Will there be another US Civil War?

[lobosrul5]

I think things are quite different than in ~1860.

Back then the landed gentry saw slavery coming to an end in America and they knew that would hit them in the pocket book. They were the financial system of the South back then. Politicians either were them, or they were backed by them. These days more and more money comes from small donors, the reps aren't really beholden to a moneyed elite, they're beholden to the primary voters.

Theres also the big difference in how wars are fought, and how the losers are punished. In 1865 they lost... so what, slavery was going to end anyways. What was their punishment exactly? Not the guys that went out and died, the elite, that could buy their way out of conscription? These days the consequences might be a laser guided bomb coming through your living room window.

And THEN what happens if they win? Their states become more impoverished than now. How do they keep the people happy then?

 

[Craig4]

As I pointed out... ~70 million people voted for Trump in 2020, and the majority of those people still think the election was stolen. If even 0.1% of them decide to engage in some sort of violence, you are potentially talking thousands of terrorists.


On the other hand:
- The capital was probably seen as a hardened target, with police on site. Any sort of terrorist uprising will probably target softer targets... democratic party offices, general government buildings, etc. Locations that do not have a lot of defenses.
- Nobody (at least I don't think) is saying that the U.S. is in a civil war NOW. We are arguing that it is heading in that direction and could find it in a civil war in the future. As such, the Jan 6 terrorist attacks are not a perfect predictor of what would happen in a civil war. See what happens in a decade or so, when demographics have changed and white males are butt-hurt because they no longer run the country.


Unless of course the republicans ever regain the presidency in which case its "Pardon-palooza".

The problem with the one percent figure is that over half of Trump voters are over 50. You're drawing that one percent from the number of voters who are military aged, able to give up work to fight in a civil war and be sustained by the rest of those supporting a civil war but not able or willing to fight. You have to pay for wars, even small insurgencies. It's not as if an enemy force in our civil war is going to be extended credit to pay for its army.

The enemy has to maintain a force in the field, support mobility and provide ammunition for wide array of different weapons, all without a functioning government.

As far as pardon-palooza, that's hardly a sure thing. Trump didn't pardon the enemy after January 6th. If there is a civil war and the Americans win, why would we expect pardons to be forthcoming? And the enemy HAS to win once they start. There is no going back after you start a war. It's extraordinarily unlikely the US would extend Geneva Convention protections insurrectionists.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I've had MAGA's try to tell me that they are the ones with the guns. So naive. Who are they going to shoot at, that will not return fire? Other than school children that is.

You're assuming the armed wings of the state will be there to defend unarmed and peaceful participants in our system. That's a huge assumption and there's plenty of examples of that not happening.

Cops don't need to be active participants in these kinds of scenarios, they need only selectively ignore political violence from their ideological allies. This is already happening in the smaller scale and it's not really that hard to imagine this becoming a larger trend.

 

[Segnosaur]

As I pointed out... ~70 million people voted for Trump in 2020, and the majority of those people still think the election was stolen. If even 0.1% of them decide to engage in some sort of violence, you are potentially talking thousands of terrorists.

The problem with the one percent figure is that over half of Trump voters are over 50. You're drawing that one percent from the number of voters who are military aged, able to give up work to fight in a civil war and be sustained by the rest of those supporting a civil war but not able or willing to fight.

So, instead of 70,000 potential terrorists, you end up with 35,000 terrorists, which is roughly the number of soldiers Canada has in its military.

I don't think people really understand the scale of the problem... there are just SOOO MANY MAGAchud out there that you don't really need a high portion of them to resort to violence to cause significant problems.

You have to pay for wars, even small insurgencies. It's not as if an enemy force in our civil war is going to be extended credit to pay for its army.

A few bucks for some fertilizer and fuel did a pretty good job in the Oklahoma city bombing. And the gun nuts have been stockpiling ammunition for decades.

The enemy has to maintain a force in the field, support mobility and provide ammunition for wide array of different weapons, all without a functioning government.

Ummm... no they don't.

Your average member of Y'All Quaeda probably owns his AR15 and a million rounds of ammo for it. He doesn't need to swap ammo with other terrorists, since everyone will have their own, and he doesn't need any more mobility than his pickup truck and instructions to "go shoot up this polling station".

Again, it seems like you are applying the rules for a traditional military conflict (large scale armies facing off against each other), when the nature of any sort of American insurgency will be substantially different.

As far as pardon-palooza, that's hardly a sure thing.

It doesn't matter what WILL happen. What matters is what the MAGAchud THINK will happen. Even if every bit of evidence suggests that terrorists will be stuck in jail for years, Trump's CLAIMS that he will issue pardons will be convincing enough for some.

Plus, as I pointed out before, most criminals probably don't THINK they will be caught. A member of Y'All Quaeda probably thinks they can set off a few bombs and keep their involvement hidden, regardless of their inability to hide clues.

