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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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In continuation thread 8 I posted a couple of comments on stomach emptying and the definitions of t(lag). After rereading the articles by Chen and coworkers (2003), it seems clear that their definition of t(lag) was the time it takes for 10% of the stomach contents to move into the intestine. The paper by Hellmig and coworkers (2006) defined t(lag) as the "time of fastest gastric emptying." The latter definition is also how Siegel and coworkers (1988) used the term.

I cannot see a reason why the two definitions should produce identical times, but I decided to look into it further. I used the numbers for beta (1.54) and k (0.0142) that Siegel and coworkers reported. They also reported t(lag) to be 31.2 minutes. My math skills are a bit rusty, but here is what I found: At 31.2 minutes the fraction of food remaining in the stomach was about 0.794 (79.4%) and the fraction of food that had been emptied was 1 - 0.794 = 0.206, or 20.6% if you prefer. I then calculated how much time would elapse to reach only 10% of complete emptying of the stomach, and I found that this was 17.9 minutes. In other words, the time period for 10% emptying was significantly shorter than the time at which the rate of emptying was maximal. It would be nice to be able to do the same calculations for the paper authored by Chen and coworkers and the paper authored by Hellmig and coworkers; however, I could not find where either group had reported the values of beta and k. The longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Chen (about 118 minutes) was significantly shorter than the longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Hellmig (200 minutes, with the second longest being 170 minutes). One reason for this difference might be the fact that the two groups used different definitions of "t(lag)," although other possible explanations could be put forward.

As I see it, the Massei/Mignini TOD is flatly ruled out by the empty duodenum. In addition, other independent lines of evidence put the TOD earlier than 10 PM. This may not be proof that AK and RS are innocent (it depends on what evidence one accepts with respect to their electronic alibi), but it certainly is proof of the extreme unlikelihood of their involvement. MOO.

Yes.

As I understand the PGP argument on this matter, it boils down to "there is a lot of variation" and "digestion is slowed by trauma" and "she didn't get to her laundry or call her mum or even take off her jacket because she didn't feel like it."

I think one of the reasons they refuse to construct a timed narrative of the crime that accounts for all the available evidence is that they know how weak this part of the case is & prefer not to look at it closely.

I'd like to be proved wrong. Maybe Supercal could help out? What time did MK die? What happened between her arrival at the cottage at 9 pm and that moment?
 
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In continuation thread 8 I posted a couple of comments on stomach emptying and the definitions of t(lag). After rereading the articles by Chen and coworkers (2003), it seems clear that their definition of t(lag) was the time it takes for 10% of the stomach contents to move into the intestine. The paper by Hellmig and coworkers (2006) defined t(lag) as the "time of fastest gastric emptying." The latter definition is also how Siegel and coworkers (1988) used the term.

I cannot see a reason why the two definitions should produce identical times, but I decided to look into it further. I used the numbers for beta (1.54) and k (0.0142) that Siegel and coworkers reported. They also reported t(lag) to be 31.2 minutes. My math skills are a bit rusty, but here is what I found: At 31.2 minutes the fraction of food remaining in the stomach was about 0.794 (79.4%) and the fraction of food that had been emptied was 1 - 0.794 = 0.206, or 20.6% if you prefer. I then calculated how much time would elapse to reach only 10% of complete emptying of the stomach, and I found that this was 17.9 minutes. In other words, the time period for 10% emptying was significantly shorter than the time at which the rate of emptying was maximal. It would be nice to be able to do the same calculations for the paper authored by Chen and coworkers and the paper authored by Hellmig and coworkers; however, I could not find where either group had reported the values of beta and k. The longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Chen (about 118 minutes) was significantly shorter than the longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Hellmig (200 minutes, with the second longest being 170 minutes). One reason for this difference might be the fact that the two groups used different definitions of "t(lag)," although other possible explanations could be put forward.

As I see it, the Massei/Mignini TOD is flatly ruled out by the empty duodenum. In addition, other independent lines of evidence put the TOD earlier than 10 PM. This may not be proof that AK and RS are innocent (it depends on what evidence one accepts with respect to their electronic alibi), but it certainly is proof of the extreme unlikelihood of their involvement. MOO.


This is very interesting, thanks Chris. Does anyone know whether Amanda and Raffaele's lawyers pushed the gastric evidence in their defence and appeals? If not, why not?
 
This is a brilliant article and it needs to be read by all those posting here.

