Will plug-in-hybrid vehicles solve anything?

redwards said:
This is actually what I was referring to. You might argue a bit about losses in power transmission or emissions incurred from extracting, refining and shipping oil vs. coal, but there are a ton of variables there. Oil is often shipped from overseas and has to be refined, coal mining results in blowing off mountain tops, etc. Let's call this a wash just for the sake of argument right now.

So let's see here. The Chevy Volt uses 36 kWh of energy per 100 miles in all-electric mode. The average coal-fired power plant emits 2,249 lbs/MWh of carbon dioxide, which is 2.249 lbs/kWh.

This means that the Chevy Volt would produce 80.964 pounds of carbon dioxide per 100 mile trip if it were power exclusively by power from a coal-fired powerplant. That comes out to 0.81 pounds per mile. By contrast, the average passenger car produces 0.916 pounds of CO2 per mile (this is only the average passenger car, light trucks produce more, and big ****-off SUVs produce even more). All of the figures used above come from the EPA; I can throw up the links if you care to double-check.

So a Chevy Volt is cleaner than a passenger car even if we presume the Volt relies exclusively on energy from a coal-fired power plant. Considering that coal provides something like half of our nation's power, and that the other half produces varyingly lower levels of carbon dioxide emission, I think it's pretty safe to say that an electric fleet would produce fewer carbon dioxide emissions than the current gasoline fleet.
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According to this site (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/e...power-transmission-distribution-losses-output ) and assuming I understand it electric power transmission and distribution losses in the US were 6.39% in 2004 so that probably needs to be figured into the calculation some place. Although it may already have been, I would like to see the source of the underlying data if that was possible. Although it is irrelevant to this discussion I thought it was interesting that the two worst countries with respect to this were the Republic of the Congo at 73.62% and Haiti at 53.2%. First who in the world is figuring out what the percentage of power lost to distribution in the Republic of the Congo and secondly how in the world can it be that incredibly bad compared to other countries?
 
jayh said:
You do remember, do you not the rolling blackouts/brownouts of a few years ago caused merely by air conditioning?

The current grid is in really sad shape, patched together by bandaids. It needs to be replaced by DC distribution, but that involves complete rework. It also needs a lot more distribution lines and property rights of way often take many years in the courts.

Around here the electric utilities keep begging us to use less electricity, not more.
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That was a peak issue and it had to do with more than just capacity. Never the less I agree the US is in need of a smarter grid. AC though.
 
Hydrogen fuel

This may be of interest to you guys. Scientists in Britain are refining the recipe for a hydrogen-based fuel that will run in existing cars and engines at a fraction of the cost of petrol.

The Daily Mail reports that it produces no harmful emissions. Let’s hope this new fuel is not removed like the EV1 was.

Read the full report in link below.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ost-artificial-petrol/articleshow/7397489.cms

This link is also interesting for future energy
http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/technology/hydrogen-fuel/
 
redwards said:
Honestly, I think the most important aspect of the switch is the move to a system in which power is simply stored in battery.
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I don't see how that's even possible until you can go to a service station and swap out your depleted battery for a fresh one as easily as a gas tank can be filled.

Nobody wants to drive 60 miles, then have 12 hours of down time while the battery is being recharged. Assuming, of course, you even have a place to plug in. The conundrum is that urban areas are where electric vehicles make the most sense, they're also a place where relatively few car owners have a garage or even a private parking pad where charging equipment can be installed. How will you charge if the closest street parking spot to your house is a block away? And even if you find a spot right in front your extension cord will be going across the sidewalk, just waiting for some assclown to trip over and then sue you. And if you don't have a garage what's to keep some joker from unplugging your car in the middle of the night or while you're working?
 
redwards said:
The Volt is a four door car that is longer, wider, taller, and 1,000 pounds heavier than a Honda Civic. It's hardly small.

vside2.jpg
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What's the weight without the batteries? Compare it to cars with similar passenger and cargo capacity, not weight.
 
redwards said:
Also, the Tesla Roadster has a 250 mile range and a recharge time of 3.5 hours. That's the existing state of electric vehicle technology.

Their next model is slated for a 2012 release. They claim a range of up to 300 miles, a recharge time of 3-5 hours, a 'QuickCharge' time of 45 minutes, and a battery swap time of 5 minutes (for those roadside breakdowns you mentioned). It's also a full-size sedan, rather than a tiny little roadster. And lastly, there's some talk about a 'range extender' option, which would add a gasoline generator, essentially making a Volt-style hybrid.

