with her English friends.
The impulsive murderer was owed money for drugs by the other perps, and was bored. Rudy waited outside the cottage - and as seen on cctv several times - and followed in perp A, or else was let in by Mez between 8:45 to 9:10 pm. Perp A now had a free evening and went to fetch perp B, five minute's walk away. They had food left over from the afternoon and maybe had brought a kitchen knife, still at the cottage.
Perp A and B decided it would be a laugh to haze "the vampire", so they switched off their phones, perhaps brought their Halloween masks, Perp B's was a manga one, perp A's, a cat. Put on an anodyne movie Amelie, as strategy, and set off.
At the cottage Rudy supplied drugs and demanded money for them. Mez in the meantime had pinched a mushroom, which police found had come from a punnet in Raf's aptmt.
Enjoying a druggie high, with perps A and B having sex next door, the perps set about bullying Mez for money, using Mez' annoyance as an excuse to escalate the violence and urging Rudy to get off with Mez, perhaps.
As planned, Mez was teased and tortured by the perps, with their knives, and perhaps, naked, wearing masks, even, and forced into a corner by the wardrobe. Perps A and B were getting sadistic pleasure out of Mez' pain and distress. Rudy just wanted sexual gratification. The murder was probably a surprise to him and he fled to Germany shortly after.
Perps A and B, having planned the fantasy murder, now calculated they needed to remove all traces of themselves.
They had the bright idea of staging a burglary - very common - and thought leaving Rudy's faeces unflushed would pin the murder on him.
The body was carefully repositioned and undressed. Police believed objects were rearranged. Mez' coat may have had the sleeves turned inside out, whilst her jeans were straightened.
Police found the washing machine just finishing when they arrived, even though Mez had been dead circa thirteen hours by then.
Stylised murders tend to have symbolism, for example, predatory Scream murderers Draper and Adamcik wore Scream masks and made a film with a Blairwitch-type script.
The symbolism here are the three finger marks in blood on the wall
I believe it's a manga mark.
So, Rudy in relation to the other perps was the impulsive patsy murderer.
FWIW.
-------
Source:
Neuropsychological and Intellectual Differences Between Types of Murderers
Affective/Impulsive Versus Predatory/ Instrumental (Premeditated) Homicide
Authors
Robert E. Hanlon
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
Neuropsychological Associates of Chicago
Michael Brook
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
John Stratton
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
Marie Jensen
DePaul University
Leah H. Rubin
University of Illinois at Chicago
Robert E. Hanlon, PhD, Neuropsychological Associates of Chicago, 645 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 803, Chicago, IL 60611, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
Abstract
The notion that affective/impulsive violence and predatory/instrumental violence constitute distinct behavioral phenotypes has been supported in the forensic literature. Prior research suggests that offenders committing affective/impulsive homicide exhibit differing patterns of anomalous regional brain activation and decreased executive functions relative to predatory/instrumental homicide offenders. However, no prior research has examined the extent to which murderers who kill impulsively versus those who kill as the result of the execution of a premeditated strategic plan differ with regard to other neuropsychological functions and intelligence. Based on established criteria, we classified 77 murderers into affective/impulsive and predatory/instrumental groups, and compared their performance on standardized measures of intelligence and neuropsychological functioning. Results revealed significant differences between the affective/impulsive group (mean Full Scale IQ = 79) and the predatory/instrumental group (mean Full Scale IQ = 93) on indices of intelligence, memory, attention, and executive functioning. Most differences remained significant after controlling for relevant background factors.
homicide murder neuropsychology intelligence premeditated violence
© 2013 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology
Published online before print May 2, 2013, doi: 10.1177/0093854813479779 Criminal Justice and Behavior August 2013 vol. 40 no. 8 933-948
I read an interesting report on criminal psychology by Robert Hanlon, Brook & Stratton, Northwestern Feinberg Medical, Uni Chicago wherein Hanlon studied inmates incarcerated for homicide. He divided them into two groups, Impulsive/Spontaneous murderers and Predatory (Premeditators) murderers. (Abstract, below.)
There were significant differences between the groups. The former were in 93% of cases intoxicated with alcohol or drugs when they murdered, and had lower IQ's.
