Why Trump will be reelected

d4m10n said:
It would be very nice to see them campaigning together again. :D
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If Biden is going to be the nominee, Obama might as well go all in.

He's the subtext of Biden's campaign. If Obama shows his face and Biden starts putting ads out comparing job growth under his man Obama vs Trump, that could give him a boost.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I just wonder whether a Biden presidency would be enough to stamp out the embers of the proto-authoritarian right.
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Except that nothing the Democrats do, and no one they nominate, is going to stamp those out. What do you imagine Bernie would do to do so? He's everything they hate about progressives. He's liable to annoy them and push them rightward even more.

The problem is the culture of the US right these days. These are large-scale social movements that can't be stopped by the opposition. It has to be changed from the right... but then how? The only way the left could affect that would be with sweeping policies so successful and beneficial to GOP voters that they can't deny their appeal and just calm the hell down and learn to love big government. And if you think that's not pie-in-the-sky, I've got a really nice bridge in Brooklyn for you to look over.
 
d4m10n said:
This sounds like a pretty wonderful deal to me, at least as I'd like to envision it playing out.

Senate Majority Leader Elizabeth Warren comes up with legislative fixes and systemic reforms that are just as progressive as they can be, given the ideological differences which exist among half a hundred Democratic Senators. She passes these reforms out of the Senate and Leader Pelosi has no trouble getting them through the House.

Subsequently, Biden throws a rubberstamp party: :gavel: :gavel: :gavel:

I would pack up and move to this timeline in a heartbeat.
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I don't know why people focus on the Presidency so much anyway. What really matters is Congress and the courts, in the end.
 
Delvo said:
Close, but not quite the real problem; the real problem is that both sides were really the same side all along: the bribe-taking, trickle-up-economics, let-the-peasants-eat-dirt side.
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Gosh, I'm glad I don't live in your world of cynicism. It makes for great movies but sucky realities.

SuburbanTurkey said:
Emperor Bernie gonna make the SCOTUS 100 members and pack it with young, healthy DSA members that take their orders from Cuba.
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SuburbanTurkey said:
Got any polling on that?
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Wow, that breakdown of rational debate came even faster than with Sid.
 
Sideroxylon said:
What are the most important things those seats could deliver to you?
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It's always weird to me how foreigners with no good understanding of the American system of government have so much unearned confidence in their understanding of American politics.

Anyway, to answer your question: Legislative traction. Control over judicial appointments. Restoration of Congressional authority delegated to the president by previous Congresses. Budget prioritization. Enough seats, and veto proof majorities. HTH. HAND!
 
theprestige said:
It's always weird to me how foreigners with no good understanding of the American system of government have so much unearned confidence in their understanding of American politics.

Anyway, to answer your question: Legislative traction. Control over judicial appointments. Restoration of Congressional authority delegated to the president by previous Congresses. Budget prioritization. Enough seats, and veto proof majorities. HTH. HAND!
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So power but as a means to what policy ends?
 
Belz... said:
Except that nothing the Democrats do, and no one they nominate, is going to stamp those out. What do you imagine Bernie would do to do so? He's everything they hate about progressives. He's liable to annoy them and push them rightward even more.
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Populist unrest can have a progressive/left outlet rather than being exclusively harnessed by the right. It would help if the supposed left party of the political spectrum acknowledged that there are legitimate grievances and proposed solutions. There are very real material strains on the common American's lives. Flat wages, growing costs of necessary goods and services, collapsing infrastructure and social services. All these things are right in the liberal wheelhouse, or at least they used to be when liberals actually cared about working people.

Trump came in promising to solve the beleaguered citizens' problems. The Democratic party largely denied that any problems existed.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
Populist unrest can have a progressive/left outlet rather than being exclusively harnessed by the right.
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And that overlap, the fact that some voters seeking a populist to solve the country's problems are willing to vote with either party to get it, also means giving voters a populist choice on the left would be exactly how to take some of them away from the right. But that's exactly what the Democrat establishment wants not to do.

Trump got in by pretending to be populist. Hillary didn't, and Biden doesn't, even pretend. Biden in particular wears his contempt for the peasants on his sleeve. "Gimme a break".
 
Belz... said:
I don't know why people focus on the Presidency so much anyway. What really matters is Congress and the courts, in the end.
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And in particular, the Senate, which approves federal judges. If Moscow Mitch remains in control, which I expect he will, not one nominee by any Democratic President will be approved. At any level.
 
d4m10n said:
Hopefully, yes.

