Who Killed the EV-1?

From Cuddles quote of the Wiki article:



For the mass of suburban commuters the first and third are not usually a problem. Most commutes are around 40 miles and the car sits the garage overnight anyway. There should have been a mass market for it.

Regarding lease only, I have never seen any explanation for this. What other car was introduced as a no-buy vehicle? Do you know why this approach was taken.

Finally, much was made in the film Joey cited about the cars not only being recalled but destroyed. Is this true and, if so, again what was the rationale
?


I can probably tell you why because its the same thing we do with industrial prototype runs

Leasing keeps the owner of the product and its technology in ownership control as well as maintenance/evaluations and such- they need that for evaluation.

As to destruction- same reasons. It keeps their technology from being obtained, it also keeps their product from being modified then something bad happens ( bad press) ( especially from something considered "failed")
 
Someone has to design that "something"

So, by your professional estimate, a viable 100 percent electric commuter vehicle solution will not be possible until major breakthroughs in battery technology are realized?

Are hydrogen fuel cells workable, or are they still too large, expensive, and inefficient?

This is becoming less and less of a CT thread with every post, which isn't a bad thing. I'm becoming more convinced that the realities of the automotive market, consumer attitudes, and power technology killed this car and not some oil industry cabal.

Oh...one point I'd like to make. The film states that the oil industry "suppressed" the company making the NiMH batteries. Not having seen it in depth, I defer here. What could he be talking about?
 
So, by your professional estimate, a viable 100 percent electric commuter vehicle solution will not be possible until major breakthroughs in battery technology are realized?

Are hydrogen fuel cells workable, or are they still too large, expensive, and inefficient?

This is becoming less and less of a CT thread with every post, which isn't a bad thing. I'm becoming more convinced that the realities of the automotive market, consumer attitudes, and power technology killed this car and not some oil industry cabal.

Oh...one point I'd like to make. The film states that the oil industry "suppressed" the company making the NiMH batteries. Not having seen it in depth, I defer here. What could he be talking about?

So, by your professional estimate, a viable 100 percent electric commuter vehicle solution will not be possible until major breakthroughs in battery technology are realized?

I'm going to say alternate power generation capability because I do not believe it is even possible to build a "battery" that will equal what you can get from a fill up in terms of time,cost, support infrastructure. Not now or ever.

Are hydrogen fuel cells workable, or are they still too large, expensive, and inefficient?

Not my area of expertise- dont know but from what I read- they have the same problems ( energy conservation laws) as conventional battery designs.

This is becoming less and less of a CT thread with every post, which isn't a bad thing. I'm becoming more convinced that the realities of the automotive market, consumer attitudes, and power technology killed this car and not some oil industry cabal.

Let me kill it for you- i work all over the Oil/Gas industry. They laugh at it. The technology doesnt work. They didnt have to do anything but sit back and watch it die on its own. What has been produced- the market at large doesnt want.

Oh...one point I'd like to make. The film states that the oil industry "suppressed" the company making the NiMH batteries. Not having seen it in depth, I defer here. What could he be talking about

a made up story. How would an alien industry "control" or "suppress' TECHNOLOGY of another?
 
ANY company that designs a car to your specifications will be bankrupt within the week. Your criteria are fine but have nothing to do with the market and viability of the mass market electric car.


actually it does. If the car isn't attractive and affordable, no one would buy it. if no one buys it, then there is no support for going to the next step in building the "next" generation car.

How do you cater to the mass market? Make it fast, make it affordable, appeal to the majority, and have a huge amount of support for it.


until the entire industry is overhauled (meaning stop producing gasoline supported engines) the alternative energy vehicle will not be a reality (meaning that its affordable and everyone can own one). That also means that "gas stations" will need to be refueling stations (as in power or alternative fuel).
 
Let me kill it for you- i work all over the Oil/Gas industry. They laugh at it. The technology doesnt work. They didnt have to do anything but sit back and watch it die on its own. What has been produced- the market at large doesnt want.

What are your thoughts on the Chevy Volt?

