UK - Election 2015

[The Don]

Hot on the heels of Labour's outrage over David Cameron saying that he'd serve a full second term if elected (but wouldn't seek a third term), the conservatives have claimed that Labour would raise taxes by £3,028 a household.

This claim, like so many from all sides, does not stand up to scrutiny:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32116129

It's difficult enough to make a choice but moreso when misleading information is presented.

 

[Craig B]

It's difficult enough to make a choice but moreso when misleading information is presented.

Meanwhile, up in the barbarian Northern province things may start to get nasty.

http://eksnp.scot/2015/03/30/an-open-letter-to-michael-mccann/

 

[dudalb]

In an election year, all information presented by all poltical parties should be viewed with extreme skepticism. I generally vote Democratic, but I freely admit that Democrats will lie as badly as Republicans come election time.

 

[Giz]

So, given the SNP's chance of being kingmaker... What odds that this is the last general election of a United Kingdom?

 

[Craig B]

So, given the SNP's chance of being kingmaker... What odds that this is the last general election of a United Kingdom?

I'm not building my hopes up on that. The UK is quite a stable polity, ruled on the whole by prudent politicians; but the evolution of Scottish politics in a different direction from those of England has been very radical and startling.

It seems that Jim Murphy, leader of Labour in Scotland, has produced leaflets for his East Renfrewshire constituency that omit to mention that he’s standing for the Labour Party. If so, that is an ominous sign for the future of the Union of the countries.

ETA According to the Scottish Daily Mail, David Mundell, the only Tory defending a Scottish constituency has also omitted any mention of his party in his election leaflet.

 

[Puppycow]

Here is a projection of how many seats each party is projected to win in the next election. Of course, it's only an estimate, but for the sake of argument, if this is what happens, what would be the likely result?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

Under this scenario, no party has a majority by itself, and only 2 unlikely combinations of 2 parties add up to a majority: Conservative+Labour or Conservative+SNP.

Conservative+Lib-Dems would fall 12 seats short, so maybe a combination with several minor parties?

Or Labour+SNP+13 seats?

 

[Craig B]

Here is a projection of how many seats each party is projected to win in the next election. Of course, it's only an estimate, but for the sake of argument, if this is what happens, what would be the likely result?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

Under this scenario, no party has a majority by itself, and only 2 unlikely combinations of 2 parties add up to a majority: Conservative+Labour or Conservative+SNP.

Conservative+Lib-Dems would fall 12 seats short, so maybe a combination with several minor parties?

Or Labour+SNP+13 seats?

Intersting that it puts the Tories so far ahead of Labour 287 to 271. That's quite a gap to bridge.

A Lab-Lib Dem coalition, however, if it had a supply and confidence deal with the SNP might be able to form an administration.

 

[Puppycow]

Intersting that it puts the Tories so far ahead of Labour 287 to 271. That's quite a gap to bridge.

A Lab-Lib Dem coalition, however, if it had a supply and confidence deal with the SNP might be able to form an administration.

Would the SNP join in any conceivable government, say with Labour?
Lab-SNP-Lib Dem for example?

 

[Craig B]

Would the SNP join in any conceivable government, say with Labour?
Lab-SNP-Lib Dem for example?

No. I have stated that I really can't see this; that SNP MPs would join a UK cabinet. Anyway as recent events show, Lab-SNP relations are as bad as can be.

What has been suggested is an issue by issue confidence and supply arrangement with Lab (and its Lib Dem harlots if they decide to change "protectors" and form a coalition with Labour). But that would come at a price - real implementation of the "Vow" and cancellation of Trident replacement - that Lab may decide, even in extremis, not to pay.

 

[Francesca R]

Here is a projection of how many seats each party is projected to win in the next election.

Those numbers are very close to betting markets so I suspect that is where they come from. The figures have hardly changed in the last two months and they don't seem likely to change now. They build in a bias relative to opinion poll based projections showing the tories doing a little better and the SNP doing a little worse (but still a landslide compared to now). Betting odds also favour UKIP keeping the two defection seats it has now and getting Thanet (Farage) and maybe one other.

 

[Francesca R]

Would the SNP join in any conceivable government, say with Labour?