So again, I'd say: given the existing state of the technology, I can easily see electric and hybrid electric vehicles as viable replacements for (and improvements upon) today's internal combustion engine vehicles.
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And what is the cost of that Tesla Roadster?

And no, mass production of a good that relies on rare and scarce materials will not drive prices down, it will drive the price up. We can't manufacture more lithium to meet demand, it has to be mined.
 
redwards said:
Or, for, you know, the millions of Americans who live in an average family unit with two parents and two cars.
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How many of those "average" family units can afford a $100,000 second car, such as the Tesla you keep pimping?
 
webb5 said:
Read the full report in link below.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ost-artificial-petrol/articleshow/7397489.cms
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From that link
The fuel is expected to cost around $1.50 a gallon, or 19p a litre. Even with fuel taxes, the forecourt price is likely to be around 60p a litre - less than half the current cost in the UK.
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The question is does that fuel have the same energy as a gallon of gasoline?

Cost per gallon is fine, but if that gallon of hydrogen fuel has only 1/10 the energy of gasoline it's still far cheaper to run on gasoline.
 
davefoc said:
According to this site (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/e...power-transmission-distribution-losses-output ) and assuming I understand it electric power transmission and distribution losses in the US were 6.39% in 2004 so that probably needs to be figured into the calculation some place. Although it may already have been, I would like to see the source of the underlying data if that was possible. Although it is irrelevant to this discussion I thought it was interesting that the two worst countries with respect to this were the Republic of the Congo at 73.62% and Haiti at 53.2%. First who in the world is figuring out what the percentage of power lost to distribution in the Republic of the Congo and secondly how in the world can it be that incredibly bad compared to other countries?
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A 6% difference doesn't appear to change the result of the calculations.
 
WildCat said:
I don't see how that's even possible until you can go to a service station and swap out your depleted battery for a fresh one as easily as a gas tank can be filled.

Nobody wants to drive 60 miles, then have 12 hours of down time while the battery is being recharged. Assuming, of course, you even have a place to plug in. The conundrum is that urban areas are where electric vehicles make the most sense, they're also a place where relatively few car owners have a garage or even a private parking pad where charging equipment can be installed. How will you charge if the closest street parking spot to your house is a block away? And even if you find a spot right in front your extension cord will be going across the sidewalk, just waiting for some assclown to trip over and then sue you. And if you don't have a garage what's to keep some joker from unplugging your car in the middle of the night or while you're working?
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If you read the rest of the thread, you'll note that there are electric vehicles on the market now with a 250 mile range and a 3 hour recharge time, and there are electric vehicles slated to be released next year with batteries that can be swapped out in minutes. Certainly, these are issues, but none of them seem insurmountable.
 
WildCat said:
What's the weight without the batteries? Compare it to cars with similar passenger and cargo capacity, not weight.
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Weight is the killer.
As I read the group it's about the practicality (or not) of electric cars and so far the hybrids have a slight edge
 
WildCat said:
How many of those "average" family units can afford a $100,000 second car, such as the Tesla you keep pimping?
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I think I was pretty explicit that hybrids and electrics are not currently cost-effective. Tesla makes luxury cars because they know perfectly well that their existing market is basically confined to rich tree-huggers. But as the market for hybrids and electrics expands and the technology improves, they'll get cheaper. The Nissan Leaf runs just over $30,000, I believe. Again, certainly not cost-effective for what it is, but closer to a realistic price for an everyday vehicle.
 
redwards said:
If you read the rest of the thread, you'll note that there are electric vehicles on the market now with a 250 mile range and a 3 hour recharge time, and there are electric vehicles slated to be released next year with batteries that can be swapped out in minutes. Certainly, these are issues, but none of them seem insurmountable.
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And those vehicles have a sticker price of over $100,000, and I doubt there's more than a handful of shops in the entire country where the batteries can be swapped.
 
redwards said:
I think I was pretty explicit that hybrids and electrics are not currently cost-effective. Tesla makes luxury cars because they know perfectly well that their existing market is basically confined to rich tree-huggers. But as the market for hybrids and electrics expands and the technology improves, they'll get cheaper. The Nissan Leaf runs just over $30,000, I believe. Again, certainly not cost-effective for what it is, but closer to a realistic price for an everyday vehicle.
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They will certainly not get cheaper so long as we're using lithium batteries. And the funny thing about them is the more you make the more expensive they will be, there are no economies of scale to be had when your main raw material is scarce and difficult and expensive to extract.