My take on it is this - Price point is too high for middle class consumers. It might see some modest sales in the upper and middle class enviro-conscious set. The 40 mile range is a little off putting, although it's telling that they haven't completely relied on the Li-Ion battery back for power, and it has an IC engine to extend the range to the order of 300 miles.

Do you think this model is going to tank?
 
What are your thoughts on the Chevy Volt?

My take on it is this - Price point is too high for middle class consumers. It might see some modest sales in the upper and middle class enviro-conscious set. The 40 mile range is a little off putting, although it's telling that they haven't completely relied on the Li-Ion battery back for power, and it has an IC engine to extend the range to the order of 300 miles.

Do you think this model is going to tank?

As to the model- I think its going to tank for the reasons you state plus its "new' and all that and the other buyers who want speed,performance and stuff wouldnt touch it. ( why these planners think all people think about is going to work escapes me)

As to the technology and theory of operation- I think its the only path that will ever work
 
I can probably tell you why because its the same thing we do with industrial prototype runs
How do you know this was an "industrial prototype run"?

Look, at the risk of being a twoofer, I'm just asking questions. I really don't know.

Leasing keeps the owner of the product and its technology in ownership control as well as maintenance/evaluations and such- they need that for evaluation.
I don't believe this. Any company that wanted to compete could lease one and reverse engineer the whole thing. Once it's on the market, the owner has lost control of the technology. Maybe not the patent but the technology is no longer under anyone's "control".

As to destruction- same reasons. It keeps their technology from being obtained, it also keeps their product from being modified then something bad happens ( bad press) ( especially from something considered "failed")
Same response. Competitors "obtained" the technology the day it went up for lease.
 
I'm going to say alternate power generation capability because I do not believe it is even possible to build a "battery" that will equal what you can get from a fill up in terms of time,cost, support infrastructure. Not now or ever.
This analysis is absolutely correct under current market/regulatory conditions. But those conditions are not likely to persist so the conclusion may become less sure. For example, if the price of oil goes to $200/gallon (for whatever reason) your conclusion fails. If environmental laws driven by global warming concerns become more restrictive, your conclusion fails.

"Not now or ever" is a foolish position to take. Ask the buggy whip manufacturers.
 
How do you know this was an "industrial prototype run"?

Look, at the risk of being a twoofer, I'm just asking questions. I really don't know.


I don't believe this. Any company that wanted to compete could lease one and reverse engineer the whole thing. Once it's on the market, the owner has lost control of the technology. Maybe not the patent but the technology is no longer under anyone's "control".


Same response. Competitors "obtained" the technology the day it went up for lease.

How do you know this was an "industrial prototype run"?

Look, at the risk of being a twoofer, I'm just asking questions. I really don't know.

I "know it" because I'm an Engineer and this is how the process works because i DO it( for a living).

You have a radical new design ( no predecessor) with new technologies in it. It has to have a market run in controlled circumstances because since you dont have histories and longevity- you have to make it.

You have to know performance histories, what works, doesnt, fails prematurely, glitches and everything else. All industries do this.

I don't believe this. Any company that wanted to compete could lease one and reverse engineer the whole thing. Once it's on the market, the owner has lost control of the technology. Maybe not the patent but the technology is no longer under anyone's "control".

Its correct whether you believe it or not. Thats how it works

Same response. Competitors "obtained" the technology the day it went up for lease

see above
 
How do you cater to the mass market? Make it fast, make it affordable, appeal to the majority, and have a huge amount of support for it.
I just want to point out the error here. You are assuming that the mass market wants "fast". I know you do and others as well. The fallacy is that the mass market wants fast because you want fast. Can you point to any evidence that "fast" is an important criterion for current/future car buyers?
 
This analysis is absolutely correct under current market/regulatory conditions. But those conditions are not likely to persist so the conclusion may become less sure. For example, if the price of oil goes to $200/gallon (for whatever reason) your conclusion fails. If environmental laws driven by global warming concerns become more restrictive, your conclusion fails.

"Not now or ever" is a foolish position to take. Ask the buggy whip manufacturers.