The recent UK experience is that small parties are ill advised to join coalitions and compromise is reviled. See the post directly above mine for a perfect example. The SNP would have to formally concede policies that it probably can't bring itself to do. Which is a form of denial.

Minority governments might turn out to be quite stable. The Con-Lib coalition was much more stable than doom mongers forewarned. But it is not as if the UK is going to swing back to two party dominance so one way or another it has to get used to this stuff.

 

[angrysoba]

Would the SNP join in any conceivable government, say with Labour?
Lab-SNP-Lib Dem for example?

No. I have stated that I really can't see this; that SNP MPs would join a UK cabinet. Anyway as recent events show, Lab-SNP relations are as bad as can be.

What has been suggested is an issue by issue confidence and supply arrangement with Lab (and its Lib Dem harlots if they decide to change "protectors" and form a coalition with Labour). But that would come at a price - real implementation of the "Vow" and cancellation of Trident replacement - that Lab may decide, even in extremis, not to pay.

I'm going to assume it is either Lib-Lab-SNP or Con-Dem will scrape another win.

I think SNP would form a coalition with Labour and Lib Dems if asked, but would have a good bargaining position. Another referendum? A greater commitment to DEVO MAX? They presumably could demand something big.

Here's another possibility that may be a bit conspiratorial:

SNP would go into coalition with Conservatives who will agree to Scottish independence as a reward. Tories will get an outright majority in the RUK elections.

 

[Francesca R]

It looks like Con will get most seats and have first try. LibDem will probably agree to a coalition. Then we are led to believe that the SNP will try to "lock Cameron out" though they will likely need more than Labour to help that. Therafter it is Labour's turn to try a minority coalition.

 

[malicus]

It looks like Con will get most seats and have first try.

Cameron will get first try as sitting Prime Minister, number of seats be damned. As an aside, I believe Gordon Brown waived his right in 2010 to attempt to form a coalition as he believed it wasn't the done thing, Labour having won fewer seats.

LibDem will probably agree to a coalition life-ring.

Slight editing for reality.

Then we are led to believe that the SNP will try to "lock Cameron out" though they will likely need more than Labour to help that.

The figures could turn out to be extremely evenly poised for a Queen's Speech vote.

Therafter it is Labour's turn to try a minority coalition.

Odds on Cameron calling a snap election after an unsuccessful two weeks trying to form a government? Can this happen? Doubt Labour could afford another campaign.

 

[Darat]

Trident is still apparently a red line for the SNP which would mean they couldn't make a coalition with either Labour or Conservatives as any defence budget will include provision for trident.

 

[malicus]

Trident is still apparently a red line for the SNP which would mean they couldn't make a coalition with either Labour or Conservatives as any defence budget will include provision for trident.

Absolutely. And for this I cannot see how a formal coalition including the SNP would form. Labour are certainly not going to cede 'defence of the realm' in any negotiation. It would be political suicide to give that away in any deal. Anyways, the main three leader's coatpegs are getting increasingly shoogly with one sure to fall in the two weeks post-election (if not two) - merciful in it's way as it then becomes SEP.

 

[Craig B]

Here's another possibility that may be a bit conspiratorial:

SNP would go into coalition with Conservatives who will agree to Scottish independence as a reward. Tories will get an outright majority in the RUK elections.

Tories give up half the country to greedy Commie Union-Jack-hating Jocks? They'd be lucky to save their deposits.

 

[CapelDodger]

Odds on Cameron calling a snap election after an unsuccessful two weeks trying to form a government? Can this happen?

No; the Queen (Gawd bless 'Er) would be obliged to call on the next party leader who then gets a try. If deadlock ensues another election will be called.

 

[CapelDodger]

Absolutely. And for this I cannot see how a formal coalition including the SNP would form. Labour are certainly not going to cede 'defence of the realm' in any negotiation.

I wouldn't be so sure. This would happen after the votes were cast, and the case for cancelling Trident is a good one, especially if it's linked with better equipment and conditions for the services. I don't think Trident is the icon politicians assume it is.

 

[Francesca R]

When I moved to the UK from NZ the Labour party was briefly in favour of nuclear disarmament. It might be a hundred years too early for them to be going back to that but maybe one day . . .