US vs everyone else tradewars

[Hlafordlaes]

So, in the usual insecure bully style Trump (and the tame congress/house) are going to put even MORE tariffs on goods if a country does not bend over and takes it, but retaliates with counter tariffs as everyone with a single brain cell predicted.
Again, the US can win a trade war against most countries. But against all countries? (except Russia and it's pets?)

It's a dangerous game. As Brexit has shown, trade with nearby neighbors is not easy to replicate in favorable conditions with those farther away. A massive shift in trading patterns will take a long time to play out. But given the fact that the US is now a fully unreliable player, let us hope that EU-Canada-Latin America-Africa trade ties slowly strengthen and begin to replace lost trade.

 

[8enotto]

Canadian electric and oil already being toyed with, car parts still under threat and the Alcan highway is being closed to US traffic. Canada has been talking to the EU leaders a lot lately about taking over made goods as they can.

Mexico has already stopped imports/exports of car parts and durable goods. Ag stuff I haven't heard about yet.
Detroit car makers will be talking to Gump in no uncertain terms if it goes full blown bad.

The inflation to the peso hasn't happened this time around. It has to be decoupled from the dollar some. But for a while now to not be affected much.

The world seen him coming and prepared.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

It's interesting to see how the US blames the rest of the world for retaliating to their trade war actions.

How DARE you defend yourself and cooperate against our bullying!

 

[Random]

Good news! Trump has a solution for higher car prices due to his tariffs. Order car dealers not to raise their prices.

In a high-stakes call with top US automakers earlier this month, US President Donald Trump issued a warning: Do not raise car prices in response to his new tariffs, reported The Wall Street Journal.

According to sources familiar with the conversation, Trump cautioned executives that the White House would not look favourably on price increases. His remarks left some industry leaders concerned about possible repercussions if they moved to offset costs by raising vehicle prices.

See! It's that simple!

 

[Hlafordlaes]

It all started with manure.

The manure European farmers used to intensively cultivate crops for a densely populated continent polluted the rivers and ended access to their traditional source of protein. That led to sailing ships to fish the oceans, which led to colonialism, which led to mercantilism.

Mercantilism upended the traditional source of wealth, land ownership, and led to a growing merchant class now able to challenge the age-old power of the landed gentry. And the endless game of capital flight, revolution, more flight, reactionary recovery, flight again and so on began.

The American Revolution was about merchants revolting against paying taxes based on royal whim, freedom from monarchical power. Soon enough, the industrial revolution started leading to more sophisticated needs in governance and a more complex society, and income taxes were instituted. "Oh my coin purse, here we go again," the Benjamins and Franklins cried.

Capital sought to flee from growing rules regarding fair play, trade unions and taxes, and so backed the Hitlers, Mussolinis and Francos of their day. Ah, finally! Freedom from both royal whim and popular rule.... not! Dictators, as we see today, are far worse than the voting public or monarchs, as they have no allegiance to anyone or anything else. Capital was back where it started, under the rule of whim and an unpredictable business environment, and Hitler et al fell from grace, then power.

Back to "freedom", then. The freedom to do as capital pleases, to rule unfettered. Since 1980, taking apart the entire governmental apparatus, starting with Reagan's "government is the problem". It took a while, and now, the next Hitler. Capital flight, rinse and repeat.

It will only ever end when there is a maximum income, a 100% tax above it, strict campaign finance laws, a government that can only meet with lobbyists in open hearings before the cameras, and elected representatives who by law may not trade in securities and who must place all wealth in a blind trust while in office, never leaving for a job in any major sector for which that lawmaker has voted on legislation.

Or back to the manure.

 

[JayUtah]

Good news! Trump has a solution for higher car prices due to his tariffs. Order car dealers not to raise their prices.