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/the-media-and-the-amanda-knox-case/764282/

Selene Nelson’s essay is based on false premises and distortions about the evidence and the facts of the case. She uses subjective sources (e.g., Barbie Nadeau) and commentary long after the fact (e.g., Seattle Business Journal) to bolster her claim that Gogerty Marriott built an image of Amanda Knox in the American mass media. She says that the news coming into the US from Perugia was “meticulously sieved free of any negativity.” Nelson cannot support these claims, though. She was not paying attention during the first few years of the case.

Until the decision at the end of the first trial in December 2009, the case received very little coverage at all in the United States mass media, and when it was covered, the written reports were primarily reprints of articles by British journalists based on information they got from Italian journalists. The subject matter was mainly about the charges against the defendants and the progress of the legal process. Ironically, the only American journalists Nadeau cites in the article upon which much of Nelson’s essay is based are Nadeau herself and Andrea Vogt, neither of whom can be credited with writing many positive things about Amanda in the American media. Where, then, are Nelson’s cited examples of how Marriott got “Americans on board with the case?”

If any newspaper had reason to cover the case, it would have been the Seattle Times, the leading newspaper in Amanda’s hometown (the case received virtually no coverage at all in the first two years in larger papers like the New York Times and the Washington Post). Yet, until the end of the first trial in December 2009, coverage of the case in the Seattle Times was less than half what it would be following the first and second trials. Only then did the case first come, arguably, to mainstream attention. This JREF thread, for example, was not started until Knox had already been in prison for two+ years and was convicted of the crimes (media coverage of criminal convictions can hardly be called "free of negativity").

Seattle Times articles or items mentioning the name Amanda Knox:

November 2, 2007 – November 1, 2008 - 67
November 2, 2008 – November 1, 2009 - 74
November 2, 2009 – November 1, 2010 - 137
November 2, 2010 – November 1, 2011 – 272 (105, or 37%, of which appeared between October 2, 2011 [date of acquittal] and November 1, 2011)
November 2, 2011 – November 1, 2012 - 53
November 2, 2012 – November 1, 2013 - 91
November 2, 2013 – September 24, 2014 – 48


Nelson needs more than other people’s years-old claims, opinions and hearsay about how the American mass media manipulated Knox’s image. She needs to provide a substantial number of examples from the American mass media (not internet forums) of unbalanced reports biased in Knox’s favor. She will not succeed.

Nelson’s analysis of the situation surrounding Rudy Guede fails as well. She writes, “All the more important it is, then, to highlight the way the relaying of information and evidence is controlled, distorted, manipulated and even omitted for the gain of the suspects and not the victim.” If this is the theme of her essay, then she needs to take her own, earlier, advice and “apply the same logic to all three defendants.”

Nelson describes one of the mass media’s “set of ludicrous, prescribed guidelines” working against Guede as (7.) “Conduct countless interviews with the friends and families of the two white people. Ensure you never speak with the friends or relatives of the black man.” Earlier in her essay, she quotes Guede himself as having written, “I had a beautiful family and precious squeaky clean and friendly relations in Perugia.”

Does Nelson truly believe journalists would turn up their noses at chances to interview Guede’s family and friends? She should instead be wondering where Guede’s beautiful family has been, and why none of his squeaky clean relations came forward to defend him in the press the way Knox’s did, if only for personal gain. After all, according the cited article by Barbie Nadeau, “[allegedly].....all sorts of people tried to make a buck off the murder. Amanda’s classmates in both Perugia and Seattle asked for cash or plane tickets in exchange for interviews. One of her teachers in Italy offered a TV producer Amanda’s handwritten letter—for 10,000 euros. Tidbits from the legal dossier were shopped around.” Is it possible there were no rewards to be found, for informants or journalists, by getting in on the same types of scoops about the actual murderer?

Nelson, in her shallow understanding of the mechanics of the case, probably does not know that the beautiful family about which Guede wrote is also the wealthiest family in Perugia, who are also without any doubt personally-connected friends of the local magistrates and perhaps even of the organized crime bosses who provide the product and the pushers for Umbria’s massive illegal (mostly unprosecuted) drug trade. She may not even know how most residents of Perugia were and are loath to comment on any move the police, prosecutors or judges made when it came to this case, solely out of fear of reprisals.

Maybe Nelson thinks Perugia is such a backwater compared to the US that it would not occur to the media there to distort, manipulate and even omit information for their readers. Ha.

