The latest polls (UK Polling report) show a 23 point Conservative lead. More interesting is the commentary:
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UK General Election
- Thread starter Darat
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Corbyn is a mugwump. At least, according to our Foreign Secretary. A "mutton headed old mugwump". This wasn't some aside in an unguarded moment, but in an article written for The Sun. Good old Boris...........always brings a bit of levity to the proceedings.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Interestingly it's a pretty accurate description of Boris himself. The bit about Corbyn presenting a threat to UK interests around the world, coming from someone whose appointment as foreign secretary was filmed producing actual eyerolls when other countries' equivalents were informed of it, was particularly ironic.
As insults go, it's neither particularly stinging nor particularly accurate. From the first definition of mugwump I could Google:
I'm pretty sure that as a leader of a political party, and as someone accused by many (including myself) of firmly steering said party towards the electoral rocks, Corbyn cannot reasonably be said to be independent of party politics.
Boris will have known what it means but I suppose he also thought that it sounded a humourous and "Borislike" insult and was confident that the vast majority of Sun readers didn't know what it meant (I didn't
) and couldn't be bothered to find out.Camillus
Critical Thinker
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Well, considering I'm a member of constituency which supported Owen Smith in his leadership challenge and the comment didn't come from a Corbynite I'm pretty sure it's not just that.
There seems to be a deep feeling among some traditional Labour supporters that they were abandoned during the Blair years and that they have not been listened to. The referendum showed them that they had a voice and that there were other options apart from Labour. Local MPs who come across as not listening (i.e. not going full Brexit) are getting the fall out from that. Coupled with the disconnect between the views of most Labour members and MPs and a not inconsiderable number of the people who (used to) vote Labour (cf. Gordon Brown's encounter with Gillian Duffy) and you've got a recipe for disaster and the voters taking it out on the party.
Corbyn has worsened that whole feeling by being useless and equivocal about just about everything. I still don't know for sure what his views on Brexit actually are and I'm a member of the *********** party he's supposed to be leading.
Camillus
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Conversations with people who've gone out to other constituencies to help campaign or give support. Our constituency is so safe for Labour that an opponent would have to have a golden arse that farted chocolate and £20 notes to be in with a chance so people often go elsewhere to help
Interestingly we hate our local MP but we can't get shot of her. Had a letter round recently saying basically she's done some good work locally so don't bad mouth her too much during the election and maybe we'll be able to get shot of her next time.
MarkCorrigan
Героям слава!
Speaking as someone who voted for Owen Smith, yes.
Corby has some good ideas and he's certainly a likeable and we'll intentioned guy but he has all the leadership of a dead frog and seems perfectly content to Stoke up a weirdly obsessive section of the grassroots at the expense of everyone else. He pushes aside not only the Blairites but also the large sections of the labour party and traditional labour support not caught up in his ultimately doomed crusade for stuff and things and good vibes.
I'd like him as my MP but there's no chance of him being my PM, and I'm not sure I'd want him even if he could win.
It seems to me that Corbyn has really missed a trick here. He could have appeared on TV debating an empty chair and focusing on how TM has run away from the debate. Instead, the TV producers can empty chair them both, and people* will watch a debate between the Greens, UKIP, LibDem, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
*I fear I have a subsequent engagement that evening.
I'm not sure if this has been posted in the thread yet, but if you put in your postcode at www.electoralcalculus.co.uk you can see the "latest prediction using the most advanced polling" for your constituency.
Apparently, my constituency has a 61% chance of being a CON win from LAB, which I find hard to believe given the apparent popularity of my MP. We have county council elections next week so I suspect that will be a good indicator of how the general election might go here.
Apparently, my constituency has a 61% chance of being a CON win from LAB, which I find hard to believe given the apparent popularity of my MP. We have county council elections next week so I suspect that will be a good indicator of how the general election might go here.
Good find, Agatha.