 

[Thermal]

<snip for focus>

I don't think people really understand the scale of the problem... there are just SOOO MANY MAGAchud out there that you don't really need a high portion of them to resort to violence to cause significant problems.

The thing is, although they number in the millions, they really don't seem to have a pair of testicles between them. They are weak and stupid virtually by definition. As a group, they are not a threat IMO. It's pretty much lone wolves or a small group here and there that will be the threat, and as you pointed out with McVeigh, even one or a few can cause damage.

But not Civil War type damage, or thousands acting together or individually. I think too many overestimate their intelligence and dedication. They want to troll the libs with big Trump flags on their pick em up trucks, not actually...you know...do ****.

 

[Apathia]

The thing is, although they number in the millions, they really don't seem to have a pair of testicles between them. They are weak and stupid virtually by definition. As a group, they are not a threat IMO. It's pretty much lone wolves or a small group here and there that will be the threat, and as you pointed out with McVeigh, even one or a few can cause damage.

But not Civil War type damage, or thousands acting together or individually. I think too many overestimate their intelligence and dedication. They want to troll the libs with big Trump flags on their pick em up trucks, not actually...you know...do ****.

The greater proportion of Trump cultists aren't weak in a "will to power" sort of way. They're simply aged; geriatric and going down the slope.
Oh yes. They goose step for an eighth of a mile after taking their ibuprofen.
They mostly shout at the TV and scream in all caps on Facebook.
(I had an unfortunate FB encounter last week with someone's otherwise wonderful grandmother who F bombed me from orbit for supporting trans rights. But she's not coming for me with a rifle.)

This is not an indictment of the elderly. I'm a withering old fool, myself.
It's just that old folks are the aching backbone of Trumpery.
Yep. they have enough spunk to muck about on Jan 6th, but they aren't enough on a battle field.

That being said, I do expect there will be domestic terrorism, mostly carried out by young whippersnappers.

 

[Segnosaur]

I don't think people really understand the scale of the problem... there are just SOOO MANY MAGAchud out there that you don't really need a high portion of them to resort to violence to cause significant problems.

The thing is, although they number in the millions, they really don't seem to have a pair of testicles between them. They are weak and stupid virtually by definition. As a group, they are not a threat IMO. It's pretty much lone wolves or a small group here and there that will be the threat, and as you pointed out with McVeigh, even one or a few can cause damage.

But not Civil War type damage, or thousands acting together or individually. I think too many overestimate their intelligence and dedication.

You don't really need much intelligence to grab and AR15 and shoot up a local school because "they're teaching critical race theory there".

As for dedication... frankly, they don't even need to be that dedicated to be a problem.

Consider for example Kyle Rittenhouse... a poster-boy for bad decisions. Its not like he had years of indoctrination into white nationalism. But he imagined himself as the hero in his own story, and as a result several people are dead, and the right-wingers have a new Horst Wessel.

They want to troll the libs with big Trump flags on their pick em up trucks, not actually...you know...do ****.

Again, keep in mind that we are not in a civil war NOW. The concern is for the near future. Yeah, the MAGAchud are happy with their Trump flags NOW, but see what happens in a few years, after a few more republican losses and demographic shifts mean that the white males forming Trump's base no longer have the same political influence. Then they may go from simply flag waving to gun-waving.

 

[Craig4]

So, instead of 70,000 potential terrorists, you end up with 35,000 terrorists, which is roughly the number of soldiers Canada has in its military.

I don't think people really understand the scale of the problem... there are just SOOO MANY MAGAchud out there that you don't really need a high portion of them to resort to violence to cause significant problems.


A few bucks for some fertilizer and fuel did a pretty good job in the Oklahoma city bombing. And the gun nuts have been stockpiling ammunition for decades.


Ummm... no they don't.

Your average member of Y'All Quaeda probably owns his AR15 and a million rounds of ammo for it. He doesn't need to swap ammo with other terrorists, since everyone will have their own, and he doesn't need any more mobility than his pickup truck and instructions to "go shoot up this polling station".

Again, it seems like you are applying the rules for a traditional military conflict (large scale armies facing off against each other), when the nature of any sort of American insurgency will be substantially different.

It doesn't matter what WILL happen. What matters is what the MAGAchud THINK will happen. Even if every bit of evidence suggests that terrorists will be stuck in jail for years, Trump's CLAIMS that he will issue pardons will be convincing enough for some.

Plus, as I pointed out before, most criminals probably don't THINK they will be caught. A member of Y'All Quaeda probably thinks they can set off a few bombs and keep their involvement hidden, regardless of their inability to hide clues.

What you're talking about isn't a civil war, it's a law enforcement problem. Random guys with AR-15s is not the same as the ability to apply combat power to a center of gravity at times and places of your choosing. You're describing lots or people like the Michigan Gravy SEALS. That's bad, it's violent but it's not a civil war.