The market doesnt have anything to do with it. I'm speaking from a detailed knowledge of the industry and its technology so unless and until you find some loopholes in the laws of thermodynamics and make some additions to the periodic table- theres a limit to what type of battery you can build thats small enough to be usable for the desired size.
 
Who needs to cater to the mass market when you can make electric cars that are this good?

I want one. Nowhere near being able to afford one but hey.

I'd love to see some kind of alternative powered car that doesn't burn oil. Until either oil prices get much higher, or some kind of new technology is worked out that can power a car cheaper and better than oil does, it's not going to happen.

Hydrogen fuel cars look promising presently. I'd *love* to see some kind of zero point energy technology developed, but I'm certainly not going to hold my breath for that.
 
Riiight. You'll excuse me for ignoring any further contributions you may chose to make to this thread.

Consider yourself excused because you obviously dont understand the technology being discussed and how it works.

The "market' be damned- if the properties of the materials and chemical reactions within a given range wont do it-theres not much else anyone can do regardless of the market or need.

There are many devices now we know can be built if we had the technology and materials to do it.

Using this as an example ( hidden note for those who read beyond the obvious)- these new cars are being market as sports cars or commuting cars.

Heres why ( what we discovered too) This is trying to make a low weight, low PAYLOAD ( forget stuffing the family and trunk for a long ride and dont ask for the pick up or towing package) to get what they advertise.

As weight/drag goes up- performance drops drastically.

Another problem for the battery only and small battery hybrid.

Remember that cause-effect thing- part of what they arent telling you about them and a major factor in their selling.
 
GM sells cars, not oil. At least not directly.

Can you imagine the benefits to the Auto Industry were it to go gas-free? Emissions standards? Gone. Efficiency standards? Gone. Having your success depend on the whims of Middle Eastern dictators? Gone. And that's just long term.

Short term, if you were the first out of the gate, you could pretty much set your price. Your service department would be rake it in because at least initially the corner mechanic would have no clue how to fix it. And as the technology became standardized, everyone would have to buy a new car.

I just don't think there is incentive there for GM to protect a commodity it doesn't produce.
 
I can't tell you how to make an electric car. I can tell you how to make an electric car simulator:

Remove the big gas tank and replace it with one that holds two gallons. Bolt on ballast to the weight of the battery technology you're using. Fill up enough volume in the car to simulate the density of the battery technology you're using.
Use hypodermic tubing for the tank filler neck, so that it will only pass about a quart an hour.

Enjoy.
 
For the mass of suburban commuters the first and third are not usually a problem. Most commutes are around 40 miles and the car sits the garage overnight anyway. There should have been a mass market for it.

Only if you expect people to have maybe two cars. Or to never do anything with their car than commute in a 40 mile radius, that is.
 
But if I had the option to buy a vehicle I could plug in every night and drive to and from work every day? Hell yes, I'd take it.

Unfortunately this is where electric cars really fall down, for a reason that their proponents never seem to consider. There simply isn't that much electricity available. Transport accounts for a significant proportion of our total energy usage - according to this it's around 35%. If everyone suddenly stops using oil and starts trying to charge their cars at home, the entire electricity grid would collapse.

It's not enough for car manufacturers to produce a decent electric car, it also needs something like 50% more power stations and some serious upgrades to the grid to allow that kind of heavy, continuous domestic use. This is even more of a problem than people might think, since the UK, for example, is currently struggling to generate enough power to satisfy current demand and has no chance of coping with an increase on that scale.

Are hydrogen fuel cells workable, or are they still too large, expensive, and inefficient?

Fuel cells are viable from the point of view of weight. Hydrogen is not as energy dense as petrol, but it can be a lot better than batteries. However, it has plenty of its own problems. The biggest one is that hydrogen is not all that safe. It may not be as dangerous as some people claim, but putting tanks of it in the hands of every idiot in the country, especially ones crashing in to each other at 70mph, is not necessarily the best idea. There's also the big problem of infrastructure, since hydrogen is a lot trickier to work with and cart around the place than oil.