It's unclear what Pres. Trump thinks he's asking for. Normally domestic suppliers have an incentive to raise their own prices when their overseas competitors' products are priced according to tariff. If the retail price of a car is 1,000 quatloos under free trade, but you slap a 500-quatloo tariff on foreign cars, the domestic suppliers have the incentive to raise their retail price to, say, 1,350 quatloos. They're still cheaper than foreign competition, but not as cheap as they would be if market forces were allowed to set the price. It sounds like Trump thinks he's asking domestic car manufacturers not to do that.

But the reality is that there is no such thing anymore as a purely domestic manufacturer of anything. U.S. automakers rely heavily on foreign materials and assemblies. The Trump administration tariffs apply to automotive parts and materials too, not just finished products. So costs will indeed go up for U.S. automakers, and now Pres. Trump is telling them they have to absorb those higher costs. This will not go over well. American businesses have recently relied on charging higher prices and blaming it on "inflation" etc. They will be reluctant to take a profit hit just to satisfy Donald Trump's ego.

 

[dirtywick]

It's unclear what Pres. Trump thinks he's asking for. Normally domestic suppliers have an incentive to raise their own prices when their overseas competitors' products are priced according to tariff. If the retail price of a car is 1,000 quatloos under free trade, but you slap a 500-quatloo tariff on foreign cars, the domestic suppliers have the incentive to raise their retail price to, say, 1,350 quatloos. They're still cheaper than foreign competition, but not as cheap as they would be if market forces were allowed to set the price. It sounds like Trump thinks he's asking domestic car manufacturers not to do that.

But the reality is that there is no such thing anymore as a purely domestic manufacturer of anything. U.S. automakers rely heavily on foreign materials and assemblies. The Trump administration tariffs apply to automotive parts and materials too, not just finished products. So costs will indeed go up for U.S. automakers, and now Pres. Trump is telling them they have to absorb those higher costs. This will not go over well. American businesses have recently relied on charging higher prices and blaming it on "inflation" etc. They will be reluctant to take a profit hit just to satisfy Donald Trump's ego.

it’s also seems pretty obvious that asking them to eat a 25% increase on even a part of their material costs without allowing to increase prices isn’t possible. maybe there’s enough in the margins to do that. but demand is going to take a hit and consumers debt and interest rates don’t really favor any help on that end.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-ceo-doug-mcmillon-says-172736560.html

relevant commentary from walmart ceo on consumer behavior.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon had also warned about consumer confidence during a Feb. 27 talk at the Economic Club of Chicago. He noted that “budget-pressured” customers were reducing their spending and showing “stressed behaviors.”

"You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone, you can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month," McMillon said.

 

[Blue Mountain]

Good news! Trump has a solution for higher car prices due to his tariffs. Order car dealers not to raise their prices.

See! It's that simple!

I started reading the article, then the site bitched at me for running an ad blocker. There's a reason I run ad-blockers: I hate the ◊◊◊◊-show that ads have turned the web into. Tell me to turn off my ad blocker and I'll tune out your site.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I started reading the article, then the site bitched at me for running an ad blocker. There's a reason I run ad-blockers: I hate the ◊◊◊◊-show that ads have turned the web into. Tell me to turn off my ad blocker and I'll tune out your site.

You need a tariff on ads. Instead of blocking them you agree to let them through but you charge 25% of whatever the site gets. Make the internet great again.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Wow, Trump is getting Japan, South Korea and China to cooperate.
Something I never thought would be possible.

Sure, it's cooperating in ensuring the US public suffers as much as possible from Trump's tariffs, but still, go USA!

 

[TragicMonkey]

Wow, Trump is getting Japan, South Korea and China to cooperate.
Something I never thought would be possible.

Sure, it's cooperating in ensuring the US public suffers as much as possible from Trump's tariffs, but still, go USA!

I'm confident that, given more time, Trump will eventually get the Israelis and Palestinians and Iranians to join forces against the US.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

So, now that it is clear the US will soon be in a trade war with all of it's biggest traders,

Maybe.

how do you think this will affect your country?

It will be a kick in the ass at first but good incentive to fixing our own problems. Energy for example. We had it good but we assisted in destroying it. Now we'll have to suck up and repair it.