They do set themselves up for a fall by being so definite. The Scotland prediction is an interesting one, with them predicting 10 Tory gains, 10 SNP losses, Labour losing its only seat, and the Lib Dems doubling to 2.
At the moment, overall they are predicting a Conservative majority of 166, and Labour winning only 164 seats. I'd be very surprised if either of these figures are within 30 seats of the actuality.
They do set themselves up for a fall by being so definite. The Scotland prediction is an interesting one, with them predicting 10 Tory gains, 10 SNP losses, Labour losing its only seat, and the Lib Dems doubling to 2.
At the moment, overall they are predicting a Conservative majority of 166, and Labour winning only 164 seats. I'd be very surprised if either of these figures are within 30 seats of the actuality.
Rolfe
Adult human female
Electoral caculus is OK on generalities but some of the underlying assumptions are fairly dodgy and I wouldn't put a lot of weight on an individual seat prediction that seems counter-intuitive.
From what I can gather, electoralcalculus makes the assumption that Brexit voters will go on to vote Tory. I really don't think it's as simple as that. People voted Brexit for all sorts of reasons, including giving Cameron a bloody nose.
I live in a constituency that has old coalfields (committed Labour voters), swathes of farmland (committed Tories) and several towns that rely on both tourism and industry (a mixture of right, left and centrist voters).
The LibDems will almost certainly lose their deposit again if they stand here, so though my inclination is to vote LibDem or Green, I think I may vote Labour despite my antipathy for Corbyn, just to try to prevent the Tory candidate winning.
I live in a constituency that has old coalfields (committed Labour voters), swathes of farmland (committed Tories) and several towns that rely on both tourism and industry (a mixture of right, left and centrist voters).
The LibDems will almost certainly lose their deposit again if they stand here, so though my inclination is to vote LibDem or Green, I think I may vote Labour despite my antipathy for Corbyn, just to try to prevent the Tory candidate winning.
Fairs fair, Corbyn has been working so hard on the Tories campaign it was about time they returned the favour!
burp
Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Hence the reason of no tv debates.
In other news, tories forced by judge to unveil plans for cleaner air, they wanted to keep it schtum till after the elections because it's 'controversial' their words, judge said 'The continued failure of the government to comply with directives and regulations constitutes a significant threat to public health'.
Corbyn won't bother with tv debates unless may does them, something about manholes, probably.
Farron really likes queers nowadays, they're not hellbound after all.
Self titled modern day Gandhi will stand for election, again, the man who survived Hillsborough, the Somme and Trafalgar hasn't revealed where however.
For the sake of balance, the SNP were on question time, in Oxford, go figure.
Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Hence the reason of no tv debates.
In other news, tories forced by judge to unveil plans for cleaner air, they wanted to keep it schtum till after the elections because it's 'controversial' their words, judge said 'The continued failure of the government to comply with directives and regulations constitutes a significant threat to public health'.
Corbyn won't bother with tv debates unless may does them, something about manholes, probably.
Farron really likes queers nowadays, they're not hellbound after all.
Self titled modern day Gandhi will stand for election, again, the man who survived Hillsborough, the Somme and Trafalgar hasn't revealed where however.
For the sake of balance, the SNP were on question time, in Oxford, go figure.
Something I've read is that it might be a reasonable move (yes, yes, I know).
If it's a case of Corbyn and not May, then there is a fear that a TV debate would descend into "attack Corbyn", and I'm not sure he's adept enough to turn that around.
I seem to remember that happening at least in one of the debates where Ed was there and Dave wasn't.
Aepervius
Non credunt, semper verificare
Mid
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I'd put it down to his press team as they're probably the ones deciding this.
The only view I can think of which is at all charitable on this decision is they realise there's nothing they can do to stop the looming electoral crash and they're now just trying to minimise the effect of it. So they decided that they don't want to give any wavering voters a reminder that there's other parties they can vote for apart from Tory and Labour. Rather pathetic really if that's the case.