Batteries are hte weak spot in electric vehicles, and there's no solution in sight for that problem. And billions have been spent searching... it will be some time beffore plug-in electrics are ready for prime time.
 
WildCat said:
They will certainly not get cheaper so long as we're using lithium batteries. And the funny thing about them is the more you make the more expensive they will be, there are no economies of scale to be had when your main raw material is scarce and difficult and expensive to extract.

Batteries are hte weak spot in electric vehicles, and there's no solution in sight for that problem. And billions have been spent searching... it will be some time beffore plug-in electrics are ready for prime time.
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Lithium. Lithium metal is costly (about $50/lb), but the pure metallic form is not required for Li-ion cells. The actual lithium compound used to make cathode materials, lithium carbonate (Li2CO3), is considerably less expensive. The price history of lithium carbonate is shown in Figure 5.6. The average price reported for lithium carbonate in the United States at the end of 1999 was $4.47/kg ($2.03/lb). However, increased production in Chile and Argentina has led to a recent oversupply, and actual prices paid have been as much as 50% below the list, matching the price of
only $0.90/lb from Chile and Argentina. A shutdown of the Argentine production due to process problems caused the price to rise again, but the price was still below list in early 2000 (Ober 2000).

Recycled materials and sales from DOE stock put further downward pressure on prices. Large demand for batteries could eventually drive the price up. At the current list price, the lithium carbonate for the batteries in an EV like the Altra would cost about $100, and the material for an HEV battery would cost about $5.
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http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/149.pdf

I didn't read the paper and I'm going to bed so I just found a relevant snippet, read it and cut and pasted it in. The paper seems thorough and even if the the lithium isn't a long term stumbling block to cheaper lithium ion batteries it may be there are others described in the paper.

And FWIW, my general sense of this is that wildcat is right that batteries are the key technology for EV's and with the massive amount of research already invested it doesn't seem likely that somebody's going to make a major breakthrough any time soon that will lead to EV's that are actually cost competitive with cars powered by ICE's.

ETA: The Leaf costs $33K. That sounds like it is within shouting distance of being cost competitive with an ICE powered car. How does it stack up? Is that price subsidized by either Nissan of the government?

ETA: I found this cost of ownership calculator that might be of interest if somebody wants to compare the cost of a current EV with another vehicle.
http://www.befrugal.com/tools/electric-car-calculator/
 
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On the other hand, lithium batteries are recyclable, and if your argument is about scarcity of raw materials, the standard fuel for the existing fleet doesn't appear to have a bright future.

As far as competitive EVs, there are new EVs being launched in the next year or two by Ford, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Mitsubishi, Tesla, Hyundai, BMW, VW...

I'm guessing that it's unlikely that nearly every major auto company on the planet is wrong about the direction of the market.
 
WildCat said:
...... Assuming, of course, you even have a place to plug in. The conundrum is that urban areas are where electric vehicles make the most sense, they're also a place where relatively few car owners have a garage or even a private parking pad where charging equipment can be installed. How will you charge if the closest street parking spot to your house is a block away? And even if you find a spot right in front your extension cord will be going across the sidewalk, just waiting for some assclown to trip over and then sue you. And if you don't have a garage what's to keep some joker from unplugging your car in the middle of the night or while you're working?
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Bingo. What %age of New Yorkers, Londoners, Parisians etc etc live in apartments? 4th floor? Dangle your recharging cable over the balcony? Live on the opposite side of the building from the street? oooops.

A garage appears essential for home recharging for all the reasons Wildcat gives, yet what %age of house owners have a garage? We're getting down to quite small numbers even in the USA where (it seems) integral garages are relatively common.

Battery exchange is the only way this system could be truly useful - solving both the range and recharge problems - so let's hope the manufacturers can establish a fair degree of standardisation early on. And build a lot of exchange stations with some excellent heavy machinery to do the swapping. What do those batteries weigh again?

The more I think about it the more it seems like pie-in-the-sky, but let's try to be optimistic :)
 
WildCat said:
From that link

The question is does that fuel have the same energy as a gallon of gasoline?
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If it does, then we might have a solution there. The other question is how much energy is needed to produce a gallon of this new fuel...?
 
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