Limited resources are also a problem. Most fuel cells currently require rare elements like platinum. It's not just that it's expensive, there just isn't that much of it available once you start trying to put it in things like cars.

Oh...one point I'd like to make. The film states that the oil industry "suppressed" the company making the NiMH batteries. Not having seen it in depth, I defer here. What could he be talking about?

No idea. I assume he's claiming that since the NiMH batteries were not available as soon as originally hoped, that means someone must have done it on purpose. Classic conspiracy thinking really.

GM sells cars, not oil. At least not directly.

This is just about the best counter to conspiracy claims. However, it's actually even better than that. Not only are companies like GM not actually involved with oil and have no interest in suppressing technology that would allow them to sell more cars, the companies that actually are involved with oil are generally the ones best placed to take advantage of new energy technology. They already have a lot of the infrastructure, contacts and so on to make things work, and they certainly have the money to invest in things. In fact, they're often the ones actually developing it. If a company like BP or Shell knew of some brilliant new technology that would solve all our energy problems they wouldn't cover it up, they'd use it to wipe their competitors off the map.

I'd love to see some kind of alternative powered car that doesn't burn oil. Until either oil prices get much higher, or some kind of new technology is worked out that can power a car cheaper and better than oil does, it's not going to happen.

Hydrogen fuel cars look promising presently.

And the hydrogen comes from where? This is the problem with all this sort of thing. Trying to get away from fossil fuels is all very well, but at the moment the only thing it will be replaced by is fossil fuels. If you have electric cars, you need to generate electricity. If you have hydrogen cars you need to generate hydrogen.

That sort of thing is certainly a step in the right direction, since you can then slowly switch your electricity generation to renewables, nuclear and so on. But it's not an answer in itself. You don't save the environment by changing from burning oil in your car to burning coal down the road.
 
And the hydrogen comes from where? This is the problem with all this sort of thing. Trying to get away from fossil fuels is all very well, but at the moment the only thing it will be replaced by is fossil fuels. If you have electric cars, you need to generate electricity. If you have hydrogen cars you need to generate hydrogen.

That sort of thing is certainly a step in the right direction, since you can then slowly switch your electricity generation to renewables, nuclear and so on. But it's not an answer in itself. You don't save the environment by changing from burning oil in your car to burning coal down the road.

Hydrogen comes from water via electrolysis as an alternative to taking it from methane? Yes I know presently it's way too expensive to do that and extracting it from other fossil fuels is the preferred method. It doesn't *have* to come from fossil fuel though. Also I don't mean that hydrogen fuelled cars will replace oil fuelled cars, more that pursuing hydrogen fuel technology will lead onto other better technologies, like perhaps a much more efficient way to split water.

I agree that electic cars are a non starter cos you are shifting where the oil is burnt to some other place. Not to mention that we just don't have anything like the infrastrucure to cope with increased power demands.

I think the future lies, or the nearer future at least, in replacing oil with synthetic oil from designer microbes in large vats a la LS9. I'm surprised there isn't a large fast food chain that is recycling it's waste fryer oil into biodiesel and making a big thing out of it. Tho I think growing crops like corn purely for biodiesel is a non starter as well.

It's going to take a huge scientific jump forwards in our collective understanding to produce non-fossil fuel powered cars that are comparable or better than present day cars.
 
What are your thoughts on the Chevy Volt?

My take on it is this - Price point is too high for middle class consumers. It might see some modest sales in the upper and middle class enviro-conscious set. The 40 mile range is a little off putting, although it's telling that they haven't completely relied on the Li-Ion battery back for power, and it has an IC engine to extend the range to the order of 300 miles.

Do you think this model is going to tank?

It will tank, not so much for the price point but the ridiculous 260mpg rating the feds plan on giving it and GM is bragging about.

In reality it will get around 100mpg, if used as the 40 mile a day commuter car, when the customer sees they are getting less than ½ the expected fuel economy they will not be happy.

Only GM could sell a 100 miles to the gallon car and piss people off about the fuel economy it gets.
 

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