 

[lionking]

The key point about World Trade is the world bit. I don’t think Australia will be badly harmed provided trading partners other than the US don’t foolishly put up trade barriers to everybody else. The GATT must survive into the future with or without the US.

 

[dirtywick]

Maybe.

It will be a kick in the ass at first but good incentive to fixing our own problems. Energy for example. We had it good but we assisted in destroying it. Now we'll have to suck up and repair it.

when did we have it good, how did we assist in destroying it, and how does this help repair it?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

The US economy and hegemony is based on an enlightened indulgence by the rest of the world, a patience for the teenagers with the nukes expecting that its leaders and population will grow up eventually.
Trump's actions clearly require some Tough Love to cure the US of it's own sense of self-importance.

 

[Pixel42]

It will be a kick in the ass at first but good incentive to fixing our own problems. Energy for example. We had it good but we assisted in destroying it. Now we'll have to suck up and repair it.

No one with any sense is going to invest in restoring American domestic industries that have been priced out of the domestic market by cheaper imports, even if Trump's tariffs do even up the playing field, because there's no guarantee those tariffs will be continued by the next administration. Or even by Trump in a few months time. Or, indeed, a few days time.

No one can make plans for sensible investment when there's someone as ignorant, volatile and unpredictable as Trump in charge of the economy.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

No one with any sense is going to invest in restoring American domestic industries that have been priced out of the domestic market by cheaper imports, even if Trump's tariffs do even up the playing field

Trump is a businessman. He understands the ins and the outs of it. I do not believe there are any one-size-fits-all remedies for anything. Everything succeeds or fails because of a formulae. Tariffs are only part of that formulae. You and I may not know what the whole formulae consists of but Trump does.

... because there's no guarantee those tariffs will be continued by the next administration.

That's right. That's why Trump and his adminstration must work like dogs to get as much done as possible, that way the population will see the wisdom in what has been achieved and be eager to elect the next man (or woman) who is keyed in on the same plan.

No one can make plans for sensible investment when there's someone as ignorant, volatile and unpredictable as Trump in charge of the economy.

You call Trump "ignorant, volatile and unpredictable". You should have voted for Biden instead.

 

[steenkh]

Trump is a businessman.

Trump is a failed businessman. He has run most of his businesses into the ground.

He understands the ins and the outs of it.

He has only known how to keep his businesses alive by not sticking to agreements, not paying his bills, and ruining other people.

I do not believe there are any one-size-fits-all remedies for anything. Everything succeeds or fails because of a formulae. Tariffs are only part of that formulae. You and I may not know what the whole formulae consists of but Trump does.

Ah, the multi-dimensional chess myth. Spoken like a true believer.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

the Stock Market has some thoughts on Trump's business acumen.

 

[Vixen]

Trump is a businessman. He understands the ins and the outs of it. I do not believe there are any one-size-fits-all remedies for anything. Everything succeeds or fails because of a formulae. Tariffs are only part of that formulae. You and I may not know what the whole formulae consists of but Trump does.


That's right. That's why Trump and his adminstration must work like dogs to get as much done as possible, that way the population will see the wisdom in what has been achieved and be eager to elect the next man (or woman) who is keyed in on the same plan.

You call Trump "ignorant, volatile and unpredictable". You should have voted for Biden instead.

No, Trump doesn't understand business at all. His economics tutor at Whartons said he was the worst student he had ever had. Trump was only there because of rich Daddy. The guy is a moron. No-one who understands business goes bankrupt six times. Once or twice maybe owing to the risk an entrepreneur has to take and the risk doesn't always pay off. But six times? Including a casino where people are literally throwing their life savings at you, the odds against winning at roulette or blackjack are stacked against the punter and maybe you have a chance at poker. But the punter winning against the house? No, Trump knows nothing about Economics. Nothing. He doesn't understand Jack Shipp. He just enjoys the adrenaline rush of bullying the whole world, like a kid let loose in a sweet shop.


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