Study the case, Selene, and come back later.
 
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In continuation thread 8 I posted a couple of comments on stomach emptying and the definitions of t(lag). After rereading the articles by Chen and coworkers (2003), it seems clear that their definition of t(lag) was the time it takes for 10% of the stomach contents to move into the intestine. The paper by Hellmig and coworkers (2006) defined t(lag) as the "time of fastest gastric emptying." The latter definition is also how Siegel and coworkers (1988) used the term.

I cannot see a reason why the two definitions should produce identical times, but I decided to look into it further. I used the numbers for beta (1.54) and k (0.0142) that Siegel and coworkers reported. They also reported t(lag) to be 31.2 minutes. My math skills are a bit rusty, but here is what I found: At 31.2 minutes the fraction of food remaining in the stomach was about 0.794 (79.4%) and the fraction of food that had been emptied was 1 - 0.794 = 0.206, or 20.6% if you prefer. I then calculated how much time would elapse to reach only 10% of complete emptying of the stomach, and I found that this was 17.9 minutes. In other words, the time period for 10% emptying was significantly shorter than the time at which the rate of emptying was maximal. It would be nice to be able to do the same calculations for the paper authored by Chen and coworkers and the paper authored by Hellmig and coworkers; however, I could not find where either group had reported the values of beta and k. The longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Chen (about 118 minutes) was significantly shorter than the longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Hellmig (200 minutes, with the second longest being 170 minutes). One reason for this difference might be the fact that the two groups used different definitions of "t(lag)," although other possible explanations could be put forward.

As I see it, the Massei/Mignini TOD is flatly ruled out by the empty duodenum. In addition, other independent lines of evidence put the TOD earlier than 10 PM. This may not be proof that AK and RS are innocent (it depends on what evidence one accepts with respect to their electronic alibi), but it certainly is proof of the extreme unlikelihood of their involvement. MOO.

Chris, the Mercy Hospital study is two hours of photo graphing. Nil transition defaults to serious medical problems. This is statistically impossible for Meredith. The latest citation for food ingestion is 7 30 for desert. There is no chance she was alive at 9 30, and Nencini accords an alibi to Raffaele.
I am not sure why this confusion extends. but t/lag is not a useful term, it is simply impossible for her to be alive long after 9pm, with court documents supporting her dinner time.

ETA Nencini rounded it down to 9 20. This is ok by italian standards.

Also, this is the SMOKING GUN for innocence, take note John Kerry IMOO
 
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I find this exerpt from Natalie Hayward inciteful.

She was clearly a powerful person," said Miss Hayward. "She talked about herself a lot. She talked about her friends as though they couldn't live without her. She was very different to Meredith. She was used to being the centre of attention."

I see no reason to detach this from the public record Amanda would not expect to have become public.
 
This is a brilliant article and it needs to be read by all those posting here.

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/the-media-and-the-amanda-knox-case/764282/

It sounds like she has the hots for Guede :eye-poppi - is this Selene lady one of those crazy women that fall in love with rapist/murderers?

Rudy Guede's DNA was found in Meredith Kercher's vagina and she's practically salivating for him - it really is sickening. However, I guess you guys will invite her along to the PMF award ceremony, when Guede will win your Man of The Year award.
 
Mercy Hospital study

Chris, the Mercy Hospital study is two hours of photo graphing. Nil transition defaults to serious medical problems. This is statistically impossible for Meredith. The latest citation for food ingestion is 7 30 for desert. There is no chance she was alive at 9 30, and Nencini accords an alibi to Raffaele.
Samson,

Do you have a link handy for the Mercy Hospital study? I am trying to gather up information on this subject.
EDT
I think that this is a link to a Q and A about the test. It was posted in the continuation, part 8.
 
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Samson,

Do you have a link handy for the Mercy Hospital study? I am trying to gather up information on this subject.
EDT
I think that this is a link to a Q and A about the test. It was posted in the continuation, part 8.

Yes this is the link, and this text is paramount

You will be given scrambled eggs, milk and two slices of bread to eat. The eggs have been treated with a radioactive tracer. Like getting an X-ray, you can’t see it, you can’t taste it and it will not effect you. After you eat the eggs, we will proceed to take images with our gamma camera. We will take one image every 15 minutes, for 2 hours. The entire test takes about 2.5 hours.

