Will tariffs make America great?

Andy_Ross said:
Trump says he's going to tariff all smartphones: "It would be also Samsung and anybody that makes that product, otherwise it wouldn't be fair. So anybody that makes that product. And that'll start on I guess the end of June ... when they build the plant here there's no tariff."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1925990567000862990
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Just call all the new models "intelligent phones" instead of "smart". Trump can't spell "intelligent". It's not a word used around him either. He's unfamiliar with it.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Trump says he's going to tariff all smartphones...
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After telling everyone last month that consumer electronics were tariff-exempt. This isn't a policy. It's a toddler fiddling with the knobs and giggling.

Andy_Ross said:
[Trump] "...when they build the plant here there's no tariff."
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Best estimate I've seen for a smartphone factory in the U.S. is four years. So those plants will be up and running three months after Pres. Trump leaves office and the incoming President may have rolled back all the tariffs. And U.S.-made smartphones will cost at least twice as much as those made overseas.
 
JayUtah said:
After telling everyone last month that consumer electronics were tariff-exempt. This isn't a policy. It's a toddler fiddling with the knobs and giggling.


Best estimate I've seen for a smartphone factory in the U.S. is four years. So those plants will be up and running three months after Pres. Trump leaves office and the incoming President may have rolled back all the tariffs. And U.S.-made smartphones will cost at least twice as much as those made overseas.
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Unless of course Trump is still President because they found a way to give him a third term or they suspended democracy.
 
JayUtah said:
After telling everyone last month that consumer electronics were tariff-exempt. This isn't a policy. It's a toddler fiddling with the knobs and giggling.


Best estimate I've seen for a smartphone factory in the U.S. is four years. So those plants will be up and running three months after Pres. Trump leaves office and the incoming President may have rolled back all the tariffs. And U.S.-made smartphones will cost at least twice as much as those made overseas.
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And that will only be for assembling smartphones.

Factories manufacturing components for the smartphones will need to be built, mines/quarries for the raw materials will need to be built. And of course all those factories and mines will need fitting out and that equipment will need to be built.

For the supply chain required to have smartphone manufacturing be entirely USA based it would probably require hundreds of billions of investment by a multitude of companies over many years. And company boards are not going to start sinking billions of investment based on Trump's capricious "policies".

For companies like Apple who are currently a predominantly procurement company it makes no financial sense for them to start changing their entire business model. Crazy as it may sound it would make more financial sense for them to eat any import tarrifs for the next few years, even to the extent of losing money in the USA market. (Assuming Trump's idiotic tarrifs end with him.)
 
JayUtah said:
Best estimate I've seen for a smartphone factory in the U.S. is four years. So those plants will be up and running three months after Pres. Trump leaves office and the incoming President may have rolled back all the tariffs.
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The current President may have rolled them back by then. The current President may have rolled them back by next week. And then imposed them again. And then rolled them back again.

Nobody can make any investment plans based on anything a President as flaky, stupid and unpredictable as the current one says or does.
 
Darat said:
And that will only be for assembling smartphones.

Factories manufacturing components for the smartphones will need to be built, mines/quarries for the raw materials will need to be built. And of course all those factories and mines will need fitting out and that equipment will need to be built.

For the supply chain required to have smartphone manufacturing be entirely USA based it would probably require hundreds of billions of investment by a multitude of companies over many years. And company boards are not going to start sinking billions of investment based on Trump's capricious "policies".

For companies like Apple who are currently a predominantly procurement company it makes no financial sense for them to start changing their entire business model. Crazy as it may sound it would make more financial sense for them to eat any import tarrifs for the next few years, even to the extent of losing money in the USA market. (Assuming Trump's idiotic tarrifs end with him.)
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Or indeed simply abandon the US market. As the US becomes more insular and has more US-specific requirements then companies may simply decide that it's not worth bothering with that market.

Vehicle manufacturers may well decide that it's not worthwhile having ICE models specifically for the US market when the rest of the world is only buying EVs.

On a much smaller scale, a company I used to work for decided to pull out of the American IT services market which accounted for 25% of turnover when the hassle of dealing with US business and tax regulations outweighed benefits.
 
JayUtah said:
After telling everyone last month that consumer electronics were tariff-exempt. This isn't a policy. It's a toddler fiddling with the knobs and giggling.


Best estimate I've seen for a smartphone factory in the U.S. is four years. So those plants will be up and running three months after Pres. Trump leaves office and the incoming President may have rolled back all the tariffs. And U.S.-made smartphones will cost at least twice as much as those made overseas.
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On the "plus" side, you, your children, and your grandchildren will all have jobs in the factory installing tiny screws, according to Secretary of Commerce Lutnick.
 
www.businessinsider.com

Tariffs won't bring manufacturing jobs back to America, Wells Fargo analysts say

Despite some high-profile pledges to invest in domestic manufacturing, Wells Fargo doesn't see an increase in factory jobs in the foreseeable future.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
"In order for manufacturing employment to return to its historic peak, we estimate at a minimum $2.9 trillion in net new capital investment is required," Wells Fargo analysts wrote. "Assuming businesses are willing and able to invest such ample sums, questions over staffing remain."
"The Wall Street bank says that US manufacturing employment currently stands at 12.8 million, down from its 1979 peak of 19.5 million. To get back to that mark, the US would need to add roughly 6.7 million jobs. Wells Fargo added that the figure is nearly the same as the entire pool of unemployed Americans, which in April was 7.2 million, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Population aging, negative perceptions, and skill mismatches also underpin workforce concerns," Wells Fargo analysts wrote. "New jobs will require different skills than those previously lost."
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Tero said:
www.businessinsider.com

Tariffs won't bring manufacturing jobs back to America, Wells Fargo analysts say

Despite some high-profile pledges to invest in domestic manufacturing, Wells Fargo doesn't see an increase in factory jobs in the foreseeable future.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
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imo there’s no question that manufacturing jobs in production aren’t highly desired. almost universally they pay slightly better than retail work, for longer and probably worse hours, with less flexibility in worse conditions. if you’re working through a temp agency it’s even worse. many people decide it’s not worth the small pay increase, and imo there’s legitimacy to that.
 
William Parcher said:
If the next President is a Democrat are they likely to remove tariffs?
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well, perhaps. i would imagine they would work towards the most favorable trade conditions possible. but, completely scrapping trade deals in place and starting over isn't as easy as trump made it sound. imo there's an unbelievable amount of uncertainty right now in the future, but let's just say a dem wins in 2028, who knows what kind of position the us will be negotiating any changes in trade from. this guy's only been in office for a few months, look at what has happened. 2028 is a long time.
 
William Parcher said:
If the next President is a Democrat are they likely to remove tariffs?
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Strategically re-assess. Certainly, the nonsense situation will be rapidly ameliorated.

Whilst technically not permissible - Logan Act: only the government can negotiate for the USA, not private citizens - Trump has set the precedent that any such restrictions are moot and not enforced.

If the incoming incumbent is in any way smart, s/he would have been quietly "discussing" trade with foreign leaders already before inauguration. The idea would be to have new relationships and agreements in the pipeline and ready to roll on Day 1. Then the moment they take power, formalise the new agreements and treaties, etc., and enforce the Logan Act strongly so the outgoing Repubs and Trump admin go to jail if they try to scupper it.
 
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