Really?
Here is what Kurzweil predicted in 1999 for 2009. Think how many of these things sounded nutty ten years ago:
1. Work groups are dispersed. People are successfully working together despite living in different places. (My job, among many others)
2. Average household has more than 100 computers -- that is, chips, -- most of which are embedded in appliances, entertainment and telephone systems, automobiles and even key chains. (Count all the colored lights in your house. And yes, USB on my keychain has a chip, and more memory than most computers in 1999)
3. Household robots have emerged but are not yet fully accepted. (Pretty good description of Roomba/Scooba)
4. Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. They allow you to sit back and relax after your car's smart cruise control locks onto road's sensors. (Failed on this one)
5. Local roads though are still conventional. (grin)
6. Privacy has emerged as a major political issue. (Read all of this thread. Hmmm....)
7. There is a growing anti-technology neo-Luddite movement. (Yep. In fact, the person I am replying to is an example, at least as far as genetic engineering is concerned)
8. There is a continuing concern with an underclass being left behind by a lack of skill, although the size of this underclass appears to be stable, since most people seem to be keeping up. (This is just spookily accurate)
9. Most visual art -- especially performance art, photography an video -- are collaboration between human and their software. (Not so much performance art, but photography an video are definitely getting there)
10. Human musicians routinely jam with computer-generated musicians. (Partial fail. Happens, but very rarely)
11. Those who wish to create music no longer absolutely need the fine finger coordination of traditional pianists and guitarists. (True, but tools which make it possible are still expensive and not widespread)
12. There is a surge of interest in new "air" controllers in which you create music by moving your hands, feet and other body parts. (Wiiiii!!!)
13. Virtual reality is convincing in terms of what you see and hear, although transmitting sense of touch is still rocky. (Off by a few years. But is getting close)
14. In fact, creation of virtual reality environments is a form being addressed by artist. (Not yet)
15. Wars are decided by those who have the best and most secure computers. (Would have been true if wars were still fought between countries. Failure in predicting geopolitics, not technology)
16. Most conflicts are not between nations but between nations and terrorists. (Entirely true, although at odds with #15. Failure to fully imagine asymmetrical warfare)
17. The greatest threat to national security comes from bioengineered weapons. (Hard to say)
18. Cancer and heart disease mortality is being reduced by bioengineering. (Partial failure. It is being reduced, but mostly by other means)
19. There is serious speculation as to whether computers will ever be conscious. (In all fairness, there were already serious speculations on this topic in 1999)
If most of these points now seem to you "well, duh!", I repeat -- think of how things were in 1999, and how would all of them look to you then.
With this kind of record, I am inclined to take Kurzweil's predictions seriously.