There are many studies, but this is the only one that specifies 2 hours as SUFFICIENT to diagnose something. Therefore I cite this study to prove there can be an inference derived from a 120 minute elapsed time to (waste the patient's money to discover nothing).
I have debated on line to no effect people saying I do not understand t lag, so I cite this study. Needless to say no surrender is achieved.
My question remains.
An expensive procedure is pointless without a determinative result. Hypothetically, Meredith's gastric emptying had not commenced, (7 30 to 9 30), therefore she was dead or suffering from, say, gastroparesis, which is statiscally implausible, and as well she was declared by all autopsies and judges as supremely healthy, ironically not least in her declared strength to combat successfully one attacker.
 
From Natalie Hayward

Meredith was the only one who was totally non-judgmental. That was wonderful because I was feeling lonely

This suggests that Amanda's experiences with Meredith would be unlikely to result in the prosecutor's narrative.
 
From Natalie Hayward

Meredith was the only one who was totally non-judgmental. That was wonderful because I was feeling lonely

This suggests that Amanda's experiences with Meredith would be unlikely to result in the prosecutor's narrative.

You just discovered that Deepak Chopra is right. . . . People can really exist in a quantum state :D
 
I find this exerpt from Natalie Hayward inciteful.

She was clearly a powerful person," said Miss Hayward. "She talked about herself a lot. She talked about her friends as though they couldn't live without her. She was very different to Meredith. She was used to being the centre of attention."

I see no reason to detach this from the public record Amanda would not expect to have become public.

I always find this type of testimony such a waste of time. Its like Edgardo Giobbi type stuff where they summarize someone in a 10 minute or less, meeting with a person. IN 10 seconds or a look at a picture they can summarize everything about a person.

How many minutes did Natalie hang out with Amanda?
She seems to know her entire life already.

I recall being in a courtroom once and doctor was called in for a witness and he made broad statements about the health of the person, and then went down in flames when asked "how many sessions did you have with this person to determine the mental health?"

the witness/Dr. said "one session, "
and then asked "how long was the session?"
the witness/Dr. response was "about 30 minutes."

So the old English girls stories, the Guiltards love it all as if it was the Witch Trials of Salem.
 
Selene Nelson’s essay is based on false premises and distortions about the evidence and the facts of the case. She uses subjective sources (e.g., Barbie Nadeau) and commentary long after the fact (e.g., Seattle Business Journal) to bolster her claim that Gogerty Marriott built an image of Amanda Knox in the American mass media. She says that the news coming into the US from Perugia was “meticulously sieved free of any negativity.” Nelson cannot support these claims, though. She was not paying attention during the first few years of the case.

Until the decision at the end of the first trial in December 2009, the case received very little coverage at all in the United States mass media, and when it was covered, the written reports were primarily reprints of articles by British journalists based on information they got from Italian journalists. The subject matter was mainly about the charges against the defendants and the progress of the legal process. Ironically, the only American journalists Nadeau cites in the article upon which much of Nelson’s essay is based are Nadeau herself and Andrea Vogt, neither of whom can be credited with writing many positive things about Amanda in the American media. Where, then, are Nelson’s cited examples of how Marriott got “Americans on board with the case?”

If any newspaper had reason to cover the case, it would have been the Seattle Times, the leading newspaper in Amanda’s hometown (the case received virtually no coverage at all in the first two years in larger papers like the New York Times and the Washington Post). Yet, until the end of the first trial in December 2009, coverage of the case in the Seattle Times was less than half what it would be following the first and second trials. Only then did the case first come, arguably, to mainstream attention. This JREF thread, for example, was not started until Knox had already been in prison for two+ years and was convicted of the crimes (media coverage of criminal convictions can hardly be called "free of negativity").

Seattle Times articles or items mentioning the name Amanda Knox:

November 2, 2007 – November 1, 2008 - 67
November 2, 2008 – November 1, 2009 - 74
November 2, 2009 – November 1, 2010 - 137
November 2, 2010 – November 1, 2011 – 272 (105, or 37%, of which appeared between October 2, 2011 [date of acquittal] and November 1, 2011)
November 2, 2011 – November 1, 2012 - 53
November 2, 2012 – November 1, 2013 - 91
November 2, 2013 – September 24, 2014 – 48


Nelson needs more than other people’s years-old claims, opinions and hearsay about how the American mass media manipulated Knox’s image. She needs to provide a substantial number of examples from the American mass media (not internet forums) of unbalanced reports biased in Knox’s favor. She will not succeed.

