• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

UK - Election 2015

Francesca R said:
Copycat.
Click to expand...

Hey, I didn't say that it made sense! :D

I think it would be a very poor move for them to make in the long term, as it would expose the reality of the situation and force people to look for alternatives in the following elections.
The current politicians don't seem to look that far down the road, though and most of them are just trying to keep their jobs, at the moment.

It would be interesting to see how the landscape would change, if this were to be the result of the election.
The Liberal response to it could define their entire future, for a start.
 
Depends on your point of view. For example, if you think this "lurch to the right/left" business that is supposedly the optimum remedy whenever either party loses, is thoroughly alienating to voters in the middle and basically stupid.

Anyway I see the (more sensible) evolution of politics as being some kind of thing where parties move to the centre and let disaafected factions split off as they wish. Then if radical populists do end up with their hands on power levers (as opposed to preferring to stay away from grown-up stuff), then they too eventually moderate. And so it continues.
 
Francesca R said:
Depends on your point of view. For example, if you think this "lurch to the right/left" business that is supposedly the optimum remedy whenever either party loses, is thoroughly alienating to voters in the middle and basically stupid.

Anyway I see the (more sensible) evolution of politics as being some kind of thing where parties move to the centre and let disaafected factions split off as they wish. Then if radical populists do end up with their hands on power levers (as opposed to preferring to stay away from grown-up stuff), then they too eventually moderate. And so it continues.
Click to expand...

Makes sense.

My personal feeling is that the centre is also subject to drift. At the moment, in the UK and especially in the US, the current centre is somewhere where the right wing used to be.
 
Francesca R said:
Disagreed I don't believe the SNP will advance the neverendum demand under any post 7/5 circumstance (assuming they are in a position to issue demands). As I said we only have to wait four weeks to find this out.
Click to expand...
Agreed they will not do it as a direct result of the outcome of the UK election, no matter what that may be. But if it produces a UK government with a policy not congenial to Scottish voters, the SNP will take advantage of that. Sturgeon is now talking vaguely about the Scottish government elections next year, as a possible occasion to renew the issue, not necessarily to organise another referendum, of course.
 
I'd agree with both of the last two posts (at the time: 62 + 63), but the problem is that it stops a lot of voters from having a representative vote, as everyone lines up in the middle.
It becomes about winning, rather than standing for something.
This suits the politicians and business leaders, but not the vast majority of voters, in my opinion.

That leads to the creation of parties on the fringes, which is great if you're a wingnut.
If you have a sensible view that's not miles out wide though, you're not going to get much attention.
 
Dissolution said:
I'd agree with both of the last two posts (at the time: 62 + 63), but the problem is that it stops a lot of voters from having a representative vote, as everyone lines up in the middle.
Click to expand...
If only that was the "problem" facing the political system. Seems more like the middle is a vacuum. Hence the bogus stuff about "not standing for something" and "it being about winning".
 
Puppycow said:
Here is a projection of how many seats each party is projected to win in the next election. Of course, it's only an estimate, but for the sake of argument, if this is what happens, what would be the likely result?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

Under this scenario, no party has a majority by itself, and only 2 unlikely combinations of 2 parties add up to a majority: Conservative+Labour or Conservative+SNP.

Conservative+Lib-Dems would fall 12 seats short, so maybe a combination with several minor parties?

Or Labour+SNP+13 seats?
Click to expand...

I see the chart you link to says that 326 seats are needed for a majority. Is this right though? I understand there are 650 seats up for election. Out of these seats four are allocated (at present at least) to the speaker and three deputy speakers - 2 lab, 2 con) so that brings the total number of seats that count in terms of assessing a govt. majority to 646, but if one discounted the 5 Sinn Fein seats (since members do not vote in the Westminster Parliament) then that brings the number of seats in contention to 641. Therefore surely to form a majority, (albeit of one, which wouldn't last long) a party would need 321 seats and that therefore the Conservatives, who had 302 seats at the dissolution of parliament can say they need (assuming they keep all their present seats which is of course unlikely) 19 more seats.
Have I gone wrong somewhere in my calculations?
 
Question is if the SNP will evolve into something like the Parti Quebecois in Canada, constanly using the threat of seperation into getting more goodies for their constituents.
 
dudalb said:
Question is if the SNP will evolve into something like the Parti Quebecois in Canada, constanly using the threat of seperation into getting more goodies for their constituents.
Click to expand...
As above, I believe if they demand an independence referendum or nuclear disarmament then their support for whatever issue will simply be foregone by whichever party is dominant in government.

If they "constantly" make either demand then they will probably simply remove themselves from political influence. Populism usually has to compromise to engage.
 
toto said:
Not according to your link actually! But actually I've seen the parliament web site and as far as I can see I am correct.
Click to expand...

Answering my own question, thinking about it I suppose there is a difference between the terms "outright majority" and "working majority".
 
Darat said:
The SNP had said the independence referendum was a one in a generation chance so they'll not be going back on that.....
Click to expand...

I think it was more of a figure of speech. If Alex Salmond says, "My door is always open!" I doubt we can run up to him and yell "Ha ha! Liar!" when he emerges from the Scottish Parliament men's room.
 
It's quite funny to see talk of a collaboration between the SNP and the Tories, as it's basically happened without the Scottish party needing to get involved.
The Conservatives have been constantly talking up the chances of a party that they claim to hate, simply because they've got absolutely no chance of winning any votes North of the border themselves.
Every seat that the SNP wins is one that Labour can't.
It's quite odd to witness and is pretty underhand, despite the obvious logic to it.
 
Dissolution said:
It's quite funny to see talk of a collaboration between the SNP and the Tories, as it's basically happened without the Scottish party needing to get involved.
The Conservatives have been constantly talking up the chances of a party that they claim to hate, simply because they've got absolutely no chance of winning any votes North of the border themselves.
Every seat that the SNP wins is one that Labour can't.
It's quite odd to witness and is pretty underhand, despite the obvious logic to it.
Click to expand...

Hopefully the SNP will never be able to undermine the security of the UK, rather cut them off

and let them secure their own nuclear umbrella.
What did they say a carrier cost?
What did they say a standing navy and army cost.
A national airline?
 
Peter May said:
Hopefully the SNP will never be able to undermine the security of the UK, rather cut them off

and let them secure their own nuclear umbrella.
What did they say a carrier cost?
What did they say a standing navy and army cost.
A national airline?
Click to expand...
Yes. Cut Scotland off. Then we will decide what nukes we need, what army and navy we need. We fought long enough for the British Empire.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom