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Vaccine/autism CT discussion

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Clayton Moore said:
If pretty much everyone else was vaccinated how did she manage to get all that stuff?
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I'm glad you asked that question Clayton. It depends to a great extent on this: whether pretty much everyone else was vaccinated... and what "pretty much everyone else" means. For example, with measles if "pretty much everyone else" means, say, 85% then your question is easily answered. Measles is very infectious and you need around 95% of the population to be immunised to ensure herd immunity. If uptake is 85% you're going to have plenty of unvaccinated people around to give each other measles.

Wikipedia has an informative article on the 'basic reproduction number': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproductive_number
In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive rate, basic reproductive ratio and denoted R0, r nought) of an infection is the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population.[4]
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The 'basic reproduction number' for various diseases is given in the article. For measles, it is 12-18. From this number, you can calculate the proportion of the population that needs to be immunised to achieve herd immunity (assuming that vaccine uptake is consistent across the country*). 1-1/12 gives you .9166 (which rounds off to 92%) and 1-1/18 gives you .9444 (which rounds off to 94%). The calculation is referred to in this article: http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/7/911.full and you can see that the Wiki article on herd immunity gives a figure of 92-94% for measles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity. So if the proportion of the population immunised is below this level, measles can be transmitted within the population - generally between people who are unvaccinated.

[*Just as an aside: A further point to consider is that in any given country, there might be pockets of unvaccinated people - for example in England and Wales in 2009 vaccine uptake was 85% and uptake of the booster shot was 78%, but in several London boroughs uptake was around 50% or less (Brent was 32%).]
 
jdc324 said:
I'm glad you asked that question Clayton. It depends to a great extent on this: whether pretty much everyone else was vaccinated... and what "pretty much everyone else" means. For example, with measles if "pretty much everyone else" means, say, 85% then your question is easily answered. Measles is very infectious and you need around 95% of the population to be immunised to ensure herd immunity. If uptake is 85% you're going to have plenty of unvaccinated people around to give each other measles.

Wikipedia has an informative article on the 'basic reproduction number': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproductive_number The 'basic reproduction number' for various diseases is given in the article. For measles, it is 12-18. From this number, you can calculate the proportion of the population that needs to be immunised to achieve herd immunity (assuming that vaccine uptake is consistent across the country*). 1-1/12 gives you .9166 (which rounds off to 92%) and 1-1/18 gives you .9444 (which rounds off to 94%). The calculation is referred to in this article: http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/7/911.full and you can see that the Wiki article on herd immunity gives a figure of 92-94% for measles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity. So if the proportion of the population immunised is below this level, measles can be transmitted within the population - generally between people who are unvaccinated.

[*Just as an aside: A further point to consider is that in any given country, there might be pockets of unvaccinated people - for example in England and Wales in 2009 vaccine uptake was 85% and uptake of the booster shot was 78%, but in several London boroughs uptake was around 50% or less (Brent was 32%).]
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I do believe these statistics apply to the general case. A given unvaccinated individual only needs to encounter a single case of the virus by whatever transmission route works, and we also may never know exactly what the transmission path was, since we are dealing with microscopic vectors of disease.
 
LSSBB said:
I do believe these statistics apply to the general case. A given unvaccinated individual only needs to encounter a single case of the virus by whatever transmission route works, and we also may never know exactly what the transmission path was, since we are dealing with microscopic vectors of disease.
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Yes, sorry LSSBB. You're quite right - while herd immunity will prevent outbreaks of measles and reduce the likelihood of an individual catching measles it won't prevent individual cases of the disease occurring.

Even if I were the only unvaccinated person in my village, for example, it would only take one encounter with a visitor who had measles to infect me. In fact, I think there may be recent examples of British people with measles infecting unvaccinated individuals abroad. Not an export we can be proud of.
 
National Vaccine Information Center
Pamela Byers Felice shared "How's this for a link between MMR vaccine and autism? Keep in mind Myelin damage is known to co-exist in autism.
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http://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/acute_encephalomyelitis/acute_encephalomyelitis.htm



What is Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis?

Acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) is characterized by a brief but widespread attack of inflammation in the brain and spinal cord that damages myelin – the protective covering of nerve fibers. ADEM often follows viral or bacterial infections, or less often, vaccination for measles, mumps, or rubella. The symptoms of ADEM appear rapidly, beginning with encephalitis-like symptoms such as fever, fatigue, headache, nausea and vomiting, and in the most severe cases, seizures and coma. ADEM typically damages white matter (brain tissue that takes its name from the white color of myelin), leading to neurological symptoms such as visual loss (due to inflammation of the optic nerve) in one or both eyes, weakness even to the point of paralysis, and difficulty coordinating voluntary muscle movements (such as those used in walking). ADEM is sometimes misdiagnosed as a severe first attack of multiple sclerosis (MS), since the symptoms and the appearance of the white matter injury on brain imaging may be similar. However, ADEM has several features which differentiate it from MS. First, unlike MS patients, persons with ADEM will have rapid onset of fever, a history of recent infection or immunization, and some degree of impairment of consciousness, perhaps even coma; these features are not typically seen in MS. Children are more likely than adults to have ADEM, whereas MS is a rare diagnosis in children. In addition, ADEM usually consists of a single episode or attack of widespread myelin damage, while MS features many attacks over the course of time. Doctors will often use imaging techniques, such as MRI (magnetic resonance imaging), to search for old and new lesions (areas of damage) on the brain. The presence of older brain lesions on MRI suggest that the condition may be MS rather than ADEM, since MS can cause brain lesions before symptoms become obvious. In rare situations, a brain biopsy may be necessary to differentiate between ADEM and some other diseases that involve inflammation and damage to myelin..
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So some on going unfinished research that has not reported back yet is your evidence?

