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Universal Income.

I've only skimmed the first page so far, but I want to get my thoughts down before going too far on.

I'm for UBI. I think it's a when, rather than an if, because more and more jobs are being automated and more and more jobs are going to be automated, not to mention things like the loss of the high street as people move shopping online and, indeed, as office work moves into the home, sparked by covid. A majority of those jobs will not be able to be replaced by things like retraining as a coder. So the question really is how much human suffering will the government of the day allow before introducing it?

It's definitely an idea that's picked up over the last several years, and I'm heartened that a country so close to home is trialling it.

As to the question for how it's going to be paid for, there are a few facets to that. The first is that it'll be paid for by taxes, just like benefits currently are. The people on higher incomes will be paying back more in taxes than the £100 a week they get, or whatever the amount will end up being. And I've seen reports that a UBI scheme will actually cost less than the current benefits system because it will eliminate so much red tape and sundry other admin. So much of the expenditure on benefits goes into assessing whether people deserve them - whether that be processing applications, or reviewing what the unemployed are required to do in order to ensure that they're keeping up with their commitments. UBI will make the test for whether someone is entitled or not simply be whether or not they're a citizen. Or perhaps even just whether or not they're a resident.

Over all it should boost the economy. It's a very basic tenet of economics that giving money to the poor stimulates the economy. If you give money to the poor, it gets spent on food and the like - in other words, it goes straight back into the economy.

WRT the question of jobs that people don't want to do, there are again a few facets. The first is that it can mean that the more unpleasant jobs
become higher-paid. Fewer people will want to be cleaners, if they don't need to in order to survive. So cleaning jobs will need to be more attractive, which means they will have to pay more. And people will be able to afford to pay more, because they will have more disposable income.

The second is that it could help boost immigration again (and, despite what the right-wing would like you to believe, immigration is good for the economy). One thing that has been illustrated on multiple fronts over the last year or two is that if you kick immigrants out then natives don't take up the jobs that the immigrants were doing. Immigrants often go to a country specifically to do the jobs that natives don't want to do. So there need not be a labour shortage, if thought is applied.

Thirdly, the lack of need for people to justify receiving money can help end other kinds of exploitation. As the UK benefits system currently stands if you've been claiming benefits for a certain amount of time you can be forced to do "work experience". For example, no matter what your qualifications and experience are, you can be made to go stack shelves at a supermarket. This is instead of looking for work. This is also unpaid work, you only get your benefits, which don't add up to minimum wage. There is always the promise that there may be a paid job at the end of the experience (which usually lasts several months, or maybe even a year), but in practice in the vast majority of cases there is no job because it's more economically efficient for the supermarket to get another labourer for free (maybe even subsidised, it's been a while since I last researched this and I can't remember off the top of my head whether the supermarkets, etc, get a kick-back for using unemployed labour) from the government.

So not only does that exploit the worker, who has to work a full-time job for less than minimum wage or lose the social safety net, but it also takes a job off the market, making it harder for everybody to find work. UBI would kill this practice dead.

And one thing that I don't see very often in this particular part of the argument, is the fact that most people want to work. Even if they have enough money to live - even if they win the lottery - most people still want a regular 9 to 5. They may not want **** jobs but, as above, there should be pressure to make bad jobs better, whether that be through making the pay more appealing, or through changing toxic working environments.

I think it would be a massive shock to the system, and there would definitely be a period of adjustment. But I think that the positives would definitely outweigh any of the negatives by a considerable margin.
 
That's now. I'm talking about the future

Call me in 2030

You are joking.

What, you know, evidence do you have for this contention?

I have shown the situation now. One way of predicting the future is to look at the now and draw logical conclusions. Are the jobs in hospitality and services going to disappear in 10 years? No they are not. There will be plenty of jobs in 10 years.

The other way of predicting the future is to make **** up, and declare victory.
 
It is often claimed it will lead to inflation, but does that actually happen in real life?

If you're selling Coke, and I'm selling Pepsi, which one of us is going to be the first to up our prices? Would that be better or worse for the one who does?

We would still be in competition - more money in circulation won't change that, will it?

I'll see if I can find it later - probably tomorrow - but I recently read a meta-analysis that showed that there wasn't a strong correlation between raising minimum wage and increasing inflation. UBI isn't exactly the same, but I think the principles are similar enough for there to be some comparison. If anything UBI would be less likely to raise inflation because it's the government shouldering the costs rather than employers.
 
And there are recent ones, as well as ones in the process of disappearing, or that will disappear in next the decade or two. Here are just a few of the many....

• Attended gas stations (are being replacing by automated gas stations)
• Video rental stores are all but gone
• Cashiers and checkout operators (replaced by self-checkout)
• Flight attendants
• Automotive assembly line workers
• Travel agents (replaced by Trivago et al)
• Bank tellers (replaced by ATMs and online banking)
• Textile workers
• Posties
• Retail jewellers

There are even ones that people don't generally think of. Automated warehouses are already a thing. Imagine if Amazon stopped employing 95% of its warehouse workers. And every supermarket. And so on.

