Will there be another US Civil War?

[Hercules56]

I think the only thing that could precipitate a civil war in the USA, is if States once again secede.

And if that happens this time especially if it's a large block of the USA I think the USA won't stop it this time. We don't want to lose 500,000 people again.

 

[GlennB]

Right, but as long as our poor have iPhone in one hand and a Starbucks in the other, they ain't uprising. Hunger pangs drive open revolt, and as long as we are juuuuust robust enough for the poor to be well-entertained and have ample snacks, I don't think we'll be hitting the critical mass needed to overturn the table.

Bingo.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The many groups with the most potential for violence in the USA are too fractured to form a coherent army with common goals. There will likely be a marked increase in political violence but nothing that could be considered a civil war involving two opposing armies.

This ^

They are not only fractured as groups, there is no territory for them to claim in any significant amount. Maybe they'll take over little bits like Bundy's ranch.

Trump has done everything to dis the military so I don't see any rebellion there. Small towns with MAGA police departments could be an issue but that's more likely to be refusal to enforce the law rather than acting.

 

[Stacyhs]

I pretty much agree with the OP and your post cooky.

I worry far more about an authoritarian figure destroying the checks and balances necessary to maintain a democracy.

This is my opinion, too. There will be some uptick in domestic terrorism from the right-wing nut jobs but no Civil War. I also fear more the creeping authoritarianism that we see destroying the very foundations of our democracy.

 

[TragicMonkey]

The status quo has an incredible inertia. The only reason the US had a civil war at all was because two different statuses quo came into direct conflict -- they were mutually contradictory and could not both remain. That is not the case now: for all the gripes and complaints each side of the political spectrum has, nothing either proposes is truly antithetical to coexistence. It may be an uncomfortable coexistence, but it's well within the boundaries of continued operations as we currently have them.

 

[Oystein]

My knowledge about civil wars in history is rather shallow and limited. However, I would suggest we take a look at civil wars in other countries that were fought over ideological divides. The first two that come to my mind are the Russian civil war(s) in the wake of WW1 and the October Revolution, and the Spanish civil war.
In any region of a country, there will be supporters of either side (as well as neutral or 3rd-party folks), but in varying proportions, such that there will be fighting everywhere, but each side may in time find itself controlling stretches of land (provinces, states, ...) where they are relatively strong, and the other side other provinces, and there may then be the in-between regions...

What it takes to WIN a civil war is, often, a charismatic leader - a Lenin, a Franco - who is better at maintaining unity than the opposition.

 

[Solitaire]

I pretty much agree with the OP and your post cooky.

I worry far more about an authoritarian figure destroying
the checks and balances necessary to maintain a democracy.

Well, you know my optimism of a Biden victory in 2024. That's gone.

RFK Jr Could Draw One In Seven US Voters In 2024

Anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of one of the most
storied American political families, could draw the support of about one in
seven U.S. voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll ahead of his presidential
campaign's expected Monday launch. The poll found that Kennedy, the son
and namesake of the slain U.S. senator, could draw votes away from both
Democratic President Joe Biden and his likely Republican challenger Donald
Trump in the 2024 election. Kennedy is expected to run as an independent.

That is a meaningful complication in a narrowly and bitterly divided
country where polls show low enthusiasm for both Biden and former
President Trump in a contest that is likely to be decided in a handful
of competitive states. The two-day nationwide poll completed Wednesday
found that in a two-way matchup, Biden and Trump each had the support
of 35% of respondents, with 11% saying they would vote for some other
candidate, 9% saying they would not vote and 9% saying they did not
know who they would vote for.

In a hypothetical three-way matchup, Kennedy drew 14% support, Biden's
share fell to 31% and Trump's to 33%. About 9% said they wouldn't vote
and 13% said they did not know who they would vote for. That result also
showed Biden and Trump essentially tied because the poll was based on
an online survey of 1,005 people and had a credibility interval, a measure
of precision, of about 4 percentage points in either direction.

I simply cannot say how it will turn out.

 

[acbytesla]

Well, you know my optimism of a Biden victory in 2024. That's gone.

I simply cannot say how it will turn out.

I don’t put much stock in that hypothetical. I believe when push comes to shove. RFK will not be anywhere near that big of a factor. He doesn't draw support from the Democratic party let alone even the Kennedy clan. I don't put much stock in polls 15 months before an election either.

 

[smartcooky]

This is my opinion, too. There will be some uptick in domestic terrorism from the right-wing nut jobs but no Civil War. I also fear more the creeping authoritarianism that we see destroying the very foundations of our democracy.

This.

And this:



I'm heartened by the rest of the replies too. As a non-American you can get a fairly decent perspective of things but there is the fear you don't see enough.

I pretty much agree with the OP and your post cooky.

I worry far more about an authoritarian figure destroying the checks and balances necessary to maintain a democracy.

Not sure if someone here mentioned this earlier, or if its it something I read elsewhere, but its pretty likely that most of the militias and Loopy De Loop outfits such as the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters and the Proud Boys have FBI infiltrators in their ranks. Its almost certainly where the FBI got their information from regarding the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot, and much of the lowdown they obtained in the cases against the 1/6 terrorists.