The key phrase is less often as well.

And it does not mention autism either.
 
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Just because two conditions both involve the same symptom doesn't mean one can cause the other. If you climb into a furnace, your body heat will rise; if you catch the flu, your body heat will rise. You do not catch the flu from climbing into furnaces.
 
Yerushalmi said:
Just because two conditions both involve the same symptom doesn't mean one can cause the other. If you climb into a furnace, your body heat will rise; if you catch the flu, your body heat will rise. You do not catch the flu from climbing into furnaces.
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Ironically, your furnace should have a flue.

But Yerushalmi is correct. You have linked two distinct causes because they share one of the same symptoms. A stroke can be caused by endocarditis. It can also be caused by deep vein thrombosis. This does not mean that endocarditis causes deep vein thrombosis or vice-versa.

In fact, the very source that you quote gives several possible reasons for demylenation. Is there any evidence that the incidence of ADEM is greater than the risks of an unvaccinated population?

The reference I found says: This study generated an estimate of Canadian disease incidence of 0.9 per 100,000 for ADS.

That's slightly less than one in a million. In contrast, there were 2,100 neonatal deaths from Rubella alone between 1964 and 1965 (and that's not counting tens of thousands of spontaneous miscarriages and serious disabilities). There were 3.7 million live births in the US in 1965. If there were 1,050 Rubella deaths in 1965, that's a rate of 284 deaths per million. Compare that to less than 1 case of ADEM per million - and that's generously attributing every case of ADEM to vaccinations.

So, even if ADEM is caused by vaccination, the good that vaccination does the public just in regards to Rubella alone appears to make it worthwhile.
 
ADEM often follows viral or bacterial infections, or less often, vaccination for measles, mumps, or rubella.
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Now that is interesting Clayton. Which viral or bacterial infections does ADEM often follow? Are there vaccines for those infections?
 
BNRT said:
I'm not sure that's right...
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You're correct. All instances of ADS in Canada were 0.9/100,000; instances of ADEM were 0.2/100,000. So, instead of 1 in a million, the actual number for ADEM is 2 in a million.

If we assume that every single case of ADEM was caused by vaccines, that's still 1 life of disability compared to 142 infant deaths from Rubella alone.

Thanks for catching the mistake.
 
Loss Leader said:
You're correct. All instances of ADS in Canada were 0.9/100,000; instances of ADEM were 0.2/100,000. So, instead of 1 in a million, the actual number for ADEM is 2 in a million.

If we assume that every single case of ADEM was caused by vaccines, that's still 1 life of disability compared to 142 infant deaths from Rubella alone.

Thanks for catching the mistake.
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I don't get it, if 0.9 out of a 100,000 people get ADS, that looks to me as a chance of about 1 in a 100,000, so a thouand in a million chance. Am I not seeing something?
 
BNRT said:
I don't get it, if 0.9 out of a 100,000 people get ADS, that looks to me as a chance of about 1 in a 100,000, so a thousand in a million chance. Am I not seeing something?
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100,000 X 10 = 1,000,000

0.9 X 10 = 9

Nine per million (2 per million for ADEM).
 
Dcdrac said:
So some on going unfinished research that has not reported back yet is your evidence?

The key phrase is less often as well.

And it does not mention autism either.
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Yes, a key phrase is less often.

Retaining the word OFTEN still means OFTEN.
 
jdc324 said:
Now that is interesting Clayton. Which viral or bacterial infections does ADEM often follow? Are there vaccines for those infections?
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Answering my own question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_disseminated_encephalomyelitis#Causes_and_antecedent_history

Viral infections thought to induce ADEM include influenza virus, enterovirus, measles, mumps, rubella, varicella zoster, Epstein Barr virus, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, hepatitis A, and coxsackievirus; while the bacterial infections include Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Borrelia burgdorferi, Leptospira, and beta-hemolytic Streptococci.
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So, in some cases, the infections that cause ADEM can be prevented by vaccines. I wonder whether infection or vaccination carries a higher risk of causing ADEM.

The risk of ADEM from measles vaccination is about 1 to 2 per million,[18] which is far lower than the risk of developing ADEM from an actual measles infection, which is about 1 per 1000 for measles (and 1 per 5000 for rubella).[20][26] Measles infection also appears to lead to worse ADEM outcomes than cases associated with measles immunization.
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For measles, it's 1 in a million for the vaccine and 1 in a thousand for the disease. Why, it almost looks as if vaccination might reduce the risk of ADEM by preventing infection with viral diseases such as measles, mumps and rubella. Huh.
 
Yerushalmi said:
Just because two conditions both involve the same symptom doesn't mean one can cause the other. If you climb into a furnace, your body heat will rise; if you catch the flu, your body heat will rise. You do not catch the flu from climbing into furnaces.
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*golf-clap*
 
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