Do you sincerely believe the Roberts court will look at Sanders' most ambitious reforms (e.g. abolishing private insurance) and find them constitutional?
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No, of course not. Biden's fantasy that bipartisan cooperation will somehow be on the table during his hypothetical presidency is absurd and Bernie doesn't share the delusion. This narrative has been obsolete since at least the 90's, it's time to put it away and deal with reality.

Bernie is open about the entrenched nature of US politics and is taking an explicit war footing against the right. Perhaps his idea of a mass movement of sustained grassroots pressure is a long shot, but it has more chance of success than pretending that good-faith bipartisan negotiation is a possibility. Bernie doesn't look at the Roberts court and believe the patently absurd lie about an impartial, non-partisan court. He rightly sees a political obstacle.

So yeah, Bernie's plan to pack the court is extreme. It's also the only plan dealing with the reality of the very shrewd and successful gamesmanship that the right has been playing when it comes to the SCOTUS.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
Populist unrest can have a progressive/left outlet rather than being exclusively harnessed by the right.
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Sure, but this has two problems:

First of all in both cases it requires a major restructuring of the system that many would rather not see (I guess it's the Devil-You-Know principle). Second, do you think the progressive solutions would appeal to the bulk of angry Trump supporters? They seem to want government to crash and burn, while progressives seem to want more government. That seems incompatible to me.
 
Belz... said:
Sure, but this has two problems:

First of all in both cases it requires a major restructuring of the system that many would rather not see (I guess it's the Devil-You-Know principle). Second, do you think the progressive solutions would appeal to the bulk of angry Trump supporters? They seem to want government to crash and burn, while progressives seem to want more government. That seems incompatible to me.
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About 1/2 the country voted for Trump. 1/2 of the country are not MAGA CHUDs though. 1/2 of the country aren't Steve Miller types, or Proud Boy street brawlers, or 4chan groypers.

Some of these people are persuadable. Some of these people are more concerned about their material conditions than they are about sticking it to minorities. Some of these people will happily ride a rising tide, even if it means helping out other vulnerable people not like them.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
About 1/2 the country voted for Trump.
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More like 1/4th. Turnout, remember.

1/2 of the country are not MAGA CHUDS though.
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MAGA CHUDS. Ha! I assume that's a play on "mada chod", with a sprinkle of Cannibalistic Humanoid Underground Dweller thrown in?

Some of these people are persuadable.
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I'm not saying they're not, but in an increasingly polarized country where left and right definitely don't want the same thing, it seems very hard.
 
Belz... said:
More like 1/4th. Turnout, remember.



MAGA CHUDS. Ha! I assume that's a play on "mada chod", with a sprinkle of Cannibalistic Humanoid Underground Dweller thrown in?
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You give me too much credit for mada chod. But yeah, I happily describe the worst elements of MAGA world as CHUDs. They aren't really human anymore, they've spent too much time in the dark.



Belz... said:
I'm not saying they're not, but in an increasingly polarized country where left and right definitely don't want the same thing, it seems very hard.
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In a hyper partisan world, even pulling a small fraction of the other side's support off is a major coup.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Perhaps his idea of a mass movement of sustained grassroots pressure is a long shot, but it has more chance of success than pretending that good-faith bipartisan negotiation is a possibility.
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If we had seen a surge in youth turnout on Super Tuesday (just one day) I would be much less skeptical of the idea of banking our future on a sustained mass movement.

SuburbanTurkey said:
So yeah, Bernie's plan to pack the court is extreme. It's also the only plan dealing with the reality of the very shrewd and successful gamesmanship that the right has been playing when it comes to the SCOTUS.
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Not just extreme, but also unconstitutional. Federal judges “shall hold their offices during good behaviour,” and the office currently held by people like Kavanaugh and Gorsuch is “associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.” I don't think you will find legal scholars of any standing who will affirm that sitting justices can be demoted from the high court by anything other than the impeachment process used on Samuel Chase.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Some of these people are persuadable. Some of these people are more concerned about their material conditions than they are about sticking it to minorities. Some of these people will happily ride a rising tide, even if it means helping out other vulnerable people not like them.
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This is basically how it worked until Clinton and NAFTA. It isn't new.

It may be that Biden has a better chance of winning overall because this isn't 2016, but if we follow the assumption that it at all depends on reluctant rust belt Trump voters, maybe the guy who supported NAFTA and other Clinton era trade pacts isn't the guy you want.

Might be better off being a socialist.
 
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