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'What about building 7'?

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First you said
...the odds are very low...
then 9 minutes later you changed that to
...There is no chance...

You realize that there is an important difference* between 0>p>>0,5 and p=0, right?
So which is it, very low odds, or zero odds? And how exactly did you calculate the odds?




* In case you don't realize what's the important difference: The odds of an event that actually happened are p=1 ex post, even if the odds ex ante were exceedingly small.
 
First you said

then 9 minutes later you changed that to


You realize that there is an important difference* between 0>p>>0,5 and p=0, right?
So which is it, very low odds, or zero odds? And how exactly did you calculate the odds?




* In case you don't realize what's the important difference: The odds of an event that actually happened are p=1 ex post, even if the odds ex ante were exceedingly small.

This post shows some level of desperation to maintain an unsupportable belief on your part Oystein.

It is obvious to anyone thinking rationally that the terms "very low odds" and "no chance" are essentially synonymous figures of speech.

Very low odds is something like your chances of hitting the lottery, to most that means no chance.
 
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Best and brightest....

Do you care to tell us what caused the vehicle fires if you don't think it was thermite?

It seems your fellow natural cause collapse believers are in a dilemma here because they don't have a plausible answer other than thermite.
 
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Do you care to tell us what caused the vehicle fires if you don't think it was thermite?

It seems your fellow natural cause collapse believers here don't have an answer that has any real merit other than thermite.

How about fire causing fires ?

Just out of interest how do you ignite thermite ?
 
How about fire causing fires ?

How about "no flaming nothing" starting the fires. How about merely physical damage.

There were circuit breakers on every floor of every multi-story buildings in which I've worked. In every single circuit breaker box, there are BY DEFINITION wires that are up-circuit from the circuit breakers.

People that demo floors of buildings, especially buildings which are still in use, are very careful to address the issue of "live AC lines" before taking sledgehammers, sawz-all, etc. to the walls.

Even tho the power grid may have been out (I believe this to be true), there were numerous AC backup systems, from the emergency generators (any word on their status?) down to individual UPS power backups for computers sitting under peoples desks. Any of these are perfectly capable of starting a fire, if a wrecking ball or 10 ton girder passes thru them.

Just out of interest how do you ignite thermite ?

How do you have burning thermite, which emits light bright enough to burn retinas & burn out unprotected video cam optical chips, emerge from the towers to cross ANY distance, much less the distance from the towers to WTC7, and NOT BE SEEN by any one of the 100+ cameras taking video & photos from every direction possible?

Is it ninja stealth supernanothermite now?

Besides, it's all a fantasy.
Nobody was welding railroad tracks in those buildings. Nobody was fabricating fireworks in those buildings. There was essentially zero thermite in any of those buildings.

"Thermite or arson" is a preposterous joke.
 
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No, there is logic in what I am saying on why the fires in WTC 7 could not have been caused by the natural fires in the North Tower.

There is no logic to it at all, and jaydeehess has explained it just above.

Absence of flame doesn't mean material temperatures are below combustion point for other materials. I prove this on a regular basis when I toss bits of waste paper in a woodstove where the flames went out hours before.
 
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This post shows some level of desperation to maintain an unsupportable belief on your part Oystein.

It is obvious to anyone thinking rationally that the terms "very low odds" and "no chance" are essentially synonymous figures of speech.

Very low odds is something like your chances of hitting the lottery, to most that means no chance.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy looming around the corner.

After I won the lottery, it doesn't matter how slim the odds were before.
AND there is someone winning the lottery every week. It is an event that's actually quite certain to happen.

You are the one who seems desperate:
  • You know there were hot embers and active flames
  • Flames spreading from building to building are a classic concern of every fire fighting inccident
  • You know WTC7 caught fire
  • The null hypothesis must therefore be that fires caused fires
  • You have not even tried yet to calculate the odds - you just say something plucked from your imagination.

It almost feels like you know damned well your years of truthing have been in vain as you were wrong all along.

It is hard to let go.
But it will be a liberation.
Try it one day!
 
What do you think caused the vehicle fires?
If the cars were set on fire by thermite as you suggested. Then you should be able to show us at least one photo of a car with a hole melted through its metal skin where the thermite landed.

Good luck.

