In continuation thread 8 I posted a couple of comments on stomach emptying and the definitions of t(lag). After rereading the articles by Chen and coworkers (2003), it seems clear that their definition of t(lag) was the time it takes for 10% of the stomach contents to move into the intestine. The paper by Hellmig and coworkers (2006) defined t(lag) as the "time of fastest gastric emptying." The latter definition is also how Siegel and coworkers (1988) used the term.
I cannot see a reason why the two definitions should produce identical times, but I decided to look into it further. I used the numbers for beta (1.54) and k (0.0142) that Siegel and coworkers reported. They also reported t(lag) to be 31.2 minutes. My math skills are a bit rusty, but here is what I found: At 31.2 minutes the fraction of food remaining in the stomach was about 0.794 (79.4%) and the fraction of food that had been emptied was 1 - 0.794 = 0.206, or 20.6% if you prefer. I then calculated how much time would elapse to reach only 10% of complete emptying of the stomach, and I found that this was 17.9 minutes. In other words, the time period for 10% emptying was significantly shorter than the time at which the rate of emptying was maximal. It would be nice to be able to do the same calculations for the paper authored by Chen and coworkers and the paper authored by Hellmig and coworkers; however, I could not find where either group had reported the values of beta and k. The longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Chen (about 118 minutes) was significantly shorter than the longest time for "t(lag)" reported by Hellmig (200 minutes, with the second longest being 170 minutes). One reason for this difference might be the fact that the two groups used different definitions of "t(lag)," although other possible explanations could be put forward.
As I see it, the Massei/Mignini TOD is flatly ruled out by the empty duodenum. In addition, other independent lines of evidence put the TOD earlier than 10 PM. This may not be proof that AK and RS are innocent (it depends on what evidence one accepts with respect to their electronic alibi), but it certainly is proof of the extreme unlikelihood of their involvement. MOO.
Yes.
As I understand the PGP argument on this matter, it boils down to "there is a lot of variation" and "digestion is slowed by trauma" and "she didn't get to her laundry or call her mum or even take off her jacket because she didn't feel like it."
I think one of the reasons they refuse to construct a timed narrative of the crime that accounts for all the available evidence is that they know how weak this part of the case is & prefer not to look at it closely.
I'd like to be proved wrong. Maybe Supercal could help out? What time did MK die? What happened between her arrival at the cottage at 9 pm and that moment?
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- is this Selene lady one of those crazy women that fall in love with rapist/murderers?