And it's not going to be that long before driverless lorries are a thing. And if you're a haulage company you'll probably shell out the initial start-up cost of getting an AI fleet because you'll save a tonne of costs in wages, insurance will likely be cheaper, and you'll be able to make faster deliveries because there will no longer be laws governing how long your lorries can drive for without taking a break. Yes, there will be some additional maintenance costs, but I think they'll be lower.

I think people tend to underestimate just how much automation there will be in the next few decades.

And can I just point out something about the way this is always framed? Remember back in the 50s when people talked about robots taking over from human workers? It was always framed as enabling humans to live happier lives where they could work less and spend more time on activities they enjoyed. Nowadays it's framed as "yes, but how are we going to put those displaced people to work? Can't have them lazing around!"

I wonder if part of that is driven by the fact that it's mainly blue-collar jobs that are being replaced?
 
So? Unemployed people are offered thousands to go fruit picking, but they don’t take it up.
:sdl: Are you kidding?

By the time you factor in the loss of Newstart allowance plus accommodation costs, most seasonal workers would be out of pocket.

Not to mention that farmers prefer to import seasonal workers because it's cheaper.
 
You are joking.

Nope

What, you know, evidence do you have for this contention?

Oh, just wait. I'll call up my friend, The Doctor, and borrow the Tardis so I can whizz forward in time to 2030 to get you the evidence :rolleyes:

Of course I don't have any ******* evidence!!! It is not possible to have evidence to support an OPINION about what I bloody well think is going to happen IN THE FUTURE!!!!!! That opinion is based on what we have seen historically - and I already posted that but you hand-waved it away.

We have differing opinions on this; you think I'm wrong and I think you are wrong. So be it. Learn to accept that not everyone has to agree with you, and learn not browbeat others just because they don't.
 
:sdl: Are you kidding?

By the time you factor in the loss of Newstart allowance plus accommodation costs, most seasonal workers would be out of pocket.

Not to mention that farmers prefer to import seasonal workers because it's cheaper.

I don’t disagree.

Again, I was countering smartcooky’s contention that there is (or will be, I’m not sure what he is saying) a massive shortage of jobs that unemployed people would love to do if only they were available....
 
I think UBI will also increase the number of job shares, people may only want to work 2 or 3 days a week so a job that used to employ one person will now employ 2, and no one loses out in terms of “job satisfaction”.

It may also help even with the more unpopular jobs (at the moment). For example the seasonal food harvesting in the UK. At the moment the issue is the seasonality, it means it is an unsuitable job for a lot of people, you may find however someone is willing to do that for 3 months a year to earn additional income because it no longer disrupts their entire finances. (Mind you automation will soon remove that entire class of job.)

A prediction of the late 18th and 19th centuries was that with the improvements in technology and automation we would “soon” only have to work 2 or 3 days a week instead of 6 and a half days. Perhaps this will actually happen.

Of course to those of us from the generations who were indoctrinated to believe work/a job was of itself a good thing and that our social standing and personal self-worth was tied to what job we had may struggle to change our attitudes.

I suspect the generations behind us that have been indoctrinated to believe that personal self-worth is not based on externalities in the same way, may better adapt to the er… brave new world…
 
…snip…

I think people tend to underestimate just how much automation there will be in the next few decades.

…snip…

I wonder if part of that is driven by the fact that it's mainly blue-collar jobs that are being replaced?

Actually the biggest change from automation isn’t going to be in the “blue collar” jobs - that’s already happened, it’s going to be in the “white collar” jobs. The working class folk who have been fooled into thinking they are middle class (sorry personal bugbear) because they work in an office are going to be replaced by automation. But even jobs that have long been considered “professional” and highly regarded are going to go. AI is already showing it is as good if not better at for example medical diagnosis than the best humans.
 
Those are mighty low thresholds. Even at minimum wages, it would only take a couple of days a week to wipe out the unemployment benefit.

They all have to pay at least the minimum wage by law and a heap include accommodation.

https://nz.indeed.com/Farm,-Fruit-Picking-With-Accommodation-jobs
Australian employers are penalized for providing accommodation. It is considered a "fringe benefit" for which employers have to pay a hefty tax.
 
Actually the biggest change from automation isn’t going to be in the “blue collar” jobs - that’s already happened, it’s going to be in the “white collar” jobs. The working class folk who have been fooled into thinking they are middle class (sorry personal bugbear) because they work in an office are going to be replaced by automation. But even jobs that have long been considered “professional” and highly regarded are going to go. AI is already showing it is as good if not better at for example medical diagnosis than the best humans.

There are still plenty of blue-collar jobs to go. You yourself mentioned that fruit-picking is likely not too long for this world.

I think you're right that white-collar jobs will go, too, but I think we're a way off from the same kind of impact.

And even if not, that's certainly not where the focus of the conversation is. I suspect that, like Universal Credit being unliveable before the pandemic increase, it's something that will only really start to be seen as a problem when it starts to affect those middle class people, rather than just the working class.