If I were a betting man, I would bet the FBI will probably have a fair idea what these guys are plotting before they do. The biggest problem I see is the Trump-incited & radicalized lone-wolf. No communications with anyone else so no real way to gather intelligence. The saving grace is probably that the very fact they are Trump supporters most likely means they are as dumb as ******* cinder blocks so anything they do is likely to be poorly planned and poorly executed.

Regardless, one moron with an AR-15 can still kill a lot of people no matter how poorly they plan.

 

[MRC_Hans]

Hah, "Eric's dad" I'm so going to steal that. Name him for the parantage of that guy with zero competence and all the charisma of an old newspaper the cat peed on.

Anyway, civil war: A civil war requires two armies of at least comparable strength. Eric's dad has long since squandered any loyalties he might have had inside the regular army, so his side is left with what mobs he can whip up. Let's see how that played out on Jan 6th: A mob of several hundred was held at bay by a couple of dozen officers largely without using firearms for long enough to completely fail their objective.

The main perpetrators were later rounded up, put to trial and convicted.

So to the ones who speculate about civil war, I ask: Eric's dad and what army?

Sure, isolated incidences of nasty violence, but after all, that's quite another ballpark.

Hans

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Well, you know my optimism of a Biden victory in 2024. That's gone.





I simply cannot say how it will turn out.

Frankly, that's scaremongering. For RFK Jnr to get anything more than 1 or 2 in the national vote (being generous) he's going to have to pull heavily off Trump's base. Because that's where he's looking for voters, off the far-right.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Trump notably did very little to actually co-opt the muscular arms of the state, namely the military and police, to his cause. That said, that doesn't mean the next American right wing demagogue would be similarly short-sighted.

As much as the US military has a right wing bias, it is harder to imagine them taking an active role in any coup or right wing takeover of government without years of deliberate cultivation. Their have their own culture, and while right wing, it is also quite small-c conservative in its outlook. That said, a President has tremendous authority to reconfigure the senior military leadership and could conceivably change the culture with some well placed lackeys.

American police, however, are openly radicalized and are ready and willing to be co-opted into some larger national political project. They are already out their with their whole bootlicking, police as first-class citizens above democratic control outlook. It's wild to me that Trump didn't seize on this opportunity, but he totally neglected this.

I'd sooner expect cops to be playing an active role in any civil conflict in this country than the military.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Tommy Tuberville is doing more to alienate the military from the Republican party than anyone else.

 

[Apathia]

The status quo has an incredible inertia. The only reason the US had a civil war at all was because two different statuses quo came into direct conflict -- they were mutually contradictory and could not both remain. That is not the case now: for all the gripes and complaints each side of the political spectrum has, nothing either proposes is truly antithetical to coexistence. It may be an uncomfortable coexistence, but it's well within the boundaries of continued operations as we currently have them.

States talking secession, mainly Texas, need the rest of the country, but the rest of the country doesn't need Texas.

Or Florida! Break away, Florida, and make your own Cuba!

 

[sackett]

American police are openly radicalized? Really? All of 'em, beat cops, dispatchers, captains, seargents? Ready-made blackshirts yearning to breathe unfree? In every city? Town? Village?

Sure hope there's data to back that up. There is, isn't there?

 

[lobosrul5]

States talking secession, mainly Texas, need the rest of the country, but the rest of the country doesn't need Texas.

Or Florida! Break away, Florida, and make your own Cuba!

Think of the money we'd save from no longer subsidizing their flood insurance!

 

[Stacyhs]

Tommy Tuberville is doing more to alienate the military from the Republican party than anyone else.

I was wondering how one idiot in the Senate can stop military nominations, promotions, etc. This article explains how a senatorial hold works. IMO, it needs to be changed as it gives one idiot too much power.

Here’s How Sen. Tommy Tuberville Can Hold Up An Entire Nomination Process

 

[Stacyhs]

American police are openly radicalized? Really? All of 'em, beat cops, dispatchers, captains, seargents? Ready-made blackshirts yearning to breathe unfree? In every city? Town? Village?

Sure hope there's data to back that up. There is, isn't there?

I agree with you. There is no denying that power hungry bullies are attracted to police work, but it disparages those police officers who DO 'protect and serve'. Lumping them all into the "openly radicalized" basket is unfair and untrue.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I agree with you. There is no denying that power hungry bullies are attracted to police work, but it disparages those police officers who DO 'protect and serve'. Lumping them all into the "openly radicalized" basket is unfair and untrue.

What are the former doing about the latter?

 

[smartcooky]

I agree with you. There is no denying that power hungry bullies are attracted to police work, but it disparages those police officers who DO 'protect and serve'. Lumping them all into the "openly radicalized" basket is unfair and untrue.

Yeah. I'd argue that there are certain precincts and jurisdictions that are openly right wing supportive, for example Polk County FL, where the Sheriff, Grady Judd, openly supports Ron De Santris, and speaks at his rallies. There are also officers who are clearly supporters of white nationalism. There are even precincts in New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago which have officers who are active members of paramilitary groups such as the Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters.

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/05/1052...ties-appear-on-purported-oath-keepers-rosters

But the idea that the whole of the police and its organizations and administrations nationwide are all far-right and radicalized is preposterous.
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