Wile I got you here, posted this over at Metabunk:

Tony Szamboti said:
There is not a person here who who has provided a sound scientific basis for getting a passport out of the south side of WTC 1 and two blocks south, where it is alleged to have been found by an anonymous person and handed to a detective.

I can answer that for you, it's simple. Would you like me to start a new thread here and explain it to you.
 
Do you care to tell us what caused the vehicle fires if you don't think it was thermite?

It seems your fellow natural cause collapse believers are in a dilemma here because they don't have a plausible answer other than thermite.

I once watched a car fire in a parking lot........the car in the next space, untouched by the flames of the burning vehicle, started burning about 15 minutes after the flames were noticed in the first car. No thermite involved.

It seems that no matter what subject troofers are ill informed on......the conclusion is always CD / thermite :rolleyes:
 
if Tony's posts are indication of anything, it's a demonstration of why an appeal to authority is such a fallacy.
 
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It is obvious to anyone thinking rationally that the terms "very low odds" and "no chance" are essentially synonymous figures of speech.

But it is an important tenet of statistical probability that they are not. You were asked to provide some meat behind your estimates of probability. Your carelessness with the language suggests you didn't actually compute a probability, but instead just used statistical language to express a wild guess. And your subjective guesswork isn't a compelling argument.

I'm going to ask again. Who are these "people thinking rationally" and the people to whom your correctness is "clear" that you refer to? The way I read it, the vast majority of the relevant professions disagree with you and your claims. Hence to label them all irrational seems premature chest-thumping. The methods with which you disagree have been published and peer-reviewed in the appropriate mainstream professional journals. What have you done with your disputation besides shop it around in popular venues? Might your characterization of the audience be a bit askew?
 
Chris, photos of the gash on the SW corner of WTC 7 is mostly viewed from the west and it is low in the building. I would say there is a possibility that thermite from the North Tower could explain the fires on floors 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13. However, there were also fires on floors 19, 22, 29, and 30 that the gash on the SW corner can't explain.

Additionally, there were not 6 to 7 fully engulfed one acre floors in the North Tower when it collapsed and much of what there was happened to be on the opposite side of the building from WTC 7 when it collapsed. Proof of that is the famous photo of Edna Citron standing in the big hole in the north face before the collapse.

The natural fires in the North Tower would have been doused by gypsum, photos of major debris show it fairly close to the building, and WTC 7 was 350 feet away from the North Tower (that is a long way to go for anything major). There is little chance debris from the natural fires in it caused the fires in WTC 7. It is a serious stretch with no basis to say otherwise.

Thermite from the Towers is very likely to have been the cause for the vehicle fires. Do you have a different answer for that issue?
Tony,

Have you seen the satellite images of 9/11 smoke visible from outer space? The plume of smoke coming out of the Towers looked like about the length of Manhattan. I did say six acres worth of fire and embers (I know this was a rapidly moving and burning fire), and at least six floors of one acre each had fire damage by the time the buildings collapsed. The amount of unfought fire was tremendous (one hose on the bottom burning floor that firefighters could get to, everything else an uninterrupted inferno), I think maybe the fastest-gowing in building fire history. Yes, parts of the fire were burning out, but I can't take seriously your efforts to minimize the size of that natural fire.

As for the cars... are you saying that there is no possibility that cars parked next to a raging fire would not have any flaming debris hit them? Or more importantly, what evidence do you have that thermite burned those cars? Do the cars have the kind of damage you see here, where thermite burned all the way through an engine block? And then when the thermite burned through the back of the car and burned right into the gas tank, the whole car exploded! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdCsbZf1_Ng Notice too, that there's blobs of elemental iron left behind. Did someone collect the residue from the cars near WTC to find evidence of thermite? Are there pictures of gaping holes in the cars where each piece of thermite burned all the way through the cars? Or maybe, just maybe, one of the biggest office fires in history dropped some burning debris on cars, not causing holes from top to bottom as thermite eats through an entire engine block, or blowing up car after car.