Nelson’s analysis of the situation surrounding Rudy Guede fails as well. She writes, “All the more important it is, then, to highlight the way the relaying of information and evidence is controlled, distorted, manipulated and even omitted for the gain of the suspects and not the victim.” If this is the theme of her essay, then she needs to take her own, earlier, advice and “apply the same logic to all three defendants.”

Nelson describes one of the mass media’s “set of ludicrous, prescribed guidelines” working against Guede as (7.) “Conduct countless interviews with the friends and families of the two white people. Ensure you never speak with the friends or relatives of the black man.” Earlier in her essay, she quotes Guede himself as having written, “I had a beautiful family and precious squeaky clean and friendly relations in Perugia.”

Does Nelson truly believe journalists would turn up their noses at chances to interview Guede’s family and friends? She should instead be wondering where Guede’s beautiful family has been, and why none of his squeaky clean relations came forward to defend him in the press the way Knox’s did, if only for personal gain. After all, according the cited article by Barbie Nadeau, “[allegedly].....all sorts of people tried to make a buck off the murder. Amanda’s classmates in both Perugia and Seattle asked for cash or plane tickets in exchange for interviews. One of her teachers in Italy offered a TV producer Amanda’s handwritten letter—for 10,000 euros. Tidbits from the legal dossier were shopped around.” Is it possible there were no rewards to be found, for informants or journalists, by getting in on the same types of scoops about the actual murderer?

Nelson, in her shallow understanding of the mechanics of the case, probably does not know that the beautiful family about which Guede wrote is also the wealthiest family in Perugia, who are also without any doubt personally-connected friends of the local magistrates and perhaps even of the organized crime bosses who provide the product and the pushers for Umbria’s massive illegal (mostly unprosecuted) drug trade. She may not even know how most residents of Perugia were and are loath to comment on any move the police, prosecutors or judges made when it came to this case, solely out of fear of reprisals.

Maybe Nelson thinks Perugia is such a backwater compared to the US that it would not occur to the media there to distort, manipulate and even omit information for their readers. Ha.

Study the case, Selene, and come back later.

^^ Now that's a brilliant article ^^ :D
 
I find this exerpt from Natalie Hayward inciteful.

She was clearly a powerful person," said Miss Hayward. "She talked about herself a lot. She talked about her friends as though they couldn't live without her. She was very different to Meredith. She was used to being the centre of attention."

I see no reason to detach this from the public record Amanda would not expect to have become public.

I always find judgments of others whether positive or negative to be suspect. How much time did this person spend with Amanda? One time for a couple of hours? Three times for twenty minutes? Six times for an hour and a half?

Maybe she met Amanda on one of Amanda's bad days. Maybe Amanda was feeling insecure that day. Maybe Natalie was having a bad day herself and that effected her judgment. Natalie barely knew Amanda, I'm sure Natalie would even admit that.

So how can her assessment of Amanda really be valuable in any way?
 
I always find judgments of others whether positive or negative to be suspect. How much time did this person spend with Amanda? One time for a couple of hours? Three times for twenty minutes? Six times for an hour and a half?

Maybe she met Amanda on one of Amanda's bad days. Maybe Amanda was feeling insecure that day. Maybe Natalie was having a bad day herself and that effected her judgment. Natalie barely knew Amanda, I'm sure Natalie would even admit that.

So how can her assessment of Amanda really be valuable in any way?

Because she was needed to help paint the details of the entirely fictional character Mignini drew of Amanda in his head and so generously shared with the world.

In a court system where 'any knife will do', 'any tramp will do', 'any lab work will do', and 'any judicial conclusions regardless of evidence will do', Natalie as a witness fits right in.

Natalie should understand her role in the court process, and how she contributed to damaging the lives of two innocent people. Its pretty sickening if they all just get away with it.
 
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I always find judgments of others whether positive or negative to be suspect. How much time did this person spend with Amanda? One time for a couple of hours? Three times for twenty minutes? Six times for an hour and a half?

Maybe she met Amanda on one of Amanda's bad days. Maybe Amanda was feeling insecure that day. Maybe Natalie was having a bad day herself and that effected her judgment. Natalie barely knew Amanda, I'm sure Natalie would even admit that.

So how can her assessment of Amanda really be valuable in any way?

One other question is when did she state this position. If this was long after the fact, her position is likely colored by everything else she has seen or read.
 
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