davefoc
Philosopher
It helps the cause of more efficient -- or more efficiently used -- vehicles, certainly.
I doubt it will have that much effect on plug-in hybrids, though.
If I find the price of gasoline to be a financial hardship, I'm almost certainly not going to be able to afford the additional cost of upgrading to a hybrid. Instead I'd probably either drive less, take public transit, or if necessary sell my car and buy a smaller sized one. (Drop from the Accord to the Civic, or the Civic to the Fit, or from the Fit to a motorcycle.)
The idea that I can't afford $200 more a month to fill the Accord, so instead I'll pay another $300 a month in payments for a hybrid is,.... counterintuitive.
I thought I'd do a few calculations to examine the issue of the affordability of hybrids.
Assumptions
capital cost: 5%
cost of non-hybrid vehicle $20,000
cost of hybrid vehicle $25,000
non-hybrid vehicle mileage: 30 mpg
hybrid vehicle mileage: 45 mpg
miles driven: 10K, 12K, 15K, & 20K
gas price: $4, $5, & $6
life of car: 12 years & 200,000 miles
maintenance and insurance costs: excluded from calcs, assume same for both vehicles
I was surprised at how similar the costs for both vehicles was across the various permutations.
A few samples:
10K miles, life of car 200,000 miles, gas price $4
cost per year hybrid - 3388.89
cost per year non-hybrid - 3142.86
20K miles, life of car 200,000 miles, gas price $4
cost per year hybrid - 5527.78
cost per year non-hybrid - 5285.71
10K miles, life of car 200,000 miles, gas price $6
cost per year hybrid - 3833.33
cost per year non-hybrid - 3714.29
20K miles, life of car 200,000 miles, gas price $6
cost per year hybrid - 6416.67
cost per year non-hybrid - 6428.57
And of course any advantage of hybrids is reduced if the mileage difference between a hybrid and a non-hybrid is less than I have assumed here as is the case for most non-Prius hybrids.
The bottom line is that drkitten seems to be right. If you want to save money buy a cheap, high mileage car and right now cheap excludes hybrids.