What did Democrats do wrong?

[johnny karate]

Work on your sales pitch. Electoral votes are for closers.

The sales pitch was conspiracy theory-fueled grievance. I guess this gets us closer to figuring out what Democrats did wrong: They should have surrendered their values and given up any pretense of serious governance just like Republicans did.

 

[Olmstead]

Work on your sales pitch. Electoral votes are for closers.

Are you listening to me? The man is undercutting my Honda Civics with Ferraris. What sort of sales pitch will beat that?

 

[TragicMonkey]

I think it's entirely fair. Nobody blames the customer when the salesman can't make a sale.

"So, you want a realistic, down to earth show, that's completely off the wall and swarming with magic robots?"

That's what the customer wants. Deliver it! And remember: it's your fault if the customer rejects your efforts.

 

[theprestige]

If the customer doesn’t want to buy the perfectly normal thing the salesman is selling because they’d rather have a flaming bag of dog ◊◊◊◊, the problem might be with the customer.

If only the Democrats had thought to steal the Glengarry leads...

 

[Thermal]

Literally two thirds of eligible voters: "I despise my opposite number and will vote against them at all costs, because if I don't, I invalidate my entire internal identity".

The other third of the nation: *double finger guns*

 

[thaiboxerken]

It is interesting that the Magat's in the forum are saying that democrats biggest mistakes were, essentially, being not nice to maga. I wonder if they think they have jedi mind powers.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

It is interesting that the Magat's in the forum are saying that democrats biggest mistakes were, essentially, being not nice to maga. I wonder if they think they have jedi mind powers.

*gestures with hand*
They *do* have jedi mind powers.

 

[Louden Wilde]

Yes, because if there’s anything that Trump voters hate it’s vitriol and identity politics. Just absolute topnotch analysis.

These were presumably not inherently Trump voters she was after - rather old-school Rs, independents. You think if she'd played those things up she would have done better?

 

[d4m10n]

And I reserve the right to be skeptical of any transformations.

We don't need them to be born again as enlightened liberals, we need them to vote against the GOP next time around.

The data aren't in for 2024 yet, but swing voters were probably determinative in previous cycles.

In 2020, there were even fewer swing voters than in 2016. However, it appears that swing voters favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by about a two-to-one margin. Moreover, exit poll data confirm that swing voters tilted toward Biden in several key swing states. In Georgia, 6% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 3% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump. In Pennsylvania, 7% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 4% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump. Finally, in both Michigan and Wisconsin, 6% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 4% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump.[2] These differences seem small, but given the closeness of the 2020 presidential election in all of these states, they might have been large enough to shift their electoral votes from Trump to Biden and that would have been enough to change the outcome of the election in the Electoral College.​

Democrat Party strategists cannot afford to write off swing voters who've ever voted for Trump as stupid and/or uneducable, as has been suggested upthread. Those sentiments may feel good when licking your wounds from an electoral drubbing, but giving in to that sort of thinking will make the next drubbing even worse.

 

[johnny karate]

If only the Democrats had thought to steal the Glengarry leads...

Haha it's funny because children are going to die.

 

[johnny karate]

These were presumably not inherently Trump voters she was after - rather old-school Rs, independents. You think if she'd played those things up she would have done better?

I think when you're dealing with people who willingly chose conspiracy theories about migrants eating pets and anti-vaxxerism, I don't think there's anything you can offer them to make them choose otherwise.

 

[johnny karate]

We don't need them to be born again as enlightened liberals, we need them to vote against the GOP next time around.

The data aren't in for 2024 yet, but swing voters were probably determinative in previous cycles.

In 2020, there were even fewer swing voters than in 2016. However, it appears that swing voters favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by about a two-to-one margin. Moreover, exit poll data confirm that swing voters tilted toward Biden in several key swing states. In Georgia, 6% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 3% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump. In Pennsylvania, 7% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 4% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump. Finally, in both Michigan and Wisconsin, 6% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden while only 4% of 2016 Clinton voters switched to Trump.[2] These differences seem small, but given the closeness of the 2020 presidential election in all of these states, they might have been large enough to shift their electoral votes from Trump to Biden and that would have been enough to change the outcome of the election in the Electoral College.​

Democrat Party strategists cannot afford to write off swing voters who've ever voted for Trump as stupid and/or uneducable, as has been suggested upthread. Those sentiments may feel good when licking your wounds from an electoral drubbing, but giving in to that sort of thinking will make the next drubbing even worse.

No one said to write them off. The question is how to get through to them. Meanwhile, you're over in fantasyland pretending that they didn't vote for what they explicitly voted for, under the impression that is somehow a good place to start.

 

[dirtywick]

i'm sure there was people that voted trump just because they felt like the economy was bad.

we'll see how they're feeling in a couple of years. it's shaping up to be a ◊◊◊◊ show.

 

[d4m10n]

Meanwhile, you're over in fantasyland pretending that they didn't vote for what they explicitly voted for, under the impression that is somehow a good place to start.

It is irrational to assume anyone voted for every single plank of a politician's platform, especially when some planks implicitly contradict other ones. If you want to know which issues swing voters cared about most, go to the data instead of trusting your gut.

 

[Louden Wilde]

I think when you're dealing with people who willingly chose conspiracy theories about migrants eating pets and anti-vaxxerism, I don't think there's anything you can offer them to make them choose otherwise.

I agree that there's a good chunk of this group that are not reachable. So - I think the choice boils down to trying to reach those that are persuadable or assessing how to best dissolve the US (at least into a looser coalition of more independent states) sans bloodshed.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

It is interesting that the Magat's in the forum are saying that democrats biggest mistakes were, essentially, being not nice to maga. I wonder if they think they have jedi mind powers.

This cartoon is about a different topic, but still appropriate:

 

[johnny karate]

It is irrational to assume anyone voted for every single plank of a politician's platform, especially when some planks implicitly contradict other ones. If you want to know which issues swing voters cared about most, go to the data instead of trusting your gut.

You keep framing this like we're talking about tax policy. These people voted to undermine public health and put all our lives in danger. Whether they voted for that specifically or just simply didn't care enough to not vote for it doesn't matter.

 

[johnny karate]

I agree that there's a good chunk of this group that are not reachable. So - I think the choice boils down to trying to reach those that are persuadable or assessing how to best dissolve the US (at least into a looser coalition of more independent states) sans bloodshed.

Like I said before, the best hope we have is that the coming chaos and misery impacts enough of them negatively enough to make a difference. For the rest, I guess we'll just have to wait for them to die from whatever infectious disease they refuse to get vaccinated against.

 

[Trausti]

You keep framing this like we're talking about tax policy. These people voted to undermine public health and put all our lives in danger. Whether they voted for that specifically or just simply didn't care enough to not vote for it doesn't matter.

Wait, did you vote for the party the refuses to deport illegals convicted of sex crimes?

158 House Democrats vote against deporting sex offenders

 

[johnny karate]

Wait, did you vote for the party the refuses to deport illegals convicted of sex crimes?

158 House Democrats vote against deporting sex offenders

Here's a Trump voter who bafflingly thinks ICE doesn't deport illegals convicted of sex crimes, so they voted for an anti-vaxxer to be put in charge of public health. If only Democrats had calibrated their messaging on inflation, perhaps they could have gotten this vote.