The latter group were more likely to have affective disorders (psychiatric illnesses) and had a higher IQ. They were less likely to be drunk or stoned.
MY VIEW
Given, we have a crime scene. A particularly heinous murder, with one of the knife stabs to the throat being precisely inserted three times, which led to police investigating Halal butchers in the area.
There is a staged burglary IMHO.
There is a staged rape IMV.
The police agreed with the above.
In other words, the motive is not theft. It is not rape.
So, we know Rudy was there, and we can suggest he was an impulsive murderer, with anti-social behaviour disorder. He was on drugs, hadn't planned on the murder, not particularly bright, didn't clean up, or show any strategy.
As you are aware, my belief is it was premeditated, directly connected to the Halloween events (or in perp A's case, non-event) of the night before. I believe Mez snubbing perp A triggered painful childhood memories, causing rage and hatred towards Mez, plus perp A was progressively out of control re sex and drugs. IMV.
Perp A and lover, perp B, seeing Mez' vampire blood make up on her chin, triggered the pair bitching about her, perp A hating her popularity and triggered perp B's manga fantasy of being a vampire slayer. IMV.
One perp was a predatory murderer with sociopathic tendencies, as manifested in reckless drugs, sex and keeping bad company. The other perp was also a predatory murderer, with an affective disorder, perhaps even mildly psychotic when in a drugged state, especially as a cocaine and acid user. IMV.
During the day the predators fantasised about vampire slaying after Mez left for the afternoon to socialise with her English friends.
The impulsive murderer was owed money for drugs by the other perps, and was bored. Rudy waited outside the cottage - and as seen on cctv several times - and followed in perp A, or else was let in by Mez between 8:45 to 9:10 pm. Perp A now had a free evening and went to fetch perp B, five minute's walk away. They had food left over from the afternoon and maybe had brought a kitchen knife, still at the cottage.
Perp A and B decided it would be a laugh to haze "the vampire", so they switched off their phones, perhaps brought their Halloween masks, Perp B's was a manga one, perp A's, a cat. Put on an anodyne movie Amelie, as strategy, and set off.
At the cottage Rudy supplied drugs and demanded money for them. Mez in the meantime had pinched a mushroom, which police found had come from a punnet in Raf's aptmt.
Enjoying a druggie high, with perps A and B having sex next door, the perps set about bullying Mez for money, using Mez' annoyance as an excuse to escalate the violence and urging Rudy to get off with Mez, perhaps.
As planned, Mez was teased and tortured by the perps, with their knives, and perhaps, naked, wearing masks, even, and forced into a corner by the wardrobe. Perps A and B were getting sadistic pleasure out of Mez' pain and distress. Rudy just wanted sexual gratification. The murder was probably a surprise to him and he fled to Germany shortly after.
Perps A and B, having planned the fantasy murder, now calculated they needed to remove all traces of themselves.
They had the bright idea of staging a burglary - very common - and thought leaving Rudy's faeces unflushed would pin the murder on him.
The body was carefully repositioned and undressed. Police believed objects were rearranged. Mez' coat may have had the sleeves turned inside out, whilst her jeans were straightened.
Police found the washing machine just finishing when they arrived, even though Mez had been dead circa thirteen hours by then.
Stylised murders tend to have symbolism, for example, predatory Scream murderers Draper and Adamcik wore Scream masks and made a film with a Blairwitch-type script.
The symbolism here are the three finger marks in blood on the wall
I believe it's a manga mark.
So, Rudy in relation to the other perps was the impulsive patsy murderer.
FWIW.