It's one thing for the conversation to be about "lazy scroungers" when you're talking about the poorest in society. It's a different story when you move up the ladder a bit. Similarly, I suspect that when it's middle class jobs that start disappearing en masse, rather than working class jobs, the conversation will start to shift from "we can't just have them laying around all day, being a burden to society" to "isn't it great that people can start to have more free time to pursue more spiritually rewarding goals?"
 
There are even ones that people don't generally think of. Automated warehouses are already a thing. Imagine if Amazon stopped employing 95% of its warehouse workers. And every supermarket. And so on.

And it's not going to be that long before driverless lorries are a thing. And if you're a haulage company you'll probably shell out the initial start-up cost of getting an AI fleet because you'll save a tonne of costs in wages, insurance will likely be cheaper, and you'll be able to make faster deliveries because there will no longer be laws governing how long your lorries can drive for without taking a break. Yes, there will be some additional maintenance costs, but I think they'll be lower.

I think people tend to underestimate just how much automation there will be in the next few decades.
And can I just point out something about the way this is always framed? Remember back in the 50s when people talked about robots taking over from human workers? It was always framed as enabling humans to live happier lives where they could work less and spend more time on activities they enjoyed. Nowadays it's framed as "yes, but how are we going to put those displaced people to work? Can't have them lazing around!"

I wonder if part of that is driven by the fact that it's mainly blue-collar jobs that are being replaced?


Absolutely!

Driverless buses, trains and taxis
Pilotless planes
Fully automated supermarkets, gas stations*, mass market stores (such as K-Mart and The Warehouse)

* Here in Nelson, a city of less than 60,000, there are 16 gas stations - five of them are fully automated (no staff). None of the five are new builds, they were originally fully staffed gas stations that have been converted in the last three three years, and another two are scheduled for conversion by early next year.


Here is a sobering article from August 2018

https://www.insider-trends.com/unmanned-automated-retail-is-this-the-future/

"A report on Kiosk and Retail by USA Technologies and PYMNTS.com predicts that the interactive kiosk sector in the US will be worth more than $1 billion by 2020. It says it has already grown from $533.37 million in 2013 to $716.97 million in 2016. Research and Markets thinks that the automated kiosk market (as it sees it) will be worth $34 billion by 2023."

That's only two years away. My local supermarket has already ditched the four "Express 15 items or less" checkouts, and two other staffed checkouts, and replaced them with six self-checkout kiosks. By 2030, I expect it will be nearly impossible to find a supermarket with staffed checkouts except they might have a "returns" desk. The only other service staff they will have would be specialists such as bakeries and delicatessens, and maybe a coffee counter. The rest will be shelf stackers (if that job has not already been automated).
 
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Obviously countries are different depending on their conditions of the infrastructure, but in NZ the chances of driverless mass transport on our crappy roads any where in the near future is ziltch.
 
Obviously countries are different depending on their conditions of the infrastructure, but in NZ the chances of driverless mass transport on our crappy roads any where in the near future is ziltch.

1. You think our roads are crappy? Have you ever been to the USA? Yeah their Freeways and big city are mostly pretty good, but as for the rest, I've seen better roads in India.

2. https://www.transport.govt.nz/area-...nnovation/autonomous-vehicles-work-programme/

"AV technology has the potential to trigger significant transformation in the transport system. Trials of AVs are underway around the world (including in New Zealand), and opinions vary on when highly autonomous vehicles will be widely available. Many modern vehicles have limited automated features that may assist the driver with speed or steering control, such as lane-keep assist or adaptive cruise control."

"Christchurch Airport has a fully autonomous shuttle designed by Ohmio for public use in restricted areas. The autonomous 20-person shuttle runs along a pre-programmed route, without the need for a driver."
 


Agreed as far as the highlighted. But your conclusion does not necessarily follow, given that "better off" is a subjective assessment.
Yes. I meant better off financially. One problem with current benefit systems is that it is difficult to improve your financial situation by taking low-paid work because this is offset by loss of benefits.

I was responding to Zaganza's argument that UBI means that employers will be assured of employees who are willingly doing a job, as opposed to being compelled to take some job just because they cannot do without the money. That's true enough long term, at least best case it is; but short term, not so much.

As for your specific point, if you're trapped in a job or a business that you dislike, but cannot afford to leave, then being assured of a UBI may see you forego that additional income. At least it might, with low-level, low-paying jobs and businesses -- although probably not if your salary/income is large enough that the UBI amount becomes insignificant in comparison.

I think there will be very few people wanting to live all the time on just a basic income. There might be more people only wanting to work part-time if all they can get is a job they don't enjoy. I don't see that as a problem since it distributes both work and leisure time more equitably. Some people will also be able to use spare time to increase their skills.
 
A UBI society could and should come with creating local marketplaces for voluntarily work that will make for much healthier communities and individuals.
It's very easy to find voluntary work already, isn't it? I think I could fill all my time with it with extremely low search costs and no commute.
 

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