Asfor Building 7, I go with the hypothesis that with over seven hours of unfought fires in Building Seven, the fires had plenty of time to spread to multiple floors. Since I hired Jim Millette to test for thermite in the red-grey chips and he found none, and there is no post-thermite debris at WTC, no evidence of thermite damage at the end of the broken columns, and no satellite images of temperatures above 1400F in the debris. Also, there are no water explosions from the millions of gallons of water the firefighters poured onto the hot debris pile. Here's what happens when you mix water and a relatively small amount of molten steel: it explodes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_HvLvcTMUQ. That did NOT happen when the firefighters poured all that water on the fires. They were worried it might, but it didn't happen. I just can't see evidence of thermite. This is why NIST didn't look for it. Because they followed the evidence, and the evidence did NOT point to thermite in any way. With literally hundreds of experiencced controlled demolition people scouring through the debris (hired because they knew how to navigate a debris pile of a collapsed building), not ONE of these experienced experts or blue-collar workers in the field found one shred of evidence for thermite. The one positive piece of evidence you had was the thermitic dust study, which is why I focused on that to see if the test for thermite was for real. It's not. The rest--thermitic arson, cars burnbed by thermite instead of plain old flaming debris, etc. is speculation with no evidence at all.

And both Crazy Chainsaw and I have said that gypsum dust floating in the the air can't smother a fire. You say it can. Would you agree that in regular office fires, there is lots of gypsum dust from the drywall and cubicles on every floor? Based on your theory, firefighters would have nothing to worry about. Gypsum dust would just put the fires out for them.
 
It is clear that the only choices for the cause of the fires in WTC 7 are thermite from the North Tower or arson. Take your pick because one of these two is reality.
Only in the fevered imagination of persons starting from a prejudiced conclusion of vast complex conspiracy by a shadowy group bent on global domination..

There is no chance natural embers (which were being doused with gypsum dust) or hot steel from the small number of fire floors in the North Tower flew all the way over to WTC 7 and got in the small number of openings and started fires on ten floors. Thermite in the dust from the North Tower could have done it.

Hot material doused with hot gypsum dust is still going to be hot. However let's examine it a bit. We have say a portion of an office desk burning away on the 90th floor of WTC1. Collapse ensues and the large amount of gypsum dust cuts off oxygen to this desk as it is being ejected from the building. You further note that dust density at the distance of WTC7 would be such that oxygen levels would again allow combustion. We also know of a few persons caught in the dust cloud much closer who survived by diving under vehicles. So dust density at ground level where the dust would be at its heaviest( it is the result of all 110 storeys of drywall) is still not sufficient to asphyxiate a human. So even IF gypsum dust on the 90th floor , at the moment of collapse, is enough to cause combustion to halt, there exists a distance from the office desk's original location at which oxygen levels are again such that it can reignite if it is still above ignition temp.
Your affirmative claim is that this material cannot reignite between its original location and WTC7. So far you have only your personal incredulity, and prejudiced conclusion of vast conspiracy to back this up.

That is in addition to your inability to back your claims that combusting material would have had that combustion halted due to flying gypsum dust, and your claim that hot embers or material from WTC1 could not reach WTC7, nor your claim that thermite was in the towers at all let alone in great enough quantity to ignite fires all around the WTC complex plus bring down the towers plus (another claim by truthers, perhaps not you) keep the underground hot for weeks, nor the fantastical fiction of arson spooks.
 
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... and then there is the distinct possibility of a crushed electronic device in offices in WTC7 causing a fire.

BTW I asked earlier if there is a comparison between window damage to the Verizon and Post Office buildings, versus that of WTC7. Strikes me that it's not really needed since we already know that #7 suffered much greater structural damage from WTC1 debris than those two buildings did. Stands to reason then that it also suffered much more window damage. Thus much greater influx of debris into the building, and much greater damage to offices in WTC7 than in its neighbours.
 
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Out of curiosity, where do you think all this Thermite was stored, and how do you think it was placed in position?

So, not only did the bad guys manage to make WTC 1 damage WTC 7 without disrupting the carefully arranged charges, in a feat that has never been close to duplicated before or since, but they also managed to direct the collapse of 1 in a way that it would set 7 on fire in a very precise manner, which we have also never seen the like of.

Which Tony claims is actually more plausible than a building on fire collapsing in a way that it set another, smaller building on fire. Apparently, bits of a collapsing 1,800 ft tower can't move 350 ft.
 
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