-------
Source:
Neuropsychological and Intellectual Differences Between Types of Murderers
Affective/Impulsive Versus Predatory/ Instrumental (Premeditated) Homicide
Authors
Robert E. Hanlon
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
Neuropsychological Associates of Chicago
Michael Brook
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
John Stratton
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
Marie Jensen
DePaul University
Leah H. Rubin
University of Illinois at Chicago
Robert E. Hanlon, PhD, Neuropsychological Associates of Chicago, 645 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 803, Chicago, IL 60611, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
Abstract
The notion that affective/impulsive violence and predatory/instrumental violence constitute distinct behavioral phenotypes has been supported in the forensic literature. Prior research suggests that offenders committing affective/impulsive homicide exhibit differing patterns of anomalous regional brain activation and decreased executive functions relative to predatory/instrumental homicide offenders. However, no prior research has examined the extent to which murderers who kill impulsively versus those who kill as the result of the execution of a premeditated strategic plan differ with regard to other neuropsychological functions and intelligence. Based on established criteria, we classified 77 murderers into affective/impulsive and predatory/instrumental groups, and compared their performance on standardized measures of intelligence and neuropsychological functioning. Results revealed significant differences between the affective/impulsive group (mean Full Scale IQ = 79) and the predatory/instrumental group (mean Full Scale IQ = 93) on indices of intelligence, memory, attention, and executive functioning. Most differences remained significant after controlling for relevant background factors.
homicide murder neuropsychology intelligence premeditated violence
© 2013 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology
Published online before print May 2, 2013, doi: 10.1177/0093854813479779 Criminal Justice and Behavior August 2013 vol. 40 no. 8 933-948
Desert Fox
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Simplest is simpler and therefore best per Occam's Razor
Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor and in Latin lex parsimoniae, which means 'law of parsimony') is a problem-solving principle devised by William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), who was an English Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher and theologian. The principle states that among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove to provide better predictions, but—in the absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
They should have got a warrant from a magistrate.
Desert Fox
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Or how about releasing to the press confidential medical information about Amanda to make her look like a slut?
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
Amanda published all that information herself in her book, which I believe could repudiate any claim of breach of confidentiality.
I agree whoever breached it should be disciplined and/or face criminal charges.
This is pretty much what site administrator from PMF.net, Michael has written. I don't know how to do spoilers, so here it is:
"Just a thought out loud. As regular readers here will know, over the past year or so I have changed my mind about the murder from originally considering it to be a nasty prank/hazing gone wrong or gotten out of control, to premeditated murder. At least by Knox, and I felt "probably" also by Sollecito. I did not believe this was the case with Rudy and that remains the same. I have however, adjusted my view to now be certain in my own mind, that it was was also premeditated for Sollecito.
As some have may recall, I believe Rudy was only present at the start of the attack and for the sexual assault but was not present the whole way through. For a range of reasons, I adopted the theory that shortly after the sexual assault, which I think was mercifully brief (although, of course, still terrible for the victim just the same) and not carried out with any enthusiasm by Rudy, realising that this wasn't what he'd signed on for, wanted out and left Meredith's room to take up temporary residence in the large bathroom over the other side of the cottage. This transfer would have taken place before any blood was spilled. It was then some minutes later that Rudy was alerted by the scream, rnb from the bathroom to Meredith's room to be confronted by carnage.
I still hold to this theory. But, one element of it I am now questioning in light of my post a two posts upthread were certain pieces of the puzzle slotted into place for me. The element I am now questioning, is whether Rudy unilaterally removed himself from the room to the bathroom. I am now wondering, if he was actually instead sent by Knox and Knife Boy. I am asking this, as I feel Rudy was recruited to play a certain role and that was to help initiate the attack to subdue the victim and to then carry out a sexual assault (although, I feel the others wanted Rudy to go further then he did). Once that had happened, his job was done, he was no longer needed as the rest the other two could do themselves. Nor do I think was he was even wanted. He was not part of the pact and so at best, he would have been intruding on their final act. At worst, he could potentially have interfered or even tried to stop them, as he had not been told this was intended to be a murder. Moreover, Knox and Sollecito could feel safe in sending him elsewhere in the cottage and carry out their murder confident that Guede wouldn't later be volunteering information to the police, as they had made him take part in enough of the attack to ensure that under the strict definition of the law, he would be regarded as being as guilty as they (and there is no plea bargaining in the Italian system for felonies and capital crimes). It may still actually be the case that Rudy left the room unilaterally, but in that event, I feel that if he hadn't of done so of his own accord he would have been dismissed. He was never given a knife, as they never intended for him to be present or active in the final act.
There was one serious way the pair, who were in full control of the situation from the start of the attack right up to the murder itself, made a fatal error shortly after that would have ensured that eventually, they would be caught. I've never seen this discussed before now. This fatal error, was their failure to control Rudy in the immediate aftermath of the murder. Rudy attempted to help Meredith and in so doing, he got blood on his hands which he then transferred in the form of his fingerprints and DNA to the outside of Meredith's handbag while moving it and his bloody hand print with his fingerprints onto the pillow. In addition, his bloody shoe prints in the hall which while they specifically would not have the potential to lead to Knox and Sollecito being caught, they would provide important details about the context and narrative of the crime, which once they were caught, would contribute to convicting them. You see, the key evidence left at this point, was the DNA and fingerpints. Had Knox and Sollecito done a better job with their lies and alibis and so were not arrested on the 5th Nov, they still would have been doomed. All that was required was for either Guede's DNA or his fingerprints to be on file (it turned out, his fingerprints were indeed registered with his identity card application) then that would have directly led to Rudy's identification and arrest. Rudy's arrest would then have led to Knox and Sollecito's arrest, as one can bet facing the blame all alone he would have swiftly pointed the finger at them. As it turned out, this never needed to happen as Knox and Sollecito had failed to flesh out their alibis and they were arrested before Rudy. But it doesn't matter, even if they had of avoided arrest they were always doomed because they had made the mistake of allowing Guede to help Meredith and then right after, interact with items in the room leaving key evidence that would lead to his identification. This mistake, meant all their partial cleaning, staging and lies, even if dome competently enough to send the police off track, would always have eventually failed due to the presence of Rudy's fingerprints at the crime scene."
Strozzi
Graduate Poster
Vixen, thank you for the detailed analysis. I am impressed for its detail. I may have misunderstood you before.
I have a few questions:
Do you believe Amanda brought the knife from Raffaele's in her large purse?
Do you agree with comments posted on this board long ago that Rudi used or may have used Meredith's and Amanda's shared bethroom's toilet where he failed to flush and that the specimin was moved from there to Filomena's and Laura's toilet?
Possibly to shift away suspicion from A and R, or to frame Rudi?
Do you believe Amanda transported it (note the used toilet paper used for handling Rudi's specimin left in the Italian women's bathroom) as she did the knife?
I have a few questions:
Do you believe Amanda brought the knife from Raffaele's in her large purse?
Do you agree with comments posted on this board long ago that Rudi used or may have used Meredith's and Amanda's shared bethroom's toilet where he failed to flush and that the specimin was moved from there to Filomena's and Laura's toilet?
Possibly to shift away suspicion from A and R, or to frame Rudi?
Do you believe Amanda transported it (note the used toilet paper used for handling Rudi's specimin left in the Italian women's bathroom) as she did the knife?
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Desert Fox
Philosopher
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You ever heard the saying that it is too late to close the barn door when the cows are out?
The information about sexual partners was released by the Italian police department for purposes of slut shaming long before her book was written.
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
It's the first I've seen that version. The idea that Rudy was "not in on the act" is quite a common one.
I did manage to construct my theory all by myself, from absorbing everything that's been said.
Most people however, do not agree it was premeditated, preferring a "row gone wrong" theory.
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
There was a knife and some bloodied tissues found in the bushes. Police ruled out that knife, as being too blunt.
Whoever did it, was aware of the need for a sharp knife. Police believe the murder weapon came from Raf's aptmt. It was either brought along to cook lunch earlier or it was brought from the aptmt during the evening. It would make sense to put it in a bag, as it is a criminal offence to carry a knife as a weapon.
ETA Leaving the mess in the loo, was another attempt at sheer theatre.
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Either a theory like yours will become accepted by historians, or that of the latest court.
I believe in a few years, one will become mainstream. There appears to be work in progress in the United Kingdom to reach a concensus. I find the wiki articles on murder tend to suggest the conclusions that the concensus on these ISF threads does. Interestingly, the wiki articles on this case are declarative in agreeing with the recent decision.
Desert Fox
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The thing is that Rudy Guede murdering Meredeth alone does not add additional assumptions. You are not adding extra players in the mix without any consistent evidence of those extra players.
Kaosium
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Boy were